People saying to fold to river bet on broadway cards (KQT) are you also folding the bottom wrap cards (2457)? If not are you just assuming he bets a random A on the flop but is only betting river with a backdoored straight? I mean, yeh, people do randomly C-bet when a check would be better but they also randomly bet AJ on the river "for value" or randomly decide they "have to bluff" when they get to the river with a missed flush draw.
I'd be much happier betting a 8
when checked to on the river than I would if the flush hit (but that's only four good cards, lol), and
without reads I much prefer potting turn than trying to value bet river. People who want to bet the river, what is your sizing and what are you doing to a raise (it would be a crazy line for a bluff, but crazy exists at plo10 and we'll be getting massive odds unless we bet small ... and betting small just encourages crazyness).
At plo10 a significant number of players will only be opening like this with ok+ AA, esp. from this position, so that is significant and I assume the reason for this post. But it's kind of a cooler, and we aren't that bad on the flop even if he has it:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
5s5h3s3d | 35.40% | 761,498 | 1,072 |
AA | 64.60% | 1,389,930 | 1,072 |
...main reason I wouldn't raise flop is that he's likely to fold a lot of hands that will put more money in if we call.