hy guys,

villain is a reg: 32/20/7; 3bet sb/bb 5; cbet hu as 3bettor 60%

What do you think about this hand? imho preflop no way: hero never fold; flop?

bye

We need like 35,5% to make pushing profitable

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

7,626,820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 295

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
5%	60.02%	4,562,785	30,168
ts9sqd7d	39.98%	3,033,867	30,168

But this assumes he calls every time, so the real math would be a bit different (since he's probably not calling naked overcards).

I do however think that in this exact spot pushing is slightly preferable to calling and folding turns unimproved, since there arent a lot of money left in stacks and there arent that many good turns for us.

I dont want to derail this thread but what is the math behind this?
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only folding flop is a mistake here

Oops, it seems I have made a math mistake that actually makes a bit of a difference).
On the flop effective stacks are: 93-15.5=77.5
So if we assume that villain goes with it on flop every time, we are putting in 77.5 into a pot of 188, so we need 41.2% actually, which my simulation suggests that we dont have. I guess this makes calling a better option (since I dont think we can just outright fold this, seems way too nitty)

However, after thinking about this a bit more, I think pushing is still the better play, since villain can sometimes make a mistake by folding a hand with enough equity to call, something like AhKh8c7c or AhKhQcJc (basically naked overcards that do have like 40% against our hand)

i call flop and hope to improve on turn, also bluff a lot of turns when checked to

call and reevaluate turn

I push flop... I know we are getting a good price but I think we get some folds and we won't improve on many turns and villain will have under one psb. His visibility will be better than ours on most turns.

how?

Call imo. We use the advantages of position and a wide perceived range on a lot of turns.