Hi guys

I played this hand against an aggressive player. He's certainly capable of making a big bluff.

I thought hard...
"Is it bluff, or not bluff???"

would love to hear your thoughts on this question, will reveal exactly what hand villain was holding once enough people give an answer!

I would put villain on a range of 2 pair+ on the flop and some big draws. My feeling goes way more to the 2 pair+ as the flop is 4 way.. I would fold river
As you say you will reveal the hand i put him on QT99ss to diamands

Was just going to post QT99...

given your dead cards, it's fairly likely he has you beat on the river.

i gave him a 40% donking range (pretty wide obv) that includes any 2 pair or better, and pair+OE, and FD+OE, and any wrap

if he barrels his whole range on the turn, then only the river he only has a non-FH or straight hand 13% of the time.



think u pre-flop, flop, and turn are all standard on your part. would find a fold now

Ur draw died on the turn, the river is an additional straight or two, u have the nut flush dr.

you might aswell say, 'given that you have no boat'.

What about flop raise? Too deep?

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I think making it 4-5$ on turn is an option, if he reshoves then you can see you only have 3outs, and it stops you getting value towned alot... say a deuce or 3 comes, then you can get some money out his mid/low boat, but meh. I raising turn small and checking behind alot.

If I don't raise small turn then I'm calling river, because I did not call turn to hit 3 outs. Generally he has KJ JJ or K9 here alot... 88 not so much .. KQT not so much but mayube he has some KQ** that is making some kind of sick value bet or just spew bet.

It's definitely a weird river spot, and hero calling is ok, especially as he bet pot, it just screams bluff when it is not a similar betting style to his flop and turn and your range is capped from flat calling flop. There are lots of bluffs in his range , QT J8 KQ QTJ9dd

PLO10 people rarely 3b barrel blast the river bluff, esp when they bet small on turn then river is big, its a fairly reliable tell

One of these days I need to play 15 hours of zoom10 and post some of the hands. There are plenty of bluffs. There are so many 1 tablers who have the ego to make plays and they will slide that bet slider across without much thought when bluffing because they are victim to that cognitive irrationality from inexperience, if they have a v strong hand they will actually think for some time and not pot so much... just because it is plo10 does not mean they are 65 year old solid nits who bet max for value on river and never bluff pot. YOu 'reliable tell' to me is reverse of what actualyl happens. Occasionally I will play an hour or two of micros, there are plenty of bluffs. I don't get where this '@ plo10 players are this and that' comes from. From my experience the lower stakes the LESS predictable the player pool is. At low stakes, they are 'sick' as in they have poor, ill , debilitating , thought processes, at high stakes the unpredictable returns, but its a different form of 'sickness'.

You need to reconsider your stereotypes.

OK guys, thanks for your input!

It seems most people are saying fold this river, which is what I actually did when playing the hand. Then villain shows me a bluff!

The main reason I folded was because he bet flop AND turn. I could not see what I could beat on river considering that he had something on flop and still liked what he had on the turn. I'm still not sure why he bet the turn with the hand he had, especially as there is a shorter stack behind me.

full hand below:

Well, I called his J8 as one of the bluffs , but it is certainly on the donkier side of bluff combos, no diamonds, no K, no QT,,,

the PSB makes it an easy(ish) call imo , it doesn't make sense except for desperation.

Generally when you are the aggressor on non straight board and the board pairs, you keep being the aggressor regardless of if you had a draw or a paired hand, but sometimes i will trap fish by not being agressor. The sizing thing is interesting read because if they are assuming a role, ther ei sno need to switch their betting style, he doesn't want to fold a str8 out , when i say your range is capped, I mean its unliekly you have KJ on river, he has J and 8 blockers to boats too. SO much I can say about this spot. Plenty of reasons to call

Just to add, keep in mind there is only 1 K in the deck and his flop range is much wider than K***, combine that with the role assumption and this range does not have to actually get narrower on the turn or river. When it gets to river JJ, 88 are feeling pot control and value milking alot more than a max bet and same is even more relevant for QT... him having KJ is reasonable but still I expect a smaller bet keeping sync with his <pot flop and turn sizings.


A general rule in poker, is to think what they want you to do, then do the opposite, his bet sizing is not saying he wants a call, especially off your capped calling range. You can still get thoe whole stacks in with the top of your range though but this is rarely flatting flop,,, maybe you have KJ22 though and wanted a safe turn before jamming and then you boat up and decide to trap though.
The 13% stat mentioned above is far too low, PPT and PJ weightings are always skewed, in that they have a lack of skewage, you can be wrong 66% of the time and it's fine...

Yeah well done Mt.FishNoob for being the only person to say calling the river is ok!

I guess being right in these sorts of spots is the difference between surviving the stakes (which is what i'm doing) and crushing the stakes.

I suppose it comes down to what hand could I possibly have that could call this bet? The full pot sizing really folds everything out except full houses, and It's not likely from his perspective that I have a full house, so from that point of view his bet only makes sense if he doesn't want me to call.

Maybe next time he does this with the nuts tho and wins huge pot! :P

Why? It's the best bluff hand he can have. Well played by Villain.

This is a reaction to the fact that he showed this hand. I'd highly suspect at this stake level (I don't play it) villain taking this line and barreling into multiple players with this specific hand combination and such little equity OTF will often result in villain having a really bad time.

As I said, this hand is the best possible bluff hand that one can have because it blocks all boats. If one were to bluff, this is the hand to start with, and since you theoretically need bluffs to weight your valuebets, Villain actually plays very well here.

And what do you mean by "such little equity OTF"? Villain has bottom two + OESD. I like lead/folding here.

mainly as villain doesn't have NFD combos - a huge portion of his potential bluffing range on the river

Weird to be thinking of an impossible hypothetical, you seem to not have thought of reverse side though which re balances that - it makes his bluffs (with NFD - (impossible)) less likely because that would also block our calling range. So when he has Ad he thinks more that hero has made hand on flop or straight draw, so it's pretty even and not huge at all. We know he doesn't have that on flop. He can bluff any hand , any diamonds, I think it only makes it more likely for him to have a straight with Ad in our hand, but then he is potting river so... that would be terrible.

Going to be short. Yes from a theoretical perspective he needs bluffs and he received a God runout in this spot so he could bluff. Do I think him donking 4 way with this combination will show a profit at this stake level? No.

He has bottom two but his OESD is non-nut and looking at the texture I think we can all imagine exactly what he actually ends up doing on a vast majority of turns/rivers .

Is that a omaha ranger analysis?
Seems pretty good !

ya, given our dead cards he just has it way more often

yes

Your zoom sure isn't like my zoom, ever time I call a large river bet they always have the made hand.

Well ok, if we have to be semantically correct not "every time" but certainly most of it. Sure they bluff but no where near plenty.

Of course hand histories would be interesting, I'd love to pull out mine if it was possible to sort it all out using fpdb.

Preflop just seems so freaking bad to me I'm shocked nobody is commenting on it.

Preflop is fine

Folding pre would be even worse than normal, what with two players having posted a BB and having weaker-than-A4C ranges.