I am loosing money calling rivers so I would love to hear your opinions about this hand.


PLUS for calling river:
- There are alot of missed draws, both flushes and straight draws
- The straight he is repping is not the most likely straightdraw he got
- 2 of the straight draws that got there are backdoor straights

MINUS for calling river:
- There are 3 different combos of straights (missed this when hand was live)
- I think it's a wierd amount to bluff with
- I think he is less inclined to bluff with a donk bet than if we were for example OOP and checked to him

All in all after analysing the hand I think I have to fold, the reason i diden't do it live is because I missed there is acually 3 possible straights on the board and I dodnt really consider both the "DONK bluff" and the bet size eoungh.

What do you guys think? is it a clear fold?
Poker Stars $10.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $14.68 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 6, AF: 3,8, Hands: 21633
SB: $15.66 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 4,4, Hands: 134
BB: $20.78 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 12,7, Hands: 421
UTG: $11.39 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2,3, Hands: 93
MP: $10.97 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 6, 3B: 7, AF: 0,0, Hands: 33
CO: $11.87 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 6, 3B: 2, AF: 3,5, Hands: 127

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 7 6 J 2
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, SB calls $0.20, 1 fold

I open preflop cuz they are tight and i bet flop and river for protection against alot of draws.

Flop: ($0.60) 6 J T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.60) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, SB calls $1.20

River: ($4.00) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $1.91

I don't like your thought process in how you are dividing between plus and minus for a decision, they all need a value or score next to them which are relative to each other and so meaningful. It is good to split binary as 3 gears don't run together in an inuitive way. But the sole factor is weight of combos, which is the same as combos. It is too complex to express in your system and will lead to mistakes, i.e 'it is good to call because of back door' has reverse implieds against it. The assumption of supervision is a form of tilt and is disrespecting the opposition or even over respecting he opposition. The split between call and not call is also not productive. It should be qualitative - mistake or not mistake. They have different behaviours to achieve the result between call fold etx but functionally or algebraically they are the same term within the equation. Measured by ev of course. The goal is to ignore how much ev something has, only distinguish between if the gradient of profit is going up or down. The goal is to min.max your own decisions relative to mistakes and not mistakes. losing and winning. Semantically it gets confusing - you can associate aggression with winning because it worked in the past. The winning combo being backdoor is pretty much considered one of his outs on the flop. Which is dramatically bigger : the less flop outs he seems to have.

Preflop your hand is trash and your sizing will get very wide calls, if the blinds are nitty and make the same decisions depending on if its pot size or 2.5x then that makes it fine. A 24vpip SB is playing more than half the time, his range will be stronger than yours always if he continues but you have position, so preflop you are pot betting this to maximise fold equity and positional edge, you ahve to work on minising your losses when the time arrives, and should be recognising preflop that this skill will be needed very often wheny our hand contains low rank, low connectivity, low suit dominance. It is perfectly viable to avoid this spot altogether because all edge has to have enough implied skill advantage for the play to prosper. His stats also are respectable.

It makes little ends that you chose to 2.5x but small drops weather big rocks.

On flop the board is wet so expect a wide continuing range, this also means that you are pot sizing and reducing from the meax (PSB) based uppon how ofteny ou are raise folding, which you wil be doing here vs a PSB re raise, with the exception of calling against some fish.

Turn is most certainly a pot size bet needed.

River is going to be read based and any option is open.