Quote:
Originally Posted by MadDogMoody
In spots where the spr is > 1 then, you consider what the equity on a call will be against a shove on the turn then, is this just because you never see the river without any further investment in to the pot from yourself.
With the resulting SPR and the situation being what it is, you can correctly conclude that the BB will end up stacking off with a high % of his range on every turn. So what you can do to estimate the EV of a flop call is:
1) assume BB shoves every turn with his entire range;
2) assume you play "perfectly" on the turn -- i.e., fold bad turns to a shove (like threes and fours and some other bad cards);
3) add up your EV on every single turn card, multiplied by the likelihood of that card falling -- our EV on cards you fold ends up being $0.00, and on cards we stack off it ends up being some positive value;
4) subtract the flop call from that number.
What you can do instead of #2 is assume that you play "reasonably" -- assuming you make specific "realistic" mistakes. For example, against the range I chose that we have 36% equity against, we should apparently be folding some diamond turns and even the offsuit sixes. Incorrectly stacking off on those cards hurts our EV by about 14 cents.