BTN is a 25/17/5,8 reg, steal from BU 57%, vs 3bet 29%fold-56%call-15%4bet

Easy c/c? Rest of line looks good.

I'd say it's close between c/c and c/f no? What is he supposed to be bluffing with here, I don't really think he turns too many 2pairs into bluffs here, and he can certainly have tons of AJT8, 9876 kind of hands. Sure he can have some AJJ5 plays but not sure that's enough combos/he even calls the turn.

If there was more money left it'd be more interesting, as it is we'd be getting around 6/1. Agree if villain bets we aren't winning a whole lot, but we really can't fold.

We've only invested 130$ and still have 270$ left?

Boof sorry, didn't realize was 200bbs, sorry OP.

Guess it is close between c/c and c/f. If villain bets can't see how it is anything other than nuts or a bluff, but do see a lot of TJ in villain's range... Would probably come down to reads/dynamic for me: how floaty is villain, how does he perceive your barrelling range, your river nittiness/likelihood to hero call...

what the range can have villain to bluff that calls turn bet?

turn bet it's ok? we are bet/calling?

Think villain has a lot of rundowns (and some pair+rundown like TT89, QJJ9) that have a piece on turn like pair/two pair + bdfd + gs/oe. He could turn any of them into a bluff.

I like b/c turn.

As played I think you can c/f the river. Villain called your cbet in a 3bet pot on A95r. If he gets to this river with enough air to be over-bluffing, good for him. It probably means he's playing very badly. Either calling flop too light or turning hands that are too strong into a bluff. In either case that's not going to work out well for him.

Like, are we really concerned that he called our cbet with 234, and then bet turn + river? How many of those can he have?

Or that he called flop with AKT7, went for a merged (bad) turn bet, and is now bluffing the river with TPTK?

My point is that he really have to walk the dark path of floating gutshots on rainbow ace high boards vs your 3bet range if he's going to get to the river with a lot of bluffs. If that's what he's doing, he's lighting money on fire.

I might be missing something but it doesn't really add up to me as a spot we should be calling a hand as low in our range as A8.

Do you expect this reg to raise turn with 76? Somewhat relevant on different runouts with blank rivers etc.

I dont see much value in betting river as Im not expecting better to fold (AQ, sets) and were not getting calls from worse. So the question is if we think he bluffs with any part of his river range. Most likely not. I do although expect him to check back more often then he will bet.

We can probably valuebet QQ and AA if we want to force bluffcatches from sets and twopairs. So a reasonable betting range OTR would be QQ+, straights and possibly JJ/TT blockers. We can add 77/66 if we end up bluffing too rarely with only the J and T blockers.