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plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot?

08-24-2015 , 01:06 AM
    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37079287

    BTN: $8.94 (89.4 bb)
    SB: $12.06 (120.6 bb)
    BB: $10 (100 bb)
    UTG: $10 (100 bb)
    MP: $8.45 (84.5 bb)
    Hero (CO): $14.59 (145.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q T 9 8
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.45, MP calls $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

    Flop: ($4.40) 4 T 3 (3 players)
    BB bets $2.45, 2 folds

    Spoiler:
    Results: $4.40 pot ($0.19 rake)
    Final Board: 4 T 3
    BB mucked and won $4.21 ($2.76 net)
    MP mucked and lost (-$1.45 net)
    Hero mucked Q T 9 8 and lost (-$1.45 net)



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    jam, call or fold on the flop?
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 03:05 AM
    I prefer to widen my 3b range there with this hand generally , but depends on how much MP has been opening and how wild the left is.

    BB won't be scared of this flop with AA, KK, QQ, JJ and a decent portion of his AA wil have connectiont to he T43 increasing confidence, the rest will be close tot he T with some 56 57 . Folding is not an option, raising is fruitless, so I would just call, and yield no further fruit.

    plo is weird though, because often times calling half a pot is like calling an all in. We can comfortably fold 6 turn cards, but not folding an A or K.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 05:19 AM
    A non-diamond turn is definitely a fold. K is close (fold >= call). the rest is a stack-off except for 3's and 4's and non-diamond 5's and 2's. so we can stack-off on 60% turns and it is slightly better than folding the flop.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 07:24 AM
    Half pot, we're getting 3:1 on a call therefore needing 25% equity vs villains hand to continue. With top pair and 3 other cards which we assume to be live if villain has a very tight 3-bet range then we are in good shape ~60/40 dog.

    I call, shoving QT89 turns of which we are going to hit 22% of the time so we are getting pretty close to pot odds on a call, We can fold any 3/4 as paired board is rather poor for our hand if villain has tight 3-bet range.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 03:03 PM
    are we better just jamming OTF with likely ~40%. Just seems that calling the flop to fold to a lot of turns isn't great????
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 07:05 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cashnotakite
    are we better just jamming OTF with likely ~40%. Just seems that calling the flop to fold to a lot of turns isn't great????
    Our equity vs AA is ~40%, it will of course vary the wider villains 3-bet range is. Getting it in with top pair here will ultimately be a loosing play considering it looks like we have very little FE so villain will call off a lot in this spot.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 07:22 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MadDogMoody
    Half pot, we're getting 3:1 on a call therefore needing 25% equity vs villains hand to continue.
    Pot odds can't be used this way. Villain's bet is not an all-in -- there is money behind. You're going to need much closer to 40% with this type of hand to continue.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cashnotakite
    Just seems that calling the flop to fold to a lot of turns isn't great????
    It's definitely neutral EV at worst with this hand when we have ~40% equity, and it will be a clear improvement over shoving when you have little fold equity.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 07:28 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
    Pot odds can't be used this way. Villain's bet is not an all-in -- there is money behind. You're going to need much closer to 40% with this type of hand to continue.



    It's definitely neutral EV at worst with this hand when we have ~40% equity, and it will be a clear improvement over shoving when you have little fold equity.
    When you say 40% in order to continue with this hand is this just because of the implied betting on the turn?
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 07:39 PM
    Yeah exactly.

    Seems to be around 36% in this spot.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 08:10 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
    Yeah exactly.

    Seems to be around 36% in this spot.
    Is this based on villain betting half pot hence is likely to bet similar amount on the turn?
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 09:39 PM
    There will be $6.10 left in a $9.30 stack on the turn, so it'll be a shove.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-24-2015 , 11:05 PM
    call, u have great odds and there's so many good turns (diamonds, 7, 6, J, and 89TQ obv)
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-25-2015 , 08:31 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
    There will be $6.10 left in a $9.30 stack on the turn, so it'll be a shove.
    In spots where the spr is > 1 then, you consider what the equity on a call will be against a shove on the turn then, is this just because you never see the river without any further investment in to the pot from yourself.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote
    08-26-2015 , 01:40 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MadDogMoody
    In spots where the spr is > 1 then, you consider what the equity on a call will be against a shove on the turn then, is this just because you never see the river without any further investment in to the pot from yourself.
    With the resulting SPR and the situation being what it is, you can correctly conclude that the BB will end up stacking off with a high % of his range on every turn. So what you can do to estimate the EV of a flop call is:

    1) assume BB shoves every turn with his entire range;
    2) assume you play "perfectly" on the turn -- i.e., fold bad turns to a shove (like threes and fours and some other bad cards);
    3) add up your EV on every single turn card, multiplied by the likelihood of that card falling -- our EV on cards you fold ends up being $0.00, and on cards we stack off it ends up being some positive value;
    4) subtract the flop call from that number.

    What you can do instead of #2 is assume that you play "reasonably" -- assuming you make specific "realistic" mistakes. For example, against the range I chose that we have 36% equity against, we should apparently be folding some diamond turns and even the offsuit sixes. Incorrectly stacking off on those cards hurts our EV by about 14 cents.
    plo10z QT89 on T34 R stack-off in 3-bet pot? Quote

          
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