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bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP

12-04-2016 , 06:37 PM
villain unknown

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $41.05 (410.5 bb)
    BB: $79.21 (792.1 bb)
    UTG: $10 (100 bb)
    MP: $27.78 (277.8 bb)
    CO: $22.18 (221.8 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $11.95 (119.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 3 5 3 5
    UTG raises to $0.35, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.85) 3 6 A (2 players)
    UTG bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

    Considered raising here but felt like I'm in pretty bad shape vs his stackoff range and only very slightly ahead - if that - vs his overall continuing range.

    Turn: ($2.05) J (2 players)
    UTG bets $1.60, Hero ?

    Same story here. I don't think I'm ahead if the money goes in here. However I don't have great implied odds and bad river playability. I.e. what do we do if the river brings a low spade and he checks? Can we still valuebet then? Or what if the river bricks off and he bets >2/3p? Is bottom set then still good vs unknown?
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-04-2016 , 07:13 PM
    Fold imo. Unless his stats show hes spewy.

    Even if the board pairs with a jack or an ace. Do you even feel good about that?

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-04-2016 , 08:06 PM
    raise pot on the turn as played three of a kind is a strong hand with a lot of winning potential.
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-04-2016 , 08:31 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jerocool2
    Fold imo. Unless his stats show hes spewy.

    Even if the board pairs with a jack or an ace. Do you even feel good about that?

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-04-2016 , 09:51 PM
    They don't call it idiot set for no reason!
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-05-2016 , 03:29 AM
    Yeah, don't fold. I would call the turn.

    If the river brings a low spade and he checks I might value bet. It's PLO10, people don't c/r rivers all that often.
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-05-2016 , 04:59 AM
    Please don't fold
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-05-2016 , 06:11 AM
    Bottom set is often a good hand to call down barrells with in position. It's strong enough to do so, but not really strong enough to start piling in stacks for value. Well, it might be strong enough to pile in stacks (depending on villain) but it's nice to have some super solid hands to call down with and not just top+bottom 2p or something
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-06-2016 , 12:56 PM
    Would definitely at least call turn, maybe shove vs a fun player
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-07-2016 , 10:22 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by z0mgtiltz
    Would definitely at least call turn, maybe shove vs a fun player
    This

    It's going to be tough if he continues betting river. I'd probably fold at hearts/broadways, and decide using betsizes/timing at the remaining cards.

    I'd probably make a small vbet on a spade river if he checks.
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-07-2016 , 09:28 PM
    I agree with you OP that raising flop makes no sense. Will win us a bunch of small pots and lose a few big ones, so seems like an 0EV spot at best.

    You could argue a raise and gii ott, but that's a decision which would be very player dependant. With no reads, I would most likely elect to play it close to the belt and flat. Folding is absurd.

    Otr, I am most likely valuing all bricks (2-9) when checked to, flatting just about everything else when bet in to, other than hearts and broadways.

    Spade rivers are interesting both when checked and bet in to; I'm not sure I would love being bet into on all three streets by an unknown holding a 5hi flush. When we are checked to, we should valuebet, but how often are we expecting to be called by worse, especially when our range is full of fd's given our flat/flat line.

    In the end, I probably flat/valuebet anyway and chalk it upto a cooler when I flat and lose and the avg villain at $10PLO is bad enough to call with a set when we valuebet and lose.
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-08-2016 , 01:39 AM
    People saying to fold to river bet on broadway cards (KQT) are you also folding the bottom wrap cards (2457)? If not are you just assuming he bets a random A on the flop but is only betting river with a backdoored straight? I mean, yeh, people do randomly C-bet when a check would be better but they also randomly bet AJ on the river "for value" or randomly decide they "have to bluff" when they get to the river with a missed flush draw.

    I'd be much happier betting a 8 when checked to on the river than I would if the flush hit (but that's only four good cards, lol), and without reads I much prefer potting turn than trying to value bet river. People who want to bet the river, what is your sizing and what are you doing to a raise (it would be a crazy line for a bluff, but crazy exists at plo10 and we'll be getting massive odds unless we bet small ... and betting small just encourages crazyness).

    At plo10 a significant number of players will only be opening like this with ok+ AA, esp. from this position, so that is significant and I assume the reason for this post. But it's kind of a cooler, and we aren't that bad on the flop even if he has it:

    ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
    2,152,500 trials (Exhaustive)
    board: A63
    Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
    5s5h3s3d35.40% 761,4981,072
    AA64.60% 1,389,9301,072

    ...main reason I wouldn't raise flop is that he's likely to fold a lot of hands that will put more money in if we call.
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-08-2016 , 04:07 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by horseofhell
    They don't call it idiot set for no reason!
    In all of my studying in plo, I've never heard it referred to as such...so I guess you're right . People say idiot straight fyi
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote
    12-13-2016 , 08:28 PM
    I hate to be "that guy", but this flop is about as good as it gets for 5533 and we're still worried about being crushed ... that says to me that we should have folded pre.
    bottom set + FD on A63 vs EP Quote

          
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