The limper seems like a huge fish after 20 hands, playing 80-20 and made some terrible check calls. Only 100 hands with CO, so far seems competent.

Not the best flop in the world but not the worst either. I should be able to get it in here right? I don't see how I will be crushed all that often and should sometimes get folds.

Is pot/calling inexploitable?

I meant to say that I have been losing money overall in this spot for sure. Is that just variance or am I underestimating how often this works out poorly?

hmmmmmmm

I kind of feel ok doing this with the Td

It's 1bil % fine

You probably are remembering the times you get called in this spot and are just in bad equity.

Potting is ofc +ev but I prefer to go a smaller sizing. On a board like this, I would probably go 63-70% pot. This is going to achieve the same job as potting but it means we can potentially get away from our hand if both villains end up GII.

Potting also puts our hand face up as AA - would we pot with QJT9 or 2 pair/set? Well, we should do to be consistent but we are happy with these hands to entice worse hands in.

F_Ivanovic, do you prefer to go a smaller sizing in a HU pot too? Or just potting is the way to go?

We have 17% equity vs QQ + TT with our ace outs being to the nuts and our two backdoor flushdraws same story vs QQ + KT97. We have 25% vs Q8 and KT97.

If we bet 63% pot we need 17.5% equity to call it off so there is literally no combination of ranges I can find where calling it off after we bet is a clear mistake. Folding on the other hand can be a disaster on occasion. We can be clear favourites over a certain portion of a reasonable range.

So if I bet here I am not folding.

And yes, I pot every time I bet here with my range.

Yeah you're right - my post wasn't very clear. When I said potentially get away I didn't mean this hand but rather other hands like KK/AA with no backup.

Not sure why you are talking about KT97 tho in calculations?? Don't you mean JT9x?

Potting every time you bet here is OK as I said but I don't think it's best. We can end up on missing out on value when we have hands that crush our opponents hand and we lose any option of b/f.

Yeah, I wrote it out wrong

Vs 3 people it's tough to say.


I think betting 60% pot is way better than potting though. You get the same info for much cheaper.

I would probably bet/fold vs fish and bet/call vs a good player.

We can't bet/fold here.

just ****ing pot it instead of trying to be smart ass

Only thing to concider here is (IMO) is he ever bluffing.
If he is, bet 50-70% & GII to get more theoretical value.
If he isnt, bet pot & GII to maximise fold equity. (if he isnt dubm he will not bluff)

Also a thing we are not happy to get it in with 15% even if we get the odds. yes we do call, but we have lost an entire bunch of money before the GII ev.

let me just say that when we GII here we are often losers, maybe 50/50. but on average id say we have less than 50% here on this flop if we GII. lets just estimate 40/60 on average, and him catching this equity as wide as 40% of time (overestimation for ev calculations).

then we go on and calculate EV: and have +ev from 14bb->37bb just getting it in or trying, (60% of time him folding to cbet[40% catch, 60% not catch]) thats even big enough +ev to cover invested chips preflop.



NOTE! this is not an exact fact AND note that the calulation drastically changes when board changes to Q94 or QT4 or QJ4.

For some reason I find it impossible to try and semantically align myself to your post, because when you start with 'only thing to consider = is he ever bluffing'

Who the **** is 'he'? you are reffering to and when is hero bluffing? pre? post hero? Word 'bluff' is just always so confusing, it's like some kind of simple grunt utterance cavemen use to do to proclaim their love.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAdTd2h	50.52%	300,784	4,700
****	24.76%	145,009	7,153
****	24.72%	144,758	7,106

[/QUOTE]

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 8q4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAdTd2h	43.59%	259,609	3,851
****	28.20%	165,690	6,987
****	28.21%	165,750	7,069

=============================================

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 8q4

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAdTd2h	42.42%	253,681	1,653
****:35%!aa**	28.78%	169,343	6,659
****:55%!aa**	28.80%	169,595	6,466

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AhAdTd2h	49.32%	294,209	3,399
****:35%!aa**	25.40%	149,131	6,576
****:55%!aa**	25.28%	148,595	6,265

the flop is a small dent on our continuation, we lose some gradient but we consider the gappedness of the board the only thing to consider is their donk% and we just assume that they will take a mathematical line vs our range, the closer it (donk%) being to 0 then the worse we are with pot/calling. Because you basically can't analyse a donk% from default HH you just pot. But ingame you should be delusional to the extent it's probably that so you then stick to something which can grind them down. Ok they have set sometimes, sometimes they outdraw, so time they both get it in, blablaabla, most the time we have a v good pot with all those pair+gs which may call and also their ranges merging together. Hero knows he played right but posted the thread anyway because of being a noob (in confident in what is sound due to results).

you can be smart ass in certain dynamic, with a bet/fold betting 38.69% on flop, that dynamic is very very low donk% and high cr% with pair +. the two players gain position by not having donk% vs preflop raiser. YOu can't know it's like that, but you should not it is not so bad to just pot call having >40% vs two ranges. In some spots cr's are always sets and flips, the sets pretty heavy in relation to the flips - but 2 bdfd, 2 A's and bd straights **** IT POT

/thread

no wait, there is interesting question leading from this though, what kind of edges should we be weighting for (dat pun)? Is plo long and slow enough that you can just give away the small gradients? Answer is simply, no. It's a matter of your bankroll/volume/rake/leaks if it is an issue making not take any max pressure +ev thing even though this hand can easily ten times set you in a row. But I worry about some of these nits who play very tight but loose BRM and maybe they do make a bomb catching everyone out mutliway fighting for those small edges with their larger BR cushions

It's not being a smart ass to bet 2/3 instead of pot. Sure, with this hand there is no difference between potting and betting 2/3 but with some hands we want to b/f vs 2 ships or we want to get action from worse.

like what? AT97? JJ92ds? IN our 3b range?

I just gear between pot and c/f , the hands we want to bf vs 2 ships is not much different to 1 ship, the board is gappy but they are going to have 1 pair+ alot (its a race to improvement, we need runners ffor most of our hand strength increasing avenue). We don't want to get action from worse giving a discount when our hand is vulnerable and 100% of two 3bets is nice pick up....

This board type is pretty basic, no need to balance it too much. they will have easy time perceiving 33% , give them percieved implieds and less required equity = no.

Holy ****, I agree with MFN.