Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players -
View hand 34171
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BTN: $232.35
SB: $154.80
BB: $99.00
UTG: $167.30
MP: $120.70
Hero (CO): $100.00
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T
5
J
A
2 folds,
Hero raises to $3.50,
2 folds, BB calls $2.50
Flop: ($7.50) 7
Q
9
(2 players)
BB bets $7.50,
Hero raises to $30, BB calls $22.50
Turn: ($67.50) 2
(2 players)
BB checks
Instinctively I thought that I should be checking this hand behind on the turn when villan checks to me. However, after the hand i ran it through propokertools and have done some quick calcs and am slightly suprised.
Pot is approx stack size on turn, and so if I have 0% equity when called I just need him to fold ~ 1/2 the time for this to be + EV. Given that I have 40% equity vs top set when called, then is shoving the turn is of course +ev, however, is it the most + ev play?
board: 7sQs9c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Ts5cJsAs 40.12% 329 0
QdQh5h5d 59.88%
If I shove turn and he calls turn 100% of the time I still earn (40% x $130) - (60% x -$65) = $13. Is this higher EV than if I check behind turn and see a free river, in which case he may not call when I hit / I may pay off a board pairing spade etc?
What is the most +ev play, shove turn or check behind?