How do you change the size of your bet taking into account your current and future hand value?

Was playing some 2c/5c with a 5$ buy in. Got a hand in the CO and raised max.

MP: 5$
CO HERO: 5$
Btn: 4.5$
SB: 4$
BB: 6.5$

Hero hand: 6 7 59

Folded to the seat to the right of Hero who is in CO. MP calls for 5c, Hero raises to 22c, SB BB both call and MP folds.

Flop:

6103

Both SB and BB check to Hero. Hero continues for pot. Everybody folds.

I looked at the equities of what I would expect the other ranges to be and I'm so far ahead I could have bet smaller. My real concern was a big flush draw trying to draw out and I didn't want to let it happen for cheap. Thoughts?

what did you want to happen from this bet..?

I felt I was ahead so "let's put money in the pot". Doing some turn and river thinking I'll probably get there no matter what happens, so I could have been betting for value. The hands I want to call me are weaker than a pot size bet and I see that at least.

I don't really know a whole lot about bet sizing.

i would go ahead and bet 50-70% pot here if youre looking for callers

yeah I'd bet around 75% pot, betting slightly smaller might help if you are looking for a call, most likely though they just didn't have anything worth calling with as players at this stake will be calling no matter what size the bet is.

My experience at 5PLO confirms this.

The other point here is that, while you have a really big draw here, your notion that "You are going to get there no matter what" is inaccurate thinking. The longer you play PLO, the more you will see that these kinds of draws do brick out surprisingly often.

Also, betting large here, especially in position, can cause hands that actually have solid equity against you to fold, which is a very desirable result.

Consider - someone with a jack high flush draw and no other real value is actually a small favorite against you here:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

740,460 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6t3

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Js2s**	51.25%	378,356	2,248
9s5s6c7c	48.75%	359,856	2,248

Hell, a lone Ten with any three side cards has enough equity to call a pot sized bet here:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 6t3

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
T***	39.20%	232,743	4,965
9s5s6c7c	60.80%	362,292	4,965

Many people (less at 5PLO than higher, but still) will fold single pairs non-nut flush draws like these unless their hand has some other value to go along with it. The combination of your opponents often surprising amount of equity and the fact that you really won't always get there makes this very important: The Fold Equity you get is a big part of the value of these hands, especially in position. You ALWAYS should root to win the pot right away when you can in these scenarios.

yep, he's right

That's a J-high FD with two random side cards, some of which can be tremendously helpful; the impression that a bare J-high FD is a favorite is misleading.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

204,180 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6T3

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
9s5s6c7c	55.13%	112,559	0
Js2s!(T,6,3,JJ-AA,98,97,87,75,74,54,52,42)	44.87%	91,621	0

Likewise, a bare T is a lot worse than 40% when you exclude hands that strongly preclude its categorization as 'a bare T'.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

16,978,920 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 6T3

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
9s5s6c7c	69.56%	11,725,702	169,392
T!(TT,6,3,ss)	30.44%	5,083,826	169,392

To save any unnecessary typing, I'll point out that I'm not contradicting the other parts of your argument. (Although a hand with 40% equity being able to call a pot-sized bet in this spot is far from a given, due to the possibility of future betting, especially when it has shaky visibility.)

Rei, just to clarify, do we agree that OP should bet in this situation and should be happy to take down the pot when doing so?

You points about the nuances around my examples are correct, but I don't think they affect the point I was trying to make, which is that, even when our opponents have relatively crappy hands in a spot like this, we still want to take advantage of adding fold equity to our actual hand equity.

Just making sure we're on the same page on this one.

Yeah for sure.

I definitely like that idea. I've come up short on draws on the riv left with nothing but a position bluff and that's always awkward. I still need to learn when I want my opps to fold and when I want them to call. Recently I calculate equities on big hands for an edge when I can

Yeah, it's a real trick at 5PLO to figure out what to do when a big draw bricks on the river because you can get called down so light. I check behind more often than I bluff, because I've gotten ridiculous (but still correct) call downs too much when I don't.

If you pay enough attention though, you can eventually make logical reads like "If he had a set here, he almost certainly would have lead or check raised either the flop or the turn, and if he had made the straight, he would have lead into me on the river. It looks like he was calling down on a flush draw and missed, I need to bet enough to get him to fold some of his crappier hands that would fold to a bet but will still beat me at showdown because I missed too." You'll never get it to 100% accuracy, but keep trying and your success rate will rise.

Another point about that, though, is that you absolutely cannot get away with betting full pot when you have it, and less than pot when you miss. I see this all the time at these stakes and it is a dead give away. They pot the flop, pot the turn, then half pot the river. You call, and sure enough they missed their draw. Don't be one of them.