Flop call vs Probable set and does villian have my outs ? - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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Flop call vs Probable set and does villian have my outs ?

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06-23-2017 , 02:58 PM

tx_noodlelRiver

centurion

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 101

Thoughts ? Do these guys hold my outs too much of the time ?

PLYR1 44.25
PLYR2 76.6
PLYR3 66.03
HERO 50.85
VILLAIN1 49.56
VILLAIN2 110.5

Hand Events

PLYR4 Small Blind 0.25
VILLAIN2 Big Blind 0.5
HERO BUTTON - Was dealt 9

PLYR1 Raise 1.75
PLYR2 Fold
PLYR3 Fold
HERO Call 1.75
VILLAIN1 Call 1.5
VILLAIN2 Call 1.25
FLOP J

VILLAIN1 Bet 7
VILLAIN2 Raise 28
PLYR1 Fold
HERO Call 28
VILLAIN1 Raise 47.81
VILLAIN2 Call 19.81
HERO Call 19.81
TURN 8

VILLAIN2 Bet 60.94
HERO Call 1.29

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06-23-2017 , 03:19 PM

DoOrDoNot

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,763

Facing a bet and a reraise with a dominated wrap Im turbo folding

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06-23-2017 , 04:09 PM

tx_noodlelRiver

centurion

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 101

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot

Facing a bet and a reraise with a dominated wrap Im turbo folding

Are you expecting to be up against KQTx here ?

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06-23-2017 , 04:19 PM

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

One villain has to have exactly AQTx for this to be a fold. Don't fold.

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06-23-2017 , 06:03 PM

DoOrDoNot

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,763

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loctus

One villain has to have exactly AQTx for this to be a fold. Don't fold.

I mean obviously once we call the raise we have to call the all in, but facing the bet and then a raise with a lot of made hands that cover our straight outs and another guy left to act I think you should just fold. Youve only invested 1.75

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06-24-2017 , 04:02 AM

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot

Again, unless the "lot of made hands that cover our straight outs" mean that one of them has exactly AQT (which isn't a made hand btw), then it's a +EV gii. Unless you can show me some reasonable PPT sims where we don't have 33% 3ways? And if the original flop bettor was to fold for some reason we can play turns perfectly anyhow.

Our wrap is decievingly strong actually. It looks easily dominated but it isn't, and it's a bigger wrap than first meets the eye as well (the 7 means turn 8 gives us nuts, which Q9T on KJx normally wouldn't do that on 8 turn)

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06-24-2017 , 02:37 PM

DoOrDoNot

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,763

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loctus

I can easily come up with a few PPT simulations that show us <33%, but I don't see how that would help. Villains ranges are only loosely defined. Why would you put your whole stack in after only investing 1.75 with 33% equity anyway? Theoretically it's not a mistake I guess but with rake it probably is.

I don't think our equity is strong enough to call a 3 way all in here (which of course we don't know it's going to be until villain who donkbets calls as well). Of course all this changes if we are the ones shoving, but calling off a stack here feels wrong to me.

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06-24-2017 , 04:23 PM

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

I think we shouldn't fold because we're going to have more than required equity to make it profitable, obviously. In other words, more than 33% when it goes 3ways.

Still waiting for a ppt showing us not having that. What if they both have sets or two pairs and you just folded away half a stack of EV?

I'm not sure if you actually plugged the hand into PPT at all tbh. I think you'll be surprised at our equity against almost any combination of hands

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06-24-2017 , 06:48 PM

DoOrDoNot

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,763

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loctus

I did run a bunch of sims. Our equity looks pretty good sometimes and sometimes not good at all. That's why it's kinda silly cause we can both manipulate them to make us right. For example, I could say the same thing, what if we're up against two draws incl one that dominates us? What if we're against a set with our outs like JJT9 and then AQT (we have 16% in that special case)? Ranges are undefined but strong in this spot. Im just saying take the low variance play and fold having invested 1.75. Maybe it is a mistake, Im no expert, just sayin.

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06-26-2017 , 06:04 PM

#10

illiterat

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,481

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoOrDoNot

I did run a bunch of sims. Our equity looks pretty good sometimes and sometimes not good at all.

Ranges != random hands. As loctus said, this is about as bad as our equity gets when I got bored adding more hands (and I think more than this our equity rises again):

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTh9h6s	35.64%	174,583	80,258
(KK,JJ,77,KJ,K7,J7,AQT,KQT,QT9,T98):30%	31.03%	160,390	53,325
(KK,JJ,77,KJ,J7,AQT,KQT,QT9,(K,J,7)T98)):30%	33.32%	172,481	56,634

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06-26-2017 , 06:20 PM

#11

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

At the end of the day, do we really play PLO to fold 17 card wraps on rainbow flops?

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06-26-2017 , 06:20 PM

#12

DoOrDoNot

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,763

Quote:

Originally Posted by illiterat

Ranges != random hands. As loctus said, this is about as bad as our equity gets when I got bored adding more hands (and I think more than this our equity rises again):

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTh9h6s	35.64%	174,583	80,258
(KK,JJ,77,KJ,K7,J7,AQT,KQT,QT9,T98):30%	31.03%	160,390	53,325
(KK,JJ,77,KJ,J7,AQT,KQT,QT9,(K,J,7)T98)):30%	33.32%	172,481	56,634

I wasn't punching in random hands....

Hard for me to see how getting it in 3 ways with that thin of an edge is such an amazing play given rake taken will only be slightly lower than our profit. If you have total mental control then it's a marginally profitable decision I suppose. You were pretty liberal with your ranges as well incl. K7/J7

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At the end of the day, do we really play PLO to fold 17 card wraps on rainbow flops?

Probably not

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06-26-2017 , 06:27 PM

#13

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,159

By the way, aren't we gaining a bunch of EV from being able to fold pairing turns the times that villain1 just calls villain2's raise instead of jamming over? Like, a really significant amount of EV?

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06-26-2017 , 08:30 PM

#14

tx_noodlelRiver

centurion

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 101

Hope I did this right..

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QcTh9h6s	35.31%	175,702	73,834
(KK,JJ,77,KJ,K7,J7,AQK,AQT,KQT,QT9,T98):30%	31.57%	165,143	50,043
(KK,JJ,77,KJ,J7,AQT,AQJ,KQT,QT9,(K,J,7)T98)):30%	33.13%	173,155	52,725

I am assuming the lack of a flush draw increase the value of wrap? Know off hand by how much ? I am trying PPT now by following your examples , I am just not sure I am doing it correctly

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