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PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn

09-28-2014 , 05:43 PM
villain 31/5 over 30 hands

    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (SB): $25 (100 bb)
    BB: $51.94 (207.8 bb)
    UTG: $24.80 (99.2 bb)
    MP: $7.29 (29.2 bb)
    CO: $23.57 (94.3 bb)
    BTN: $53.65 (214.6 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K K A 8
    2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.80, BB folds, CO calls $1.95

    Flop: ($5.85) 5 J 4 (2 players)
    Hero bets $3.90, CO calls $3.90

    Turn: ($13.65) 3 (2 players)
    Hero ?



    Std spot really. What's the best route to take here? I'm a little bit afraid that he'll bet a J or QQ when checked to and I'll be folding the best hand. So would you still advocate just c/f this because he'll mostly check this back and only bet 2p+ or would you go for sth else?
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-28-2014 , 06:07 PM
    pot/call
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-28-2014 , 07:48 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
    pot/call
    Sounds terrible, we have basically no equity if we get it in. I think check/decide is the only option and I would probably check/fold against most people. If he will always stab when checked to you can very easily exploit that. His flop range should have a decent amount of pair+gutter hands and stuff that improve on this turn. You will ofcourse get bluffed off the best hand sometimes but I don't think you can do much with this hand and I think our range should be able to handle it anyway. Can just start checkraising our straights more often.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-28-2014 , 08:19 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Made man
    Sounds terrible.
    It sure does.

    But run the sims.

    This turn doesn't help a tight opener (RFI of ~15-20% or so -- not PPT 15-20% ofc) as much as you think it does. If you always get it in with ~8% or so equity, you are getting a lot of folds.

    x/f-ing should be at least as good, however, if you expect villain to go into auto-checkdown mode with worse hands.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-28-2014 , 08:31 PM
    Given that he called the flop that should change his range a lot no? Don't think that sim should be very accurate. Even if we entertain the idea that its accurate it still sounds like we valuebet for him, fold our everything we beat and force a really ****ty spot just to avoid not getting bluffed out by random hands we have beat. If he overstabs I think adjusting like I mentioned earlier should be better than pot/calling our entire range here.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-28-2014 , 08:59 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Made man
    Given that he called the flop that should change his range a lot no?
    Of course. And it did.

    Eh, I accidentally closed the window I was doing them in, otherwise I would've posted them.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Made man
    Even if we entertain the idea that its accurate it still sounds like we valuebet for him, fold our everything we beat and force a really ****ty spot just to avoid not getting bluffed out by random hands we have beat.
    In general, it can definitely be correct to bet (or raise) a hand that mostly gets called by better and folds out worse. This is often the case when 1) villain's folding range has a lot of equity, and 2) you'll struggle to realize your equity after taking a more passive line.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-28-2014 , 09:11 PM
    I'm not arguing that type of bet has no merit ever, it just strikes me as a sub-optimal play in this particular situation. Seems strange not to have a checking range because we force folds by potting here. Balancing our checking range should be a better adjustment against a very stabby opponent.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-29-2014 , 08:11 AM
    It's only 30 hands and this guy is likely fishy, so I'm not really concerned about balancing my range and stuff. To me it seems way more likely that he'll just play his hand and not worry about anything else.
    Given that, I feel like 543 and me having an at least somewhat relevent 8 blocker makes the spot good enough to b/c and hope he almost always folds.

    Ingame however I decided to check and was facing a 1/2p bet.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-29-2014 , 09:23 PM
    i check. 31/5 pre stats is enough for me to assume he's on the passive side post as well.
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote
    09-30-2014 , 03:18 AM
    meh, i probably check/fold
    PL25: overpair in 3b pot, bad turn Quote

          
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