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Old 05-30-2012, 03:18 PM   #1
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~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Based on request I publish this post on it's own thread, I modified the original post a little bit. Original post is here.

There are a few things to consider....my analysis is not exhaustive but at least gives something to think about.

First of all I'd recommend reading GGARJ's great post about developing as a player. Cliffs are that you shouldn't play too many tables at once when you are climbing the plo ladder. You can see my post as a continuation to his post. The main goal is move up as soon as possible....as at midstakes the rake is not such a big issue anymore.

Some of my thoughts...

Volume

Volume (read: hours played) is an important consideration on deciding where to play.

With 200k VPP points on Stars you achieve ~41% rakeback and $14k. With my playing style that would mean play either ~420k (35k monthly) hands of PLO50 deep tables or ~298k (24,8k monthly) hands of PLO100 deep tables (I mostly have played these and not the normal tables).

For anything less than this, you are most likely better off playing on eurosites. It doesn't have to be this clear-cut though, but it's something for you to find out what works the best for you.

Rake and Rakeback

You have to be aware of how much rake you are paying when you play, they are far from equal across the sites. Based on my experience Stars has the lowest rake across the board, which partially makes up for lower RB%. Check the rake structure from each site and see if you notice clear differences. If you find a low rake site with good RB%, play a few thousand hands and see how it feels. Rinse and repeat if you don't like it. Eventually you'll find your match regarding rake, rakeback, software and other issues.

There are eurosites that offer handsome flat RB% up to 60% afaik, so I'll use that as a base for calculations.

Very important consideration is also the timing when the rakeback or bonuses are paid. Let's say that you make 200k VPP on Stars by December 28th, a large part of the bonus payments will occur during the last quarter of the year. On eurosites you receive your rakeback weekly, once a fortnight or monthly, or some combination thereof. This provides added security for your bankroll during the year.

Software

Not only is the esthetic qualities and practicality of the software important, but so is the quickness of it. For example on Entraction and Microgaming you get more hands per table per hour than on iPoker, or the normal tables on Stars (which include the deep tables). Stars also offers fast tables and Zoom poker, which is obviously ultra fast.

This correlates to how many tables you can effectively play on a certain network without it having a negative effect on your winrate. So you need to find your threshold how many tables you can play efficiently on a certain network and base your calculations on that. If you try to play too many tables, you might go from slightly winning player to slighty losing player very fast.

Other features, like auto-rebuy, preferred seating etc somewhat important for the end result as well, since the lack of these features will take your attention away from the important stuff and they affect the multitabling ease.

Traffic

Obviously you need to make sure that there are enough tables to play during the hours when you are free to grind. Download a few poker softwares and see for yourself.

You also need to research which sites has the softest games and use that in your decision making. I'm not gonna say which site is soft and which not, that's up to you to find out. On some sites the game is loose, on some sites the game is on average a bit nittier. You gotta find the games which suit you the best.

Calculation

Here you have a table with a basic analysis with 3 scenarios. It's my own calculation so you need to create your own based on your preferences. I wanted to compared PLO50 playing 100bb tables on eurosite vs PLO50 deep ante table on Stars.

Assumptions:
-enough volume to reach 200k VPP on Stars and receive ~41% rakeback equivalent
-grinding 100h per month

1) you play 4 tables on eurosites and Stars, both USD
2) playing 6 tables on Stars, that having an effect on winrate
3) eurosite tables in EUR



Based on this simplified analysis based on my assumptions and preferences, only on the 2nd scenario should I play on Stars, and even that is close. My goal is to maximise your hourly earnings, not bb/100 necessarily, so in scenario 2 I should sacrifice 2bb/100 in winrate to earn more by playing 2 more tables. Please keep in mind that all these calculations are theoretical and only created to encourage you to do your own calculations.

Therefore I recommend you to gather your own data, make assumptions based on past results and calculate based on them. These calculations are based on an average monthly winrate of 5bb/100 which may or may not be correct.

Conclusions

You gotta make them yourself based on your preferences.

I have talked to a couple of HS players regarding these matters and they all agree that rakeback is very important at lower levels, but so is developing yourself as a player, finding the softest games and putting in the volume. Most of them have spread their action on multiple networks when they were raising through the stakes.

For myself, I can put in enough volume even on Entraction where the games are sometimes scarce, since I only play 4 tables there. Still I sometimes play Stars ante games because I feel like it, even if it might not be financially the smartest decision for me. You gotta do what feels the best for you at the time you wanna grind!

And finally, no matter if your rakeback is 10%, 41% or 60%, if you are a losing player or if your bankroll is not big enough, you have a wonderful chance of losing all your money.

Clearly the most important thing is to find an environment where you can best train your skills, rakeback should be considered an added bonus and it should not be the main consideration.

EV++ bankroll simulator
is a very useful tool, play around with it and see how it looks for you.

So which steps should you follow?

1. Separate your poker roll from other money and decide which stakes you can comfortably play.

2. Estimate your monthly/annual volume.

3. Check which networks offer games that run well on your stakes and see if they have tables running during the hours you wanna play.

4. Get yourself rakeback deals to different networks you want to play in. You don't have to choose just one network, you can play on multiple sites and play where the softest games are running.

5. Do some calculations based on your estimated volume, rake paid, rakeback, assumed winrate etc to see where it makes the most sense for you to play. We are in this to make money, so why not maximise the potential?

6. Remember to have fun

7. Profit!
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Old 05-30-2012, 07:41 PM   #2
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Great post. I agree that it's really important and valuable to evaluate your goals (short and long term) before deciding where to play and how much volume to put in. Are you a casual player looking to make some additional income on the side? Are you playing poker for the challenge and fun and the monetary aspect isn't as important? Are you grinding to get you through college before moving onto other things and having poker take a back seat? Is poker going to be your profession for the long haul?

You should work to put yourself in as best a position as possible to succeed with your goals. If poker is something you're looking to do long-term then I can't stress enough (echoing GGARJ & napsus) how important it is to improve your game and climb the ladder as quickly and sensibly as possible. Also, work your ****ing ass off. This doesn't mean spend every waking minute on poker and have no life - balance is very important. Just don't waste too much time on time-sinks as you're almost certain to regret it if you do. Work hard, play hard. Poker is a ridiculously golden opportunity that we're all blessed to have found - don't waste it.
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Old 05-30-2012, 07:51 PM   #3
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Where did you find 60% rb? The highest flat rb I´ve found is 40% (excluding tiny prop sites). Some VIP-schemes you might be able to get close to 60%, but then you have to play a lot, which makes stars catch up.
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Old 05-30-2012, 11:34 PM   #4
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Quote:
Originally Posted by Toll View Post
Where did you find 60% rb? The highest flat rb I´ve found is 40% (excluding tiny prop sites). Some VIP-schemes you might be able to get close to 60%, but then you have to play a lot, which makes stars catch up.
You gotto ask around for those deals, they are nearly always "under-the-table" deals, which you can get directly from affiliates.

Great post Napsus, I think there was a ton of demand for something like this
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Old 05-31-2012, 08:13 AM   #5
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Good post. Thank you
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:00 AM   #6
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Great post. Thanks for this. I got 60% on ipoker but play half and half with stars because I cant get 6 ssplo tables running for my morning sessions so I play stars.
My advice for anyone who wants to rise playing plo would be play stars and get sn because the lack of plo tables above plo100 on the euros are a problem.

Last edited by WatsDStoryBud; 05-31-2012 at 09:09 AM.
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Old 05-31-2012, 11:33 AM   #7
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Cool article. I'm hoping to do something at the end of the month as a follow up to my last article.
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Old 06-01-2012, 05:33 AM   #8
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

great read. thanks for doing this. I liked the idea of estimating your monthly volume by hours. I always failed to reach my goals when they were "play xxxxx of hands" . I am very positive i can do my monthly volume goals by setting amount of x hours. Maybe its stupid but it works for me
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Old 06-01-2012, 05:44 AM   #9
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

it's not an exact science, so just do whatever works for you. in my opionion for small stakes players it's better to set goals per hours played because then you don't have to sweat about the # of number but rather focus on the quality of play. for someone like Roy it might be different since he's going for SNE again and must grind certain amount of hands to reach it.

for more about Roy's SNE chase methods, read here. Roy discusses similar issues as GGARJ and i touched with these short articles. definitely a good read even if you are not planning to make SNE.
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Old 06-02-2012, 12:34 PM   #10
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

hi guys

I am quitting Stars and am going to find a new site.

I am a guy with his own business and is looking for ways to supplement his income. Money is not a problem @ the moment but it will be in 2 to 3 years time. I am hoping to build a bankroll for 200 PLO and see what I can grind out

I used Stars Reload bonus code on 3th May, which gives me ~37.5% rakeback (200VPP/$1 dollar, $10 increment) plus my silverstar status rakeback.

(Below Stats are between 3 May to 2 June)

My bankroll was $250 at the beginning, I grinded some $2 PLO, $10 PLO and $25 PLO.

Here is my break-down:
$2 PLO: 4,178 Hands, Net Won -21.19, EV -22.56, Rake 7.34
$10 PLO: 17,325 Hands, Net Won -62.84, EV -40.37, Rake 143.72
$25 PLO: 3,012 Hands, Net Won -43.05, EV -60.4, Rake 57.78
+some other hands not in Zoom
+some random NLHE hands

Overall: Net Won -143.93, EV -146.97, Rake 246.92, 27,720 Hands over 82.1 hours

Stars ended up giving me $105 for rakeback, I think about $10 is attributable to my grinding in the previous month.

Obviously rake was a huge issue. I am now down $50, and would have lost a lot more if the reload bonus didn't apply.

Looking at my $10 PLO stat, I think without the rake I would be earning 143.72-62.84 = $80.88, or $4.66 big blind/100 hands. I understand that my rake is not the "true" amount I have lost because of the contribution method, but let's ignore it for now.

With rakeback, I am losing 62.84 - 143.72 * (37.5% + ~12% for silverstar) = -$8.3, almost negligible over the 17K hand. I would say I am breaking even with~50% rakeback.

Now that the code has expired, I must find a new site to play.

I am currently eyeing on Lock and Carbon Poker.

Carbon:
Pros: software looks reliable, fast cash out, good customer support
Cons: built-in HUD may educate fish, a lot fewer players, competition appears to be ~same level as star
rakeback: they have re-instated the 35% rakeback system for those who won't do VIP. 1st time depositer also get 75VIP point/$1, or $1 returned for every $7.5. I estimate the overall rakeback to be 48.33%

Lock:
Pros: massive welcome bonus of 200% up to 4,000
Cons: before buying cake, Lock is said to have problem with slow cash out etc. the software i downloaded on 2 June hanged for 3 seconds when i was observing a PLO table
rakeback: 36% rakeback + 1st time deposit bonus at a rate of $84 rake/$1 dollar returned. Total rakeback should be 37.19%

So, Carbon looks awfully sexy now with 48% rakeback and I am tempted to jump to there.

My only concern is 1) traffic 2) my ability to multi-table

If I am to 4-table on Carbon, I probably will have to play both the $4 table and the 50 table, together with the 2 $10 tables. I suppose there will be enough players, but I will be bumping head with many of the "regulars". not sure if this is a good thing

I suck at multi-tabling, even with NLHE, although I can 2-table PLO Zoom, I am not sure if I can handle 4-table non-zoom.

This is my 2nd month of PLO, I am quite happy to be winning 5BB/100 without rake. I suppose I will be better when I play more, and playing on non-zoom.

Sorry for the long post, my question really is just 1) is moving to Carbon a good choice? 2) any other good sites for micro stakes PLO?

Thanks!
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Old 06-02-2012, 01:10 PM   #11
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

If you can play on euro sites moving to any skin on merge like carbon is a terrible choice.
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Old 06-02-2012, 01:28 PM   #12
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

I know I cannot play on Titan/Everest/Party

I have an account on UB but I doubt i will qualify for 1st deposit bonus.

Please advise on other euro sites

Thanks.
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Old 06-02-2012, 01:50 PM   #13
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

Can you play on other ipoker skins? If you can, get a rakeback deal there. Or sign up to http://www.pokersavvy.com/ and bonus whore (that's what I'm doing now, on ipoker skins).
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Old 06-03-2012, 12:55 AM   #14
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

surprisingly i can!

I just asked PaddyPowerPoker (ipoker network) and they would take me (William Hill would not though)

I am at pokersavvy now but when I click rakeback it only shows RedStarPoker and some other unheard of rooms.

How do I learn more about the rakeback deal?

Thanks.
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Old 06-03-2012, 03:57 AM   #15
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Re: ~ June Digest - Where should I play? ~

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/51...t-form-980216/

Go to here and send a form. You'll need to get PMs enabled but Bobo Fett can do that for you if you ask him in the right place.
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