Call or raise? 3rd nuts on river - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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Call or raise? 3rd nuts on river

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10-13-2013 , 03:49 PM

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

Main villain is fish who regs the PLO game, raises/bets/calls a lot and generally puts money in the pot light. Live 2/5 PLO. Hero probably perceived as somewhat tight grinder.

I raise in MP over 1 limper with J

to $25, 3 callers.

Flop K

, pot $105
I check, other guy checks, shortstack guy jams all in for $100, lady behind snapcalls extremely fast, I call. Me and lady are about $2000 deep.

Turn 6

, pot $405
I check, villain checks behind.

River 8

, pot $405
I lead $125 into dry side pot, she raises to $475...

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10-13-2013 , 09:40 PM

Achilles1

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 150

any reads on the lady?
its close, it's $350 to win $1,005 so you need to be right about 30% to call.
Is she more likely to flat the flop with a set or 2pair?
How likely is she to raise a non-nut boat here? (56xx,55xx,k6xx)

If I don't know the answers to these types of questions I tend to lean towards calling, since I will then get a chance to get some answers. You mention she likes to put money in the pot light so that would help the case for raising as well.

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10-13-2013 , 11:44 PM

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

What SN is this?

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 29,325

snap call on flop doesnt sound like 2 pair to me, more likely a set she is lolslowplaying or a draw

i doubt live players are bluffraising rivers with busted draws or 79 in dry pots

so think river is close-ish between call and fold.

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10-14-2013 , 12:07 AM

Brown Keeper

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 4,542

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

to $25, 3 callers.

Flop K

, pot $105
I check, other guy checks, shortstack guy jams all in for $100, lady behind snapcalls extremely fast, I call. Me and lady are about $2000 deep.

Turn 6

, pot $405
I check, villain checks behind.

River 8

, pot $405
I lead $125 into dry side pot, she raises to $475...

You're perceived as tight?
From everything I've read in your thread I would think quite the opposite. Fl games must be quite good with lots of high vpips.

Just calling the end is good.

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10-14-2013 , 12:38 AM

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

What SN is this?

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 29,325

Wait what? are you talking about the flop call or the preflop raise? op didnt have the chance to fold turn

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10-14-2013 , 01:02 AM

freddy10-4

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 628

Er, don't fold river obviously, like Aesah says, it's a decision between making it like $900 or just flatting, unless she's a complete donkey she's raising the flop with her sets so this is most likely 56, 86, K6. Is flop call completely necessary/standard?

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10-14-2013 , 01:10 AM

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

Quote:

Originally Posted by Achilles1

its close, it's $350 to win $1,005 so you need to be right about 30% to call.

I think folding is out of the question. i need to be over 50% against her river calling range vs. my 3-bet.

haven't played that much with villain or i probably wouldn't have posted the hand. i guess vs. a relatively unknown fish (clearly has a lot of money and is willing to get it in light), but also someone who regs PLO so she has some idea of what she's doing.

flop call is marginal but I think it is slightly +EV.

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10-14-2013 , 01:50 AM

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

What SN is this?

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 29,325

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddy10-4

Er, don't fold river obviously, like Aesah says, it's a decision between making it like $900 or just flatting, unless she's a complete donkey she's raising the flop with her sets so this is most likely 56, 86, K6. Is flop call completely necessary/standard?

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Live 2/5 PLO.

there is about a 95% chance she is a complete donkey ime

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10-14-2013 , 06:29 AM

hackprotech

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 763

i would call the raise

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10-14-2013 , 07:39 AM

#10

F_Ivanovic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,658

Re-raising river is absurd. A lot of fish like to check back turn with strong hands and try and get value OTR. I think 66 is the only hand we should be worried about but I'm never folding for that price.

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10-14-2013 , 08:25 AM

#11

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 14,755

Even if she rates to have worse and call you with it enough of the time on the river, if she's overvaluing non-nut hands and raising them, she might overvalue any boat enough to jam over the top of your raise with it and have you fold the best hand some of the time. Calling is definitely +ev, so do that.

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10-14-2013 , 10:08 AM

#12

Czech Rays

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,645

Shove or fold. She has 0 bluffs in this spot and she isn't folding any value hand she raises including 55. Call is terrible scared poker.

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10-14-2013 , 10:55 AM

#13

DrawNone

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 5,023

did she have quad 6s?

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10-14-2013 , 11:03 AM

#14

Capitano

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 408

Quote:

Originally Posted by Czech Rays

Shove or fold. She has 0 bluffs in this spot and she isn't folding any value hand she raises including 55. Call is terrible scared poker.

So calling is scared poker but folding isn't?

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10-14-2013 , 11:43 AM

#15

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S

What SN is this?

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 29,325

heh i think what he is saying has some general application to live games.

basically make a read, and act on it. we know that calling is never the best option against a hand in her range. if she has worse we should raise, if she has better we should fold.

we call to basically make a small mistake in one direction rather than risk making a big mistake.

i still probably call tho... probably

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10-14-2013 , 12:11 PM

#16

U5eless Bluff

adept

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 720

Live PLO is notoriously full of donks so I think we can assume a wide range.

I feel like flop snap call leads more towards big draws (small made hands+combos), I think good players raise for value made hands+BD's or to protect with naked made hands. Lady is BT if I am not mistaken so i would expect all her KK hands to raise preflop &/or flop with two players left to act.

Your river bet is quite small so could be perceived as weakish and she is raising with hands like 86, 55, 65, k6.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

14,457 trials (Exhaustive)

board: k

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
jcjs8c8d	77.89%	11,260	0
86, 55, 65, k6, 66, kk	22.11%	3,197	0

I think its a shove, but as Eskimo states to decrease our chances of making a big mistake a call is not that bad either

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10-14-2013 , 12:25 PM

#17

Czech Rays

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,645

Calling too much on the river is the biggest single mistake I see in PLO. In cases like this it is correct if she is raising hands that beat us between 30% and 50%. However no weak player has a raising range in that percentage.

Simply put, she either views 66/KK as the nuts, or she views any full house as the nuts. That is our decision and as Eskimo states calling is wrong against either range.

In this case, IMO, there are so many worse boats in her range given how the hand played out, and since Zeebo´s theorem applies most strongly in the live setting, I raise pot.

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10-15-2013 , 12:45 AM

#18

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

^ assuming that an experienced (albeit weak) PLO player has absolutely zero raise/folding range on the river seems wrong

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10-15-2013 , 12:46 AM

#19

Aesah

Verified Coach NLHE/PLO

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 6,708

I'm actually surprised and glad to hear that it's at least close. I called in game, she showed K6xx, and I felt I made a pretty big mistake by not raising.

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10-15-2013 , 04:14 AM

#20

F_Ivanovic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,658

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

^ assuming that an experienced (albeit weak) PLO player has absolutely zero raise/folding range on the river seems wrong

Yeah I agree w/ this. Sometimes you will find players that will call with anything they raise with (as they think all FH's are nuts) but w/o reads it's hard to know. I mean if you think the avg bad player will have no raise/folding range then the best play we can make a population read and shove here. But if you can't be certain then calling is going to be OK for now.

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10-15-2013 , 05:32 AM

#21

Achilles1

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 150

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aesah

I think based on our reads now, calling isn't going to be wrong. But it's also never as good as raising or folding.

I guess a good question that arises is what indicators give us the go ahead to make an exploitative raise vs an unknown opponent?

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