Hi All,

My main game is Omaha 6Max and I am playing on a site, which has good amount loose/passive fishy players and the regs are TAG/LAG type.

My strategy has been to isolate bad players by raising IP with wide range and out-playing them post-flop. I lean towards more cautious lines, if regs get involved in the hand.

After a month, I am showing +1300 BB profit, but my EV graph is stagnant at 0. My NSDW is also negative, but I know that it is because generally I want to see a lot of flops and fold early the hands that I missed.


Overall stats:
VPIP 36,6
PFR 22,5
3Bet 6,4
Agg 2,98
WTSD% 28
W$SD% 45,9

[links deleted]

My question is that if I should be worried about the +-0 graph and is the profit I am currently making merely because I have been lucky with my draws? Should I start tightening up my game?

Is it theoretically possible to make profit with 0-EV in the long run or is there some profit that is not explained by EV? If I look up the same graphs in holdem, they are all increasing steadily.

I would appreciate any word of advice.

You can't make long term profit with long term 0 EV. However your short term EV has a lot of how you're running in it.
Imagine 2 scenarios where you have AAxx and are repotting pre
In example 1 you shove all in for 100bb
In example 2 you raise to 99bb and shove ai on flop.
Your Allin EV will look drastically different though your real EV will be the same.

Not to mention how you're running with runouts in Non showdown hands.

Thank you for your response, Sir OmahaDonk.

After your comment, I took a look into my hand history and realized that the All-in EV is skewed in short term, indeed.

Here is another example:

***** History for hand XXXXXXXXXX *****
Table: Chongqing [532537630] (POT_LIMIT OMAHA_HI €0.02/€0.04, Real money)
User: Hero
Button: seat 8
Players in round: 6 (6)
Seat 2: Villain1 (€8.80)
Seat 4: Villain2 (€18.82)
Seat 7: Villain3 (€6.50)
Seat 8: Villain4 (€12.39)
Seat 9: Villain5 (€4.12)
Seat 10: Hero (€12.72)
Villain5 posts small blind (€0.02)
Hero posts big blind (€0.04)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to Hero: [9d, Ts, As, Ac]
Villain1 calls €0.04
Villain2 raises €0.14 to €0.14
Villain3 calls €0.14
Villain4 folds
Villain5 calls €0.12
Hero calls €0.10
Villain1 calls €0.10
--- Dealing flop [Qd, Js, 7s]
Villain5 checks
Hero checks
Villain1 checks
Villain2 bets €0.52
Villain3 folds
Villain5 folds
Hero calls €0.52
Villain1 calls €0.52
--- Dealing turn [Kd]
Hero checks
Villain1 checks
Villain2 bets €1.14
Hero raises €5.68 to €5.68
Villain1 folds
Villain2 calls €4.54
--- Dealing river [Qs]
Hero checks
Villain2 checks
---
Summary:
Main pot: €13.62 won by Villain2 (€12.94)
Rake taken: €0.68
Seat 2: Villain1 (€8.14), net: -€0.66
Seat 4: Villain2 (€25.42), net: +€6.60, [Qh, Qc, Ks, 6s] (FOUR_OF_A_KIND QUEEN)
Seat 7: Villain3 (€6.36), net: -€0.14
Seat 8: Villain4 (€12.39)
Seat 9: Villain5 (€3.98), net: -€0.14
Seat 10: Hero (€6.38), net: -€6.34, [9d, Ts, As, Ac] (FLUSH ACE)
***** End of hand XXXXXXXXXXXXX *****


On turn, I raised the pot with 78% equity that should reflect as +EV, but my HUD shows -6eur. I suppose it takes only the end results into account in its calculations, which are not adjusted by the user actions.

With this in mind, the All-in EV probably requires much larger sample size than 10k hands to give statistically reliable results.

you are posting in the omaha/8b forum....that is the split pot (hi/low) variant of omaha. if you play the Hi only version(i get that impression from what i bolded) the 'small stakes PLO' forum is the better forum for you to post in.



the hand history does not show an all in. (specifically a bet or raise on a street prior to the river that places the smaller stack's entire chipstack into the pot).
its not clear which tracking program you use, but "all in EV" (winnings adjusted for all in equity) typically is adjusting your winnings to reflect the equity on the street that the all in bet or raise was placed. without an all in bet or raise the hand is basically ignored by "all in EV". that is, for this hand there is no adjustment made to winnings to reflect equity.
so if the program is graphing winnings and also graphing 'all in EV' the program (should) use -6.43 for both graphs. -6.43 is what you lost in the hand.
if your stack or villian 2's stack at the beginning of the hand was (€6.34) so that the turn raise was an 'all in' then the program (should) use -6.34 for winnings but +4.28 for 'all in EV'. reflecting a 10.62€ difference between your expectation and your actual result because of the very unfavorable river card.

nits
allin ev doesnt buy designer sneakers