[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8455792

UTG: $324.40 (162.2 bb)
Hero (MP): $393.95 (197 bb)
CO: $104.30 (52.2 bb)
BTN: $182 (91 bb)
SB: $302.35 (151.2 bb)
BB: $97 (48.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A 7 A 3
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, CO folds, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($21) 5 Q 8 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $55.95, UTG folds, Hero ?

Villain is playing 32/8 with low aggression stats. Hasn't done anything bizarre but seems like a fairly weak and straight forward player. Guess my bet sizing on flop sucks. Bet $16 and fold to a pot raise instead?

get it in obv, backdoor gutters

I think $16 is a really bad size on the flop. Either pot it or bet the size you did but $16 has no real purpose.

As it is I find it hard to fold these hands but against someone with low aggression stats I could be convinced it's correct. If he's basically only raising 2pair++ hands here and calling with stuff like Q+clubs then it's a fold. If he's getting in any flush draw + a bit more to go with it then you gotta stick it in.

The point is that you are never in bad shape, and you are only -EV against the very top of his range. If he has bad/passive enough to only have precicely trup QQQ here then I guess you can fold and be able to easily take advantage of him later, but against a reasonable range you are +EV especially if he like raises folds Q8j9 hands (these opponets are rare, top two should effectively never raise fold on this board texture).


But Plo is a game that allows you to get it in with like 40%+ even if its obvious that you are beat so even exceptional players who have gamble in them will say LOL F U lets flip for stacks!!

if he is so passive, it means probably a set, cant we just flat? we have 10 outs against him, and stacks are deep enough that we have implied odds I think, especially when we flop A ott

32/8 on the button he flats pre. So he flops a wrap with a flush draw here - which is when our AA** with flush draw pwns, I think from description he flats this flop donk.

So, what else can he realistically have other than QQ? There's maybe a little KK plus flush draw. But his range is massively weighted towards sets.

Our flop bet sizing is not that important really imo - but this is a fold.

can someone expain why we cannot flat? 10 outs + this villain wont let it go after a or flush hits on the turn imo

if we are nearly sure about set and if we think that villain wont give us any action if flush comes folding is best. if we think he cannot fold set if flush comes we can call because of implied odds. Because we dont know exactly what he has and we might make incorrect fold on blankcos shoving is most likely best choice.

and because UTG check and we made such a weak bet btn is probably going to raise more lightly than normaly if we had bet example 17 or so.

Also, I was thinking if he's that passive that he's going to slow down on str8ey turns then we'll probably get 2 cards so a call is even more fine.

Ok I ran some maths and here are the results:
If we are to shove with no FE then we are putting 164 in a 373$ pot and we need 44% equity. now using propokertools, I gave him a super tight range consisting of: (QQ**, 88** & 50%, 55** & 20%, Qc8*c*) and we are 34% against that.
I personnaly think that this range is too tight considering his raise sizing and the fact that our flop sizing should entice things even from that kind of opponent, so I ran one adding some strong pair+big draw but the equity is pretty much the same.

I guess it's a clear fold, but I prolly would have shiped. btw the inflection stack size is:
(x-18)/(2x+9)=0.34 <=> x=66

We can still consider a call imo since turns should be very easy to play, and I don't expect it to be massively +ev though.

if you make a thread on it you can't narrow his range enough for it to be obvious so u get it in

gotta shove imo, range should be wide enough to do it against a 91bb effective,

nice post btw.. equity should not be the same if you add semi bluff weight to the set portion, I would have thought so anyway...

i think i get this in 100/100 times

Yeah it does change, but not nearly enough. I didn't add that many combos coz given ur read he's prolly not raising a 976 when there's a flsuh draw on board.

Still I'd go for the "he must have air here sometimes" and stick it in.

this is the problem, if you put in say XX** and JT98, XX** will be weighted alot heavier... its hard to get an accurate analysis because of the amount of combos there are, I think its possible to guess, say we weight sets to 60% 30% semi bluff and 10% weaker semi bluff, put 6 set combos, 3 semi bluff variations and one like pair+gs combo then we get a more averaged and balanced result...

'QQ**, 88** & 50%' not such how this works, but adding a combo to this amount of combos is not gonna effect the avg equity very much at all... the difference should be significant.

You're right, but I based my calculations on the main read we were given; What that means to me is that he isn't the type to raise JT98on a two tone board. But maybe I'm wrong.
Despite that, I still think it's close and wouldn't consider folding vs any opponent but this type.

This and why the **** are u not 3 balling pre against utg opener with position.

Cuz I'm not that good at PLO and didn't want a huge pot without good sidecards against an UTG open where I'm going to hate being c/r'ed on most flops. Doesn't mean it's the most +EV, but I'm still learning and don't want to get into really high varience spots for very small +EV, plus I can overset people on the flop easy if someone calls behind. Am I being too conservative with my thinking here?

think some stop and gos are good for balance here, calling and shoving most turn cards widens your range and makes it a lot easier for villain to make a mistake, doubt villain is raise folding and best you can hope to get it in against is a lesser flush draw with a piece of the board

I think it's fine, especially considering you're 160bb deep. I'd gladly 3bet if you had been 3betting him a lot before tho'.

gotta always 3bet if double suited or sidecards are like 75 76 78 79
can 3bet here also if you have a widish <pot 3bet range against openers on your right
otherwise agree that flat is fine, but genereally i am always 3betting something unless I don't have an edge or read on the opener or there ar lots of loose passive villains to act

Never folding here. I pot flop and get it in. Seriously. Against almost everyting we have 40+% and there is money in te pot from preflop. I rather make the 'too-light stackoff' then an incorrect passive line/fold down the road ...

EDIT: lol, just realized how old this post is. Got here thru some link and mixed up the windows. But still applies today, obv :-)