Good morning,
Assuming we're facing AA, we have 33,36% equity on the flop. Also assuming that if we call flop we will gii any turn, then we would need 38,28% ($4,33/$11,31) equity to gii.
I made some calculations about the scenario in which I am the only caller, and would like to know if I'm on the right way.
Lets see:
Folding = -$0,62
GII = (33,36% x $11,31) - $4,33 = -$0,56
In this close spot, if we consider the rake, probably folding is not wrong. But if we had anything to go with our 2nd nut FD (a gutshot or a pair, e.g.), we could easily gii. Are my thoughts correct?

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 2748554
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $5.92
Hero (MP): $10.90
CO: $2.57
BTN: $3.64
SB: $4.95
BB: $4.73

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with A K 4 2
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.17, CO calls $0.17, BTN calls $0.17, SB raises to $0.62, BB calls $0.57, Hero calls $0.45, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.45

Flop: ($2.65) J 5 9 (4 players)
SB bets $2.55, BB folds

Hero

Your reference points are wrong.

It's either . . .

Folding = $0
GII = (33.36%)($11.31) - $4.33 = -$0.56

. . . OR . . .

Folding = -$0.62
GII = (33.36%)($11.31) - $4.95 = -$1.18

. . . depending on whether you want your EV relative to the flop or relative to preflop.

A quick sanity check is that getting stacks in when you need 38% should be unprofitable when you actually have 33%.

I think it's a little facile to assume you are against strictly AA here. Also it's possible that you get it in three way, which could be good or disastrous depending on if button has the nut flush draw. It's possible the SB might not even be raising bad or even okay aces out of position with these stack sizes. Depending on his style of play his range might include more double suited run downs, KKds or JJ99 type hands along with premium aces.

This blows. I prolly end up making a tight fold with a dude behind me. Ad yeah, if I had anything on the side, I would gii. As little as a bdfd

I never relate my ev to folding in my head (folding is always a negative value, including preflop UTG), I don't know why everyone confirms to the relative point being the fold. There is an 'origin'/'0', that is not folding.

I'm not elaborating without a white board and marker because I have to draw it

After doing the equity maths its a easy fold

ty Rei! Really silly (and expensive) mistake...

Folding (on the flop) is the reference for not losing more money. So we need a +EV simulation to continue in the hand. I think its OK to put it this way...

I see the hand this way:
I wouldn't max raise with your hand first to the pot. It's a tough hand to play against your average micro plo population (means I assume they are generally pretty weak in their hand construction preflop, over evaluate hand post flop). You speculate on dry A or K high boards to pick up an uncontested pot or drawing to the flush. When you bloat the pot on a speculative hand OOP you ask for trouble due to so many marginal spots and probably just getting paid off not often enough you get that monster but paying a lot to draw or making some 2nd best hands.

you called the 3b. Why? What's the read on your villans, do they play so crappy that you can justify a flat call with a button player behind that's gonna cold call 99% of the time aswell?

I don't think it's time well spent calculating some EV spots you shouldn't be in in the first place especially if you don't have a plan constructed for your hand in this scenario.

It's an easy open (for whatever you open to -- pot is perfect) and an easy call of the tiny 3-bet.

(A4)(K2) is a top-10% hand, not a "speculative hand"; it plays well multiway and heads-up; it's going to do well against your opponents' weak ranges.

"Bloat the pot OOP" is a sequence of words that seems to pop up with regularity in support of incorrect nittery.

This. Folding to the 3bet is bad even if it was a potsize 3bet. Seeing as it is a less than potsize 3bet, folding is just rly rly bad.

And yes AK42ds is super strong hand. What is up with all the super nits here in SSPLO? Anyone with a vpip higher than 20?

Fair enough. To my reasoning I should explain that on the PLO4 micros on Unibet I tended to get into really weird spots. Thats why I'd like to know what the read on villans is. I didn't mean to say the hand is super bad by itself, just whats your plan for it. It sounded to me like "call and hit monster or fold" and thats the entire play. If you want to nut paddle because the table plays crazy you have to nit pretty hard in some spots at the lowest micros or just ship it in and try to isolate.

Don't mislead people by saying 'super strong hand' - it's all relative - it's weakened by folds preflop and strengthened by single raises preflop (utg less so ofc), it is weakened heavily when the SB 3bs and the A/K is going to be weightened in 4 ranges (hence not on the flop) , and when the danglers hit there is top set to worry about + every redraw + no oppertune to 'trap'- in such spots your expectation is narrowed to flush draws/broadway. The 3card wheel is 'ok' but this is a 'super strong' omaha hi/lo hand and 'mediocre' plo hand.

I agree with fishnoob here. Also to OP you don't account for the very likely holding of AA+ nutflush draw because noone bet 95% of pot there with dry AA even with the nut flush blocker into 3 people. His range is most likely AA+NFD, J9xx, JJxx,99xx, 55xx. You're crushed vs this range.

I agree with this but at plo5 I found a lot of people overvaluing AA but I haven't played these stakes in along time. Your right how we're almost never ahead hear though

Come on, although we cant say its a super strong hand, I dont think we should fold for the 3-bet pf.
Just to ilustrate, shifting the suits to J 5 9 , I guess we could then profitably shove OTF...

yes but how often do you get paid off when you hit the nuts when you consider investing 12BB's pre flop? facing 3bets on the micros is either he's taking you to value town, fast playing AA or he's crazy. And flop play will often enough be WA/WB. We talk lowest micro stakes here. or can you shove with TPTK OTF due to stats/reads?

put else: what makes my call profitable with this hand in this spot?
what variables determine it to be a fold, call or 4b preflop with a button player behind me?

in my experience up to now I win on the lowest micros preflop with simply better hands or postflop barrelling the nits in position

am I completely crazy?

I'm just wondering about the fundamental approach to these stakes for a high winrate.

Mafs are hard.

Pre open fine, 3b call fine being aware btn will re pop occasionally.

Flops a sigh fold i guess with one behind, feel we need a touch more for the reshove.

Preflop is fine.

On the flop, I'm not sure why we put villain on strictly AA?

In any case, ran some numbers and it definitely looks like a fold. If we were heads-up vs the 3bettor, it would have been a very marginal stackoff, but given our weak equity in a 3-way scenario we stand to lose a bit more than 3BB on stacking off here.

My assumptions were that SB is 3betting 6% and potting flop with any decent piece (J+,FD,Wrap - about 82% of his range ). BTN will stack off against our shove with 2p+, good draws and some made hands + draw combos (Jcc).

You're thinking too much in qualitative terms. Using too many "arguments".

It's generally possible to talk yourself into a whole lot of total nonsense using arguments.

E.g.:

You are dealt AA72 double-suited in MP and it's folded to you.

"In PLO, you want all four of your cards to work together. Here, we have AA, A7, A2, and 72, which are nothing more than holdem hands. We also have two danglers -- the 7 and the 2. So it's a good idea not to bloat the pot OOP with this speculative hand. We should limp and try to flop an ace or maybe a flush draw."

Hero limps. CO/BTN fold. SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: 774r.

SB/BB check to us.

"Okay, PLO is a game of the nuts. We don't quite have the nuts here, but we're in position, and we have blockers to 74 and 77 so it's less likely we're up against the nuts. One of the advantages of being in position, however, is the ability to check behind and take a free card. And here we should opt to do that because we have three outs to the nuts and we don't want to get blown off of our equity -- we'll be in a difficult spot if we face a check-raise in a three-way pot because people don't bluff a lot at the micros. Our hand doesn't need a lot of protection, either, and since we block a seven not a lot of worse hands can call. The prudent play is to use our position and try to improve and realize our equity and try to use our blockers on a later street."

Hero checks.

That's clearly crazy talk -- but it uses a lot of basic PLO concepts that are widely known (albeit somewhat unreliable), and it uses familiar (nonsense) slogans like "PLO is a game of the nuts". And it does so very logically!

That's sort of the impression that I get from the way you're thinking about PLO (but less insane, of course). You're using a hodgepodge of somewhat unreliable concepts to reach conclusions that are incorrect.

hypothetically, the described spot I'd 3x or max raise pre, bet pot OTF
I still think it depends on what you try to do. The described spot by OP is still readless and not once mentioned what he's looking for but at the same time assuming villan has AA,so what the heck I'm calling for? I read generalizations with no regard to the spot or handranges/tendencies. Essentially playing good old omaha lotto?

OK, sorry. I stop now.
GL&HF

^U misunderstood the original question. It was just like: "could we shove profitably in that spot against AA"? And the answer is: NO.
It's indeed a simple math question, not even as close as I thought at the first glance. If I had the nut flush draw though, the anser would not be the same.