I only played against the villain for 21 hands, and he had played 80% of the hands so I think its safe to say he's super loose. The backdoor straight got there and there are two higher sets, but there are also a couple of missed draws and the river is huge at this point, so I'm thinking I don't have to be right that often.

Am I ever good on the river?

PokerStars - $0.05 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 300.2 BB (VPIP: 34.00, PFR: 19.00, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 103)
SB: 250 BB (VPIP: 26.13, PFR: 16.89, 3Bet Preflop: 2.40, Hands: 448)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.30, PFR: 11.46, 3Bet Preflop: 5.30, Hands: 423)
Hero (UTG): 254.6 BB
MP: 180.4 BB (VPIP: 61.36, PFR: 6.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)
CO: 159.4 BB (VPIP: 85.71, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9 8 9 8

Hero raises to 3.4 BB, MP calls 3.4 BB, CO calls 3.4 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (11.6 BB, 3 players) 9 5 3
Hero bets 11.2 BB, MP calls 11.2 BB, CO calls 11.2 BB

Turn: (45.2 BB, 3 players) T
Hero bets 40 BB, fold, CO calls 40 BB

River: (125.2 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, CO bets 104.8 BB and is all-in, Hero ?????

cawl

This looks like a busted draw that is shoving and may be some of the time, but i vomit and fold probably. I just have not found looking villains up in this spot to be profitable. I'd like to hear more from the better players on this one. Anybody like a blocking bet instead of check/decide?

fold he backdoored into something that beats your hand.

Yeah at .5 PLO I think I'm about 0/15 making this sort of call.

A time after my last hero call I forget what happened last time and start talking to myself about "So many draws just bricked, I have blockers to the hand hes repping, his range is polarized, who would get to this river with the hand that beats me..." and so forth.

They always have the nuts, and I SWEAR to never pay them off again.

having the eights and nines would matter against someone that isn't playing playing every hand and never giving up on some backdoor equity.

the only real thing you have to determine is if he's a bluffer. if he is then make the call. if he isn't then fold. there are lots of stats to determine what he does on the river with hands that aren't the nuts, I'm sure you could look someone of them up if you had more hands on him. since you don't, based on the 0% 3b pf and the stakes, I'm going to guess he's not a bluffer. so I'd fold.

but if you mouse over and he's Scandinavian you might want to call.

This spot really is sick, but it's a call.

We checked to induce a bet, not because we're overly worried about backdoor JK,J8. Also, we have the best hand we can possibly have here, if we c/f we're folding everything once we check, exploitable much?

%30ish will do

and:


Edit: I missed that this is PLO5, thought it was higher. Snap!

at plo5 they have J846r KJ46r often enough here to make it pretty nasty

there is also QQ + fd which has easy time shoving

but call is standard

it's only exploitable if they are able to realize it and exploit it. I really don't like arguing for balance and playing unexploitably when we're discussing a villain that may only be shoving better here.

(that being said, you may be right that it's a call. and regardless the rest of your reasoning is sound and would be applicable against thinking villains at higher stakes)

against described opponent you will be good here well over 50% imo. he might just call any draw on flop and turn and almost all of them lose to you.

Please don't check this river to check fold. As IBETUFOLD has said, we're checking here only to induce a bluff. Sure, now you've got to this spot and have decided to check you could argue for folding if villain definitely doesn't seem like a bluffer but that just makes the decision to check in the first place ridiculous. That said with such a high VPIP he'd have to be really passive for this not to be a call.

But yeah you should be shipping this river yourself. So much value against a player with that high of a VPIP.

c/r turn

Meh, I'm not a big fan of c/r 3 way. Protection is vital here and letting 2 villans see the river when every river, aside from obv board pair, completes a straight and or flush is bad IMO.

Pot is big, we have the best hand 99+%of the time, no reason to get cute.

I don't think we need to have much of a value c/r range in general at these stakes, especially not in this spot. People are playing PLO 5 for a reason, and it's not because they like are super aggro, pushing for FE, they like to call, let them.

Hmm without much reads I think we have to call because we have a nice hand, thousands of draws bricked and we block some straights.

It's pretty common though that players don't bluff their missed draws in these passive games and def don't vbet light...

+1

I'm check raising here all day, just cause we are 3 handed, and they both called a pot on flop. No way it gets checked through, some monkey will be thinking about his equity, then decide magically he can increase his chances of betting by potting.

As played, I think river is a puke call. You only need to be right here 1/3. Not sure if you are, its close. U unfortunately will be shown J8/JK a lot. make sure you note him, to write 100bb bet on river, was rivered straight/air.

@ low stakes, building river profiles is good, a lot of guys just won't fire >30bb without it.

Regardless of whether we shoudl call or not, checking here is pretty absurd given how many hands in his range that will call a bet but probably not bet himself especially if we don't know if he will turn missed draws into bluffs. Incredibly easy value bet on the river, just not sure what size is best, given all the draws missed, I probably just jam, its close though.