I really am not sure what to do in these spots. If i have the flush draw id go with it but without it I am not sure vs this particular player. his flop raise is 7 around 600 hands. Hes a reg that has ag factor of 1.4. He has a raise from co of 45 so hes pretty wide.
I figure I am either up against a set or a wrap with a flush draw and I just don't think my hand does very well. Just curious if this is a standard fold or shove spot. I really don't know. I just knew he was a nit post flop. I folded but #itfeelsbadman
I would plan for both streets - to call off on the turn unless a diamond hits, as you only have 15 bucks left and the pot will be 40ish if he bets turn. Not a nity fold on the flop.
Either get it in or check it back. Putting money in on the flop, then folding away this much equity in a 3b pot is a disaster.
What is your reasoning here? His equity seems significantly diminished by the villain's check-raising range unless the villain is playing perfectly against AAxx/KKxx.
What is your reasoning here? His equity seems significantly diminished by the villain's check-raising range unless the villain is playing perfectly against AAxx/KKxx.
He has 7 nut outs, the 3 deuces are great cards for him and KK is sometimes the best hand.
I agree if you're going to fold to this raise with a hand that undoubtedly has a good amount of equity then you should check back. Also bet/folding with this hand is going to leave you being super exploitable, villain will be able to x/r with a very high frequency and print money from all the equity he can push you off of.
Yeah, I did the math and it does seem that a call/jam is justified. I'm having a difficult time seeing why we should jam and not call. We are rarely getting any fold equity here whatsoever. We're also not getting a great value on our jam since we're behind most of the time.
I agree if you're going to fold to this raise with a hand that undoubtedly has a good amount of equity then you should check back. Also bet/folding with this hand is going to leave you being super exploitable, villain will be able to x/r with a very high frequency and print money from all the equity he can push you off of.
ya hes not that kind of player though to try to exploit players, but I could be wrong. He had 1.4 ag factor and flop raise of 7%. I think it was the only 3b pot he raised me on the flop but I am not sure if thats fact. We played for around 3 hrs this session on like 4 to 6 tables. I just didn't seem him making to many moves. I did catch him bluffing once though when I showed him weakness and made my range look capped. So he can make moves but I think its more on weakness. But it still doesn't feel right folding this. Maybe checking back not so bad in spots like this with no flush draw. That way we do protect our check back range with some over pairs with some straight draw equity. If we do turn a straight its disguised and he likes to bluff on weakness. It could of worked out a lot better then it did.
I appreciate all the help. Ya to much equity to fold I am realizing it now I am over folding to flop raises. They really came after me today raising me on the flop and turn. I was getting run over so I started to call some of these spots or going with it and I saw a few trash hands with blockers. Kind of tilts me I folded this hand now at the very least I should of called the flop raise.
b/f-ing is the clear choice if he's x/r-ing a very low frequency. If it's actually 7%, for example, it's a fist-pump b/f, and checking because you're worried about folding just that 7% is silly.
But the thing is a player can raise flop bets a low-ish frequency overall, but still find raises with lots of hands at this SPR and on a board like this. Even a solid raising range won't have too much trouble getting to 15%+ on this board. 2pr+ is already approaching 10%, and that's without even adding any draws yet. So yeah, I wouldn't rush to apply that flop raise stat in this spot.
Last edited by Rei Ayanami; 06-20-2017 at 04:53 PM.
I didn't look at 3b pots just his overall flop raise vs a single opponent cause it doesn't seem like its enough volume to get an idea of what someone is raising in 3b pots. Say he got 3b 10% of the time and he called the 3b around 8%. Your talking maybe 50 hands total of the 600 hands he played in and oop. So pretty much any time he does raise the stat will jump up. After he raised me it was 13% total for in and oop so before that it was probably under 10%. Since its only 600 total hands i looked at his overall stats to get an idea of how the villain is playing. That is a interesting question is how much volume do we need on a villain before we can go into more accurate stats for a real assessment of villain.