Quote:
Originally Posted by Adebisi
It's possible. There's a lot of math that I'm not going to bother doing. I'm on my phone so no PPT, but I'm guessing you're about 56/44 pre vs. a non-******ed cold-call a 4b not closing the action range, so you make 140ish in the side pot by jamming...BUT he now gets to realize 100% of his equity in the $1600 main pot (assuming button always gets his last 100 in pre). By delaying getting in the last 950, you still probably have a 56/44+ edge on the side pot when it happens, but you get to deny him a fair chunk of equity in the main when he correctly folds a 25% equity hand vs. your flop jam. Hell, he might even sometimes incorrectly fold a 30% equity hand vs. your jam. So, now the question is when he flops a check/folding hand, is it more likely to be a 25% equity hand or like an 8% equity hand? Then you have to look at the money you save when he donk jams a 654hhh type board.
Jamming pre is for sure profitable, but playing in a HU dry side-pot with ds KK in position and an SPR of .7 is also for sure profitable. Lots of drudgery to find out which is better, but it's not worth doing since this situation is so unique. Personally, I'd err on the side of calling here because I think if calling nets you less than the 140ish you make in the side pot preflop all-in, it's likely not much less. But it's possible calling nets significantly more than jamming.
I dont agree here. I understand your reasoning but calling will never net more in the long term than jamming here unless villain is an absolute FISH. Also we are not technically HU if we call as BTN has extra $100 which is going in regardless i'm sure.
By calling, the flop has us rarely drawing to a nut hand. And what hand is going to pay us off when we do hit it hard. ALL QQ XX - will muck flop in this case and we pick up a small side and lose main. Any A on the board puts us in a tough position also as does any other picture other than a K because its conceivable villain can call now with QQXX - TTXX. We've also told villain we dont have AAxx if we flat.
We have no idea what HJ Villain has, all we know is we are ahead so why risk playing a flop. What flops are we happy to continue on? We can make a lot more decisions(and potential mistakes) by playing flop here. GII