partypoker - $0.50 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 229.88 BB (VPIP: 34.40, PFR: 24.31, 3Bet Preflop: 6.76, Hands: 219)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG: 323.04 BB (VPIP: 37.01, PFR: 25.20, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 133)
MP: 74.18 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 22.62, 3Bet Preflop: 17.07, Hands: 84)
Hero (CO): 174.72 BB
BTN: 112.92 BB (VPIP: 24.48, PFR: 2.10, 3Bet Preflop: 1.54, Hands: 293)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q J J K

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) Q Q 3
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets 11.4 BB, Hero calls 11.4 BB, fold, fold

Turn: (34.8 BB, 2 players) 7
MP bets 33.06 BB

Hero?

Flop CB 76%
Turn CB 20%

...throws in all of his chips, plus his dog, toddler, and favorite pair of boxer briefs.

He's throwing in half of his stack on the turn but I can't imagine you doing anything but GII here with his stats. He's a walking sieve.

Thanks

Do we fold if a T falls on turn?

84 hands so your flop cb and turn cb are worhtless. anything else?
i dont think he is potting worse on the turn but you got trips!

AF 1.24

Even with only 84 hands I think a 70+ VPIP has to indicate something.

Yes VPIP is high, however his PFR is not.

Villain was preflop raiser, should we not take this into account?

We can only beat QT98?

SPR is 2, we have clean outs if behind, villain is loose, we can beat some of his value hands...

Just a clear 'don't fold' situation. Difference between shoving and calling is negligible.

I hurts my eyes that we are not 3-betting preflop. This is the most clearcut fistpump 3-bet I have seen in a while!

Don't fold

Ok thanks for replies.

I did elect to jam this turn and was behind to AQ99 but binked a K.

3b pre, 70/25/9 is very maniacy and he'll play bad postflop

He is a weak player, and you can take away a lot from his bet sizings. He also has low aggression and gives up a lot on the turn despite a small sample.

For all these reasons i don't think calling or shoving turn is +ev. He's betting into 3 people on the flop, so never bluffing, and when he pots turn again he indicates wanting to get the money in, so we can safely range him AQ+ and with a pair in your hand you have less outs to suck out... So id just fold.

Ya pretty easy 3b pre

70bb deep I'm OK with flatting - his PFR isn't high enough to make it a mandatory 3b. It sucks (a little) to have to 3b/face a 4b decision and 70bb deep that will happen more often than if we were 100+bb deep - particularly against a villain who seems capable of making wide 4b.

I don't quite agree it's a clear 'don't fold' situation.

Imo, V's turn c-bet is pretty significant and he's not holding a hand that will fold here if Hero decides to GII. So unless Hero is confident that he's ahead of most of V's range, there's really no reason to shove?

Can someone list out the value hands in V's range that we beat?

Yeah, we treat villain's bet as an effective shove but that doesn't mean we have to be ahead of his range, only around 42% or so.

Q9-QJ. Good players won't be potting flop and turn for value with those hand, but at 70 vpip villain isn't good. That type of player sees trips and goes berserk.

What would we do with QTT9ds on turn?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

392,560 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QQ37

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcJdJcKh	34.03%	112,112	42,940
70% & (Q***, 33**)	65.97%	237,508	42,940

Its actually a lot closer than I though it would be but I think villain still has enough random weirdness to move us up to ~42%. QJ and worse are probably folds.

*EDIT*
and against a tight preflop RFI its actually looking a lot more like a fold.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

101,480 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QQ37

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcJdJcKh	25.78%	19,632	13,056
20% & (Q***, 33**)	74.22%	68,792	13,056

His stats show his turn barrel isn't much weirdness, and your sim shows it's a fold..

The sims don't include bluffing, they're just a guideline as to what our minimum equity is.

The difference from 35 to 42% won't be made up unless you throw in a bunch of 4578, AK56, or random button clicking.
Our flop call will slow down even the craziest maniacs

Throwing in random button clicking to someone with vpip of 70 is pretty reasonable. The craziest maniacs you play against sound pretty tame.

70+ VPIP, with a relatively small sample size of 80ish hands, still probably has a statistical +- error range somewhere from 10-15. A statistics guru can probably more accurately assess that than me, though. So even at 15 or 20 error range his VPIP is easily over 50. The guy is a mess. Not sure why you'd show him so much respect. Sometimes the donk train comes through and you just ride it till he busts and realizes he's in the wrong place.

The fact that he actually had Q/A according to the OP isn't relevant since that's just playing the result. I think this is a fairly isolated case where you just have to play a maniac for what he is. Sometimes you get burned but in the long run it always works out.

Your maniacs like to quadruple barrel paired boards on a regular basis?

Perhaps the maniacs you speak of didn't survive in my parts and are extinct.

Id prob be mucking the turn a decent % of the time. 3 bet pre seems ifne.,

Im 3betting pre as well. Turn I sigh and fold