[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
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SB: $26.49 (106 bb)
BB: $25.59 (102.4 bb)
MP: $22.88 (91.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $30.06 (120.2 bb)
BTN: $26.24 (105 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3 A A 6
MP folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) K A K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.10) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($12.10) J (2 players)
BB bets $5.79, Hero ?

BB 44/8/42%coldcall/24%agg
Flop stats: foldtocbet 65%, riasetocbet 15%

Flat or shove?

If BB only raise turn with AK and KK, his range on the river is around 60% AK, 40% KK. If he is always raising this hands and calling a shove with both, obviusly we should shove.

He is betting small too, that is another factor in consideration to heavy his range towards AK, so this is a spot about assuptions I guess, would like to hear yours

We have the 2nd nuts here, villian is probably raising all Kboats, I ship it. Like seriously, you give him a range of only AK/KK we have 65% and that range is pretty absurd. Villian would have to be some special kind of nit for me not to shove. Also they should very rarely ever have KK in their range as KK should probably 3-bet pre against a CO open. I think you are overthinking this, just rip it in.

Honestly thought this post was a joke at first, but I guess you're serious. I think your math is wrong. Off the top of my head villain should have AK (and worse) way more often than 60%.

It's about 66% AK, 33% KK against a range that tight but I don't think that should be the point of this conversation as that is a minor equity difference, the real problem here is the extreme nit going on.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

1,476 trials (Exhaustive)

board: KAK7J

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAd3h6c	82.45%	1,217	0
8%-50% & (AK**, KK**)	17.55%	259	0

You said it yourself, you have to discount KK due to no 3bet. If villain never 3bets ever its ~65%.

I don't think is absurd to give villain a range of AK,KK and some random unlikely bluff for villain miniraising turn, at least raising anything more for value would be overplaying his hands imo. (And this rec seems more passive than aggressive)

Range distribution of villain with this assumption on river is exactly 62% AK, 38% KK, excluding a range of 3bet oop of 3%. (His range of 3bet oop is around 2%, doesn't change too much against any position)

Yeah, if the case was villain 3bets more often, the likely of him holding AK instead of KK would increase.

I am agree this is a ship anyway because he is more likely to hold AK at the end, but I don't think this discussion is so terrible neither.

This question makes sense at 300BB, not 100BB

This, always jamming AINEC

I flat and expect to lose a lot. Passive players are always afraid of AA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFRbZJXjWIA

LMAO

Without even thinking my instinct is to go broke here. So much value that you're beating here, basically Kxxx and lots of boats. Being scared of KK is so so nitty, especially after villain flats pre.

Mostly they are but with AK on AKK I don't think many are going to be that afraid of it unless we give them a reason to be. Min-r turn could be a number of things. It could be KK as that's a standard fishy line. It could also be another boat (AK most likely) trying to find out where it's at and then setting their own price on the river.

A passive villain not 3b pre doesn't really exclude KK from their range but it's still more likely he has AK.

This type of rec player is probably x/c-ing KK again to x/r the river somewhat more often than he'd do with AK.

They get really "fancy" with the ultra nuts , for example:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/38...raise-1617940/

you always 3-bet bad kings in the blinds to LP raises?

I don't 3-bet all of them but certainly way more than half of kings, probably around top 60-70% kings. I'm not really in reality right now though as I am doing a 0-$x challenge right now and the competition is laughable at best at the micros on american sites.

Villain has some KK combos in his range, no doubt about that, just the fact that he flats removes a heap of them.

He has an 8% pfr. No mention of a 3-bet stat. I guarantee that he doesn't 3-bet the overwhelming majority of KK hands.

His 3bet oop vs late is 2% exactly, so you are right.

I think just flatting is very reasonable. guys with those stats and this line have KK a ton.