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NL10 top 2 + FD NL10 top 2 + FD

04-09-2016 , 06:09 PM
are we ever not shoving this flop?

888 Poker - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 18 BB (VPIP: 41.89, PFR: 5.74, 3Bet Preflop: 5.80, Hands: 299)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 19.5 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 164.8 BB (VPIP: 81.82, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
BTN: 117.5 BB (VPIP: 39.50, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 9.76, Hands: 120)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T 9 5 A

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, CO calls 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Flop: (14.5 BB, 4 players) T 8 A
Hero checks, UTG bets 14.5 BB, fold, BTN raises to 36.2 BB, Hero ?? ,
NL10 top 2 + FD Quote
04-09-2016 , 09:41 PM
Against sets we have 40%
AA!AAA,TT!TTT,88!888

Adding in some bigger draws, we have 42%
AA!AAA,TT!TTT,88!888,J9:dd,KdQdJ,KQJ9

If we add in flush draw, we're up to 53%
AA!AAA,TT!TTT,88!888,J9:dd,KdQdJ,KQJ9,40%:dd

If we take out the flush draw and add in top two plus top & bottom pair, we have 59%
AA!AAA,TT!TTT,88!888,J9:dd,KdQdJ,KQJ9,AT,A8

If we add the flush draw to the above, we have 59.5%
AA!AAA,TT!TTT,88!888,J9:dd,KdQdJ,KQJ9,AT,A8,40%:dd

So, if I've made reasonable assumptions and got my syntax correct (which I've included in case of error), we're somewhere 60/40 ahead to 60/40 behind, depending on BTNs actual range. So looks fine to me to stick it in without some reason to believe he's a particularly nitty one. I also think that the situation of UTG being short makes it more likely that BTN would raise with a wider range than against a normal stack (i.e. including some hands he might otherwise just call with), to try and shut us out.

I'm ignoring UTG for simplicity because he's short and could have all kinds of junk given the SPR, so we're likely well ahead of his range.
NL10 top 2 + FD Quote
04-10-2016 , 03:50 AM
Given the fact that UTG is short, BTN raise on the flop can be pretty weak, so I just jam here every time.
NL10 top 2 + FD Quote
04-10-2016 , 12:24 PM
Tx.

Shortstack showed AA, BTN TT, so was doing pretty good for the main pot but think a bit overenthousiastic for the side pot.
NL10 top 2 + FD Quote

      
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