Interesting hand.
On flop, we definitely have a range advantage, no matter how tight/liberal you get with the ranges. Let’s say villain is opening 22% from MP, folds the weakest part of his opening range to your 3b, 4b’s all AA and the best KK. We can assign him a 3%-18% range to the flop. And let’s say we are 3betting 12% here:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6s
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
12% | 53.6505% | 51.9055% | 3.4900% | 311433 | 20940 | |
3%-18% | 46.3495% | 44.6045% | 3.4900% | 267627 | 20940 | |
The range 3%-18% contains 30,827 hands. As some have suggested, he can c/r all pr+draw hands, along with stronger hands such as sets/2pr:
Against this range we have to fold:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6s
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
4sAdAcJc | 33.1488% | 32.9277% | 0.4423% | 197566 | 2654 | |
3%-18%KK,JJ,66,K... | 66.8512% | 66.6300% | 0.4423% | 399780 | 2654 | |
However, this range contains only 12,883 hands, or 41.8% of his range. Therefore, a bet/fold of $22 shows an immediate profit of $10.88 if he c/r his entire continuing range and c/f the rest.
($34.50 * (1 - .418)) – ($22 * .418) = $10.88
Plus, we get the added benefit of denying the rest of his range his equity:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6s
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
4sAdAcJc | 67.7494% | 66.5648% | 2.3692% | 399389 | 14215 | |
3%-18%!(KK,JJ,66,K... | 32.2506% | 31.0660% | 2.3692% | 186396 | 14215 | |
I think betting the flop is far and away our best option.
On the turn, if we assign him wraps, flush draws, and all hands that beat us, we can peel:
ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.22 Professional)
Board - JdKc6sKd
600000 trials (randomized)
All-in Equity
| Equity % | Wins Hi % | Ties Hi % | Wins Hi Count | Ties Hi Count | |
---|
4sAdAcJc | 31.0834% | 30.9545% | 0.2578% | 185727 | 1547 | |
3%-18%KK,JJ,66,K,Q... | 68.9166% | 68.7877% | 0.2578% | 412726 | 1547 | |
On the river, our showdown value is pretty terrible against that range and with our Ad I think it’s a mandatory bluff spot. We don’t have to go too big because we are repping a pretty wide value range. $52 sounds about right.