Rush poker so no reads


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $102.95
Hero (BTN): $133.95
SB: $252.15
BB: $138.40
UTG: $35.80
MP: $97.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A K A 9
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, CO calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.50) J 3 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $25.50, CO raises to $90.95 all in, Hero calls

I just get it in. You are only like 40/60 vs a J and a FD, 25/75 vs 2 pair and crushed by a set of J's. It's only costing you $65 to win $142, I think at a little better than 2/1 you should get it in.

Once you pot it, you are obv committed to calling it off. Your problem in this hand is mashing the pot btn. Pre flop i would usually just make it $10. Most of your 3 bets should be hands which are not AAxx, so raising slightly smaller means you can control the size of their 4 bet if they have aces, and either give yourself better odds to hit and stack them, or if you are 3bet/folding you save a little more money. Only 2bb, but that's an extra 2bb on your win rate.

Having raised to just $10 pre, we can now just bet/fold $12-16 on the flop. We have no draws, no redraws and when he shoves here he has min Jxxxw/fd, or i guess if you are really lucky 4567 no spades.

I have no issue with preflop. I mean mashing pot with double suited aces on the button pre isn't exactly going to be a huge leak.

Flop cbet is standard, though potting is completely unnecesarry on a board like this, I'd much rather make it something like $16-20 and expect to take it down the majority of the time. He'll have whiffed a lot of the time, and should have sets very infrequently. His check raising range will mostly be comprised of things like pair+fd, sometimes 456 and sets, which has us in pretty bad shape since we have no redraws or even backdoors. Vs his range we've probably got something like 35% on average.

Since this is vs an unknown I'd assume he's not going to c/r us light so I'd bet/fold the flop.

It's the flop bet sizing which gets you into trouble here, since potting inflates the pot size and makes us closer to comitted when he comes over the top.

I usually raise smaller pre with my whole (big obv) range here.

pre is std to pot in my book. with no reads i'm b/f like 18 on the flop

check flop. it will freak villian out.

why don't we go even further and extract money from the pot back into our stack?

open fold

actually thinking about it, I'm not sure how good the b/f line is here, since the board really isn't horrendous. I guess that bet call is fine, though it's probably more of a big roll-eye sigh and call. In a 3bet pot it really can't be that bad of a mistake, and the fact that it's rush where people spazz in 3bet pots so often (top pair the nuts yo) maybe weakens his range a little bit.

I dunno, I think it's hard to make a huge mistake either way really.

that would be great. i would suggest doing this. for $12 you can get chicken alfredo at olive garden man that **** is good.

in all seriousness you pot commited yourself. bf 18.

however its not like this flop is super likely to his his 3bet call range so i would say you're equity is not really that bad in this situation. by not bad i mean you are not crushed. obviously we have to cbet this flop. if he had jjxx thats just bad luck. i prefer potting it otf if we have 50 bb instead of 100 or if we have any type of redraw like gutter flush etc

Completely standard... This is why Omaha is ****ing evil with its variance. The middle of his range when the money goes in on this flop is something like this:


table]ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: J32
[/table]

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AH9hAckc	30.62%	183,522	353
JsTs**	69.38%	416,125	353

And we get owned.... TBH I always play the same as you do, but it tilts the **** out of me when they show JJxx or 45** or some other **** that hits these flops, and tbh on that board they have hit 50% of the time at least which is ***** gay, they like often have a J here or if there rundown was lower then they have some kind of pair+wrap alot, then they have like a 27%(someone clarify this plz im just guessing) of having spades aswell. So the flop decision is down to how often they have these kinda hands in 3 bet pots:how often they have 3card+pair type hands or worse. Because there is that big split int he flop it is usually safe to get it in here, but with connecting spades and a ****ing J (the worst card if you have AA imo) variance is gonna be a pain in the ass.

You can play a lower variance style here and 3bet smaller pre, no matter what 3bet size you use when 100bbs deep, if they don't 4bet you need variance on your side with flop texture. In the long run this line pays off slightly on these boards, not so much in rush though, position is more useful when you know their game.

so to summarise this flop is in the middle of pian in the ass and fistpump, if the 3 was a 9 then we are usually ****ed but on tis one I think its ok to pot/get it in.

**** b/f here just mkae sure oyu have 000s of buy ins

yeah i can agree on this point, however players with a tendency to just keep mashing the pot button are imo slowly bleeding money they could easily save by adding a little craft into their bet sizing.

that depends. I usually just pot pre, since it's nice to start building pots early for when we want to get all in postflop. Sometimes I'll alter my 3bet sizing, but it's usually stack size dependent. however I completely agree that just mashing pot postflop is a leak.

3 betting and c betting smaller has nothing to do with lower variance, and everything to do with lower exploitablility.