villain 39/22
3b 1/14
18 hands



Flop play should be std. I'm more interested in whether or not this is a good 3b vs someone who appears loose so far and especially if we can call his 4b. Doesn't seem ideal having a pair and not great broadways but I still wasn't sure if I should be folding this IP. If yes, do we defend it dbl suited or QJJT?

I like the 3bet.

If I had to decide in play I would prob call the 4bet.

I played a bit with the numbers in PPT and it seems we're right on the edge if we assume the 4betting range is extremely tight. We need 33,3% equity to make the call profitable and we're getting somewhere around 33% if we put our villain on an AA:1%. In reality he's probably 4betting every AA combo which gives us equity a bit over 35% so I think it's a call no matter how tight of a range we assume.

Take rake into consideration at $25 and you'd be very wrong. It's something that should be taken into effect when playing these rake trap stakes.

The 3-bet being fine depends on the players in the blinds. It can't be bad though.

You're right, I didn't take the rake in consideration. I still think defending is prob ok due to implied odds as people hate to fold AA. Agree?

why are you guessing when you can get pokerjuice for 1$ and figure out in about 30 seconds that this is a -EV call.....
(QJJTss is also a fold)

What's the difference between doing in manually and using pokerjuice? The end result depends on the range we put our opponent on. I calculated our equity for AA:1% and AA. It took me 45 seconds to do this so yes the pokerjuice calculation is faster. What did you put our villain on that makes this -EV? Or does the rake make all the difference?

I also agree that this is a fold. When I look at PPT or OO, I check out the hvr graph, not the exact equity because it's going to be very rare that we're going to be seeing the river with this hand because it doesn't smash flops especially when villain has AA and even worse when he has AAKQ, AAKK, AAQJ, etc..

Then the interesting question is how deep we need to be to call

I think the more interesting question is where you can get poker juice for 1$

your first month is $1 when you buy it for the first time. After that it's regular price for whatever plan you want.

I don't like the 3bet at these stack sizes, medium pairs of average strength don't play that well and the blinds haven't acted yet, having a gap above the pair, even having ksjs instead of jsts, this is an ugly hand in many important ways

Contrast that to hands like tt87, qqjt, jj99, kk54..
The playability is much higher

This is a spot where hero can be very selective about what hands to raise.. having too many of these mediocre holdings will make it much easier for villains to play you

You should compare -EV of the hand when you fold vs -EV of calling and stacking on some flops. The latter may be less -EV, but leads to more variance. So in my book the decision here may simply vary depending on your bankroll.

I used $4b2 and $4b4 PJ. If we fold, we lose 11.6bb, so make -1160bb/100 winrate in this spot. And EV of peel and stack off is -3.4bb, -340bb/100. If he 4bets AA, it's even a less -EV call.

the ev of folding is always zero

Read what I wrote. Not EV of folding, but EV of a hand. Or keep it simple: what will be your win rate if you fold and if you call for the hand.

you should stream more

Bit of a bump but I was searching for something else and stumbled across this thread. I never post but figured I might as well...

vs AA only


vs AA,$4b3

(note will be some variance in these numbers since OO doesn't run an exhaustive sim, but close enough)

So it's a fold, esp. considering rake, plus if people think all the crappy KKs are almost the nuts too, then that's very bad for your hand. No clue how PLO25 plays though.

Not a huge fan of the PJ $4b macros but it's fine for these purposes... Not a big fan of the 3bet either unless CO is very wide. Hand plays fine MW and does not like getting 4b.

The -3.4bb is on top of what we've already 'lost' with our 3bet.

I prefer calculating things in terms of expected stack for this reason, makes it easier to see the EV of folding.

in before mushroom repeat "We need 33,3% equity to make the call profitable and..."

This is just plain wrong. The profitability on the call depends on how often you can call and see a flop good enough to stack off. Paired hands have a lot of there equity trapped in the times they make a set, and you're not always gonna hit it on the flop because of card distribution (two more cards to come.)

I don't like the 3bet. Is it for value or as a bluff? This isn't Holdem where we will get a lot of preflop folds. Equities run so close that we just run a rake trap at these stakes

Agreed, I would rather 3bet aces and then some tripped hands like JJJ2 to polarize our preflop 3betting range. This 3bet is a bit too merged for my taste.