Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 34171
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BTN: $232.35
SB: $154.80
BB: $99.00
UTG: $167.30
MP: $120.70
Hero (CO): $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T 5 J A
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 7 Q 9 (2 players)
BB bets $7.50, Hero raises to $30, BB calls $22.50

Turn: ($67.50) 2 (2 players)
BB checks

Instinctively I thought that I should be checking this hand behind on the turn when villan checks to me. However, after the hand i ran it through propokertools and have done some quick calcs and am slightly suprised.

Pot is approx stack size on turn, and so if I have 0% equity when called I just need him to fold ~ 1/2 the time for this to be + EV. Given that I have 40% equity vs top set when called, then is shoving the turn is of course +ev, however, is it the most + ev play?

board: 7sQs9c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Ts5cJsAs 40.12% 329 0
QdQh5h5d 59.88%

If I shove turn and he calls turn 100% of the time I still earn (40% x $130) - (60% x -$65) = $13. Is this higher EV than if I check behind turn and see a free river, in which case he may not call when I hit / I may pay off a board pairing spade etc?

What is the most +ev play, shove turn or check behind?

If youre reraising the flop lead, then I would continue with the aggressive line and fire again.

Why?

fold equity + dominated draws may call (ie value)

checking behind turns your hand pretty face up, and if the player is at all aggressive or good, he can bluff you off with missed draws and weak hands that you could have folded out on the turn or get in dominated.

On blank rivers I mean. Like gavz said, you should have a good amount of fold equity here, and I am pretty happy bet taking it down on turn, and fine with getting it in here.

This is a weird play from BB. I do not think he is folding at any point.

I'd take the free card and bluff some rivers and value bet appropriately.

I'll make up whatever FE we had on the turn( which I think is minimal) with Bluff equity here. And dominated draws which call will have a hard time getting away anyway on the river.

Also its going to be near impossible for villain to bluff us.

I was tired when I made the OP and made the mistake of calculating my equity on the flop vs top set instead of my turn equity.

board: 7sQs9c2h
Hand Pot equity
Ts5cJsAs 30.00%
QdQh5h5d 70.00%




If I shove turn and he calls turn 100% of the time I still earn (30% x $130) - (70% x -$65) = -$6.5. I don't think that I have much fold equity on the turn but assume that he actually folds 20% of the time. My EV then is (20% x $65) + (80% x -$6.5) = $6.5.

If I check behind turn, then assuming any bet I make is a pot size shove to simplify then what % of the time does he need to call (the 40% of the time I hit) for this to yield a greater EV than shoving turn ($6.50)?

C x 40% x $130 > $6.50
52C > $6.50
C> 12.5%

So he has to call just 12.5% of the time when I jam on rivers where I hit for checking behind the turn to be greater EV than shoving turn.

Shove.

I mean seriously, he led the flop, called a raise, and CHECKED the turn. Put him on a range, include fold equity, and it's a very very easy shove.

bet 22$

how did you go from 30% equity on the turn to 40%?

if you are to use your equity calculations, being 7:3 dog against top set, he's never folding, hence FE = 0 (not 20%).

aside from all the excessive monkey math, this is a logical shove.

why would we think he ever has a set here?
the most he has is two pair that he's calling with but it won't be so bad

he could have wrap and lower flush draw and was looking for board not to pair

he's calling this turn all the time imo, but checking behind is no fun