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Small Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 1/2 and below pot-limit Omaha poker

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Old 11-23-2011, 05:02 PM   #1
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Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

Villain was 95/36 3bet of 20% not that huge of a sample.
Seems little bit like suicide to bluff the river against such a wonderfull human being.

He has a weakish flush on the turn, sometimes 2pair to stuburn to fold.

Jam river since my line looks like a boat/nfd hand ?

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha
CO: $14.73 (294.6 bb)
BTN: $7.88 (157.6 bb)
SB: $7.50 (150 bb)
Hero (BB): $15.61 (312.2 bb)
MP: $12.96 (259.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 Q A K
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.17, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.53, BTN calls $0.36

Flop: ($1.08) T 2 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.92, BTN calls $0.92

Turn: ($2.92) K (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, BTN calls $1.80

River: ($6.52) K (2 players)
[color="red"]Hero ???
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Old 11-23-2011, 05:28 PM   #2
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

Check. Straight has enough showdown value vs. him.
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Old 11-24-2011, 02:38 AM   #3
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

A 95/36 isn't folding a flush here generally. They ain't called fish for no reason.
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Old 11-24-2011, 04:14 AM   #4
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

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Originally Posted by Maffff View Post
A 95/36 isn't folding a flush here generally. They ain't called fish for no reason.
right
but i dont think i have any showdown value once he called the turn and when the board doesnt pair i just c/f or c/c depending on betsize. Think he is raising turn with strong flushes, so i think he has a babyflush so so often. Paired board could even make this type of guy fold 6high flushes,

and in case he has a donkystraight he might level himself into calling river anyway once i jam.

thats my reasoning behind river jam, but i in general agree, trying to bluff this type of guy is pretty marginal/neutral itlr
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Old 11-24-2011, 08:50 AM   #5
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

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Originally Posted by bartolomeus View Post
and in case he has a donkystraight he might level himself into calling river anyway once i jam.
That's not a good reason to shove. That's a good reason to not shove. If you think you could get value from the "sucker straight" you're probably just gonna get snapped off by a real hand.
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Old 11-24-2011, 10:22 AM   #6
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

check turn, if checks through, small v-bet river. easy game .

As played, don't bluff, just let it go
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Old 11-24-2011, 10:53 AM   #7
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

Indeed, turn i was like "YES THANK YOU FK" shieet, bet/fold like 60%.
He called and i was like "OKAY SHYT HE HAS A FLUSHHH"

River like "MAN CAN HE REALLY CALL WITH 8 HIGH FLUSH?!?!, MAYBE!" "FK IT, LETS TRY, I PLYED IT LIKE A SET/NFD"

Okay you guy are right in general, i should give up river.
I jammed, he tanked, and typed "-lol fh lucker" and mucked. lucky me.
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Old 11-24-2011, 10:57 AM   #8
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bartolomeus View Post
Paired board could even make this type of guy fold 6high flushes,

and in case he has a donkystraight he might level himself into calling river anyway once i jam.
Wishful thinking. Generally "villain might call with even worse than my bluff hand" is not an argument in favour of bluffing.
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Old 11-24-2011, 11:00 AM   #9
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Re: Bluff river ? Flush - rep boat on the river.

Scientifically proven exact range for 95vpip villain to fold here:

35% chance he folded split
35% chance he folded Q9
20% chance he folded worse than Q9
10% chance he folded a flush
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Old 11-24-2011, 11:50 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chinz View Post
Scientifically proven exact range for 95vpip villain to fold here:

35% chance he folded split
35% chance he folded Q9
20% chance he folded worse than Q9
10% chance he folded a flush
this is 100% with a +/- 0.00 degree margin correct
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