PL50 Heads-up Variance?
10-01-2015
, 04:55 AM
Hey,
I have been a regular NLHE Heads-up player on PokerStars for years, and I recently switched to play PLO HU since the beginning of June 2015.
At first, I watched almost all of the videos about this type of game on cardrunners, because I never played PLO before, it took me about a week to adapt to this new type of game. I have only been playing $0.25/$0.50 and only against fish, so I'm kind of a bumhunter.
For the first 3 months, from June to the end of August, I won about $3,000 after 110k hands (7.81 BB/100), in that period of time, I witnessed about more than 10 days where I lost ~$500, and about 5 days where I lost more than $1,000, which I convinced myself that it is really normal to lose more than 20 buy-ins a day (2000 hands played each day). The same goes for winning.
Then since the beginning of September until now, I lost $3,500 over 27k hands (-26.34 BB/100), with 5 days of -$500 downswing and 2 days of -$1,250 each. Overall, I lost all my winnings after rake in just a month, even though the FPP I earned could be traded to more than $4,000.
Generally speaking, at first I thought it was just a really big downswing, but now I'm having doubts that I might actually not be good enough and there are many important leaks in my play which I could not realize myself, and the 3-month streak winning was just a huge upswing.
So what I'm gonna do is to take a short break and do something to figure this out, and because I'm not good at analyzing graphs and variance, I hope you guys might take a quick look and enlighten me a little bit.
The first picture presents my overall statistics, second picture shows the period of time during the first 3 months, and the last picture shows the recent "downswing".
Thanks for your help.
I have been a regular NLHE Heads-up player on PokerStars for years, and I recently switched to play PLO HU since the beginning of June 2015.
At first, I watched almost all of the videos about this type of game on cardrunners, because I never played PLO before, it took me about a week to adapt to this new type of game. I have only been playing $0.25/$0.50 and only against fish, so I'm kind of a bumhunter.
For the first 3 months, from June to the end of August, I won about $3,000 after 110k hands (7.81 BB/100), in that period of time, I witnessed about more than 10 days where I lost ~$500, and about 5 days where I lost more than $1,000, which I convinced myself that it is really normal to lose more than 20 buy-ins a day (2000 hands played each day). The same goes for winning.
Then since the beginning of September until now, I lost $3,500 over 27k hands (-26.34 BB/100), with 5 days of -$500 downswing and 2 days of -$1,250 each. Overall, I lost all my winnings after rake in just a month, even though the FPP I earned could be traded to more than $4,000.
Generally speaking, at first I thought it was just a really big downswing, but now I'm having doubts that I might actually not be good enough and there are many important leaks in my play which I could not realize myself, and the 3-month streak winning was just a huge upswing.
So what I'm gonna do is to take a short break and do something to figure this out, and because I'm not good at analyzing graphs and variance, I hope you guys might take a quick look and enlighten me a little bit.
The first picture presents my overall statistics, second picture shows the period of time during the first 3 months, and the last picture shows the recent "downswing".
Thanks for your help.
