inside wrap miscalculation? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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inside wrap miscalculation?

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01-30-2017 , 10:16 PM

Bentley

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 600

Villain is 69/34 after 33 hands.
I think I pick up an inside wrap on the flop but is this enough outs to get it all in?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37602116

Hero (MP): $150.93 (150.9 bb)
CO: $40 (40 bb)
BTN: $121.17 (121.2 bb)
SB: $94.02 (94 bb)
BB: $131.88 (131.9 bb)
UTG: $314.42 (314.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9

CO posts BB OOP, UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $2, BTN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12) 7

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7.60, CO folds, SB raises to $34.20

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01-30-2017 , 10:27 PM

Darkfangs

grinder

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 540

I took two minutes to come up with some generic ranges, do we have the equity to call it off?

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcTd9d8d	44.03%	261,509	5,292
44, 77, jj, j7, 56, jt98, AKJT	55.97%	333,199	5,292

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01-30-2017 , 10:34 PM

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,055

44% is too high but we have enough to see a turn, jam would be spew

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01-30-2017 , 10:41 PM

Bentley

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 600

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

44% is too high but we have enough to see a turn, jam would be spew

any bet/call on the turn is going to be an all in so why not get it in on the flop with maybe some FE?
...or any wrap card or draw card I guess.

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01-30-2017 , 10:47 PM

Darkfangs

grinder

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 540

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bentley

any bet/call on the turn is going to be an all in so why not get it in on the flop with maybe some FE?
...or any wrap card or draw card I guess.

Because you can fold to the board pairing.The reason that equtiy was so high was because I included all 56 but I don't feel like taking the time to put the combos in.

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01-30-2017 , 10:50 PM

Darkfangs

grinder

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 540

you also don't have much fold equity, the guy put 30%+ of his stack in so he only needs 30% or so equity to call it off. He likely has that if he's potting you.

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01-31-2017 , 07:47 AM

Bentley

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 600

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkfangs

you also don't have much fold equity, the guy put 30%+ of his stack in so he only needs 30% or so equity to call it off. He likely has that if he's potting you.

Ok. So a Q came on the turn and I called his all in. Was about 30% at that point so close I guess.

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01-31-2017 , 07:48 AM

Bentley

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 600

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bentley

Ok. So a Q came on the turn and I called his all in. Was about 30% at that point so close I guess.

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If it had been non draw cards, I'm not sure whether to continue or not.

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01-31-2017 , 09:12 PM

Darkfangs

grinder

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 540

Was trying to get you to do some thinking but the real answer to this is fold pre. We should never have seen the flop. Then on the flop it is an easy check, there are 4 people to the flop, chances of getting raised is high. Once raised, I'd likely fold it, in reality we likely have 30-35% equity, half that for the turn if you don't hit on turn you likely have to fold. I probably fold to the raise here although it's close.

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01-31-2017 , 09:17 PM

#10

Bentley

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 600

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkfangs

Yeah I guess as the lone Ace is not much use here.
In general, I find I'm betting too much in spots like this...probably a holdem thing.

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02-01-2017 , 02:09 AM

#11

gay_on_tse

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 612

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darkfangs

Was trying to get you to do some thinking but the real answer to this is fold pre. We should never have seen the flop. Then on the flop it is an easy check, there are 4 people to the flop, chances of getting raised is high. Once raised, I'd likely fold it, in reality we likely have 30-35% equity, half that for the turn if you don't hit on turn you likely have to fold. I probably fold to the raise here although it's close.

lololololol

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02-01-2017 , 05:06 AM

#12

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,055

ran a more accurate sim hero should expect about 36.65% equity vs an agressive cr raise, vs a tighter opponent its going to be 34-35%,

on q blank queen hero equity falls below 32% so hero can play accordingly, with less than a psb left hero decisions will be straightforward

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02-01-2017 , 06:43 AM

#13

Bentley

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 600

Quote:

Originally Posted by monikrazy

If equity is v30% + and there are 4 players, we should bet no? If we get 4 calls it's +EV. It's not necessarily likely that we get raised. Passive play from everyone

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02-01-2017 , 07:22 AM

#14

gay_on_tse

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 612

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bentley

reread his post please

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02-01-2017 , 08:03 AM

#15

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,160

Yeah so about the preflop..

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02-01-2017 , 08:13 AM

#16

SeaKing

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 5,387

It's kind of pointless to run sims if you have no idea wtf you are doing lol.

This is a very easy fold btw.

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