€5 10SnG prebub BP+3FD+OESD cold jam - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

coon74 · 06-11-2012, 12:23 PM

PLO tournament, prizes €25-€15-€10, blinds t75/t150, 5 players

SB t19250
BB t26925
UTG t8600
CO t13800
Hero (BTN) t11425 K

4

T

7

UTG raises to t450, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds

Flop (t1950, 4 players) Q

J

4

SB bets t1950, UTG raises to t7800 (t350 left), CO folds, Hero (t10975 left)?

SB and UTG are both decent LAGs, UTG is a smallballer but is spewy in big pots (in our HU history he didn't fold a KK overpair to my crAI) so I expect wide ranges there (see in the below sims, where player 2 is SB and player 3 is UTG, and please comment on the ranges, there are so many possibilities that I'm afraid I might include smth too weak but forget about smth strong.)

On the other hand, it's the prebubble and an AI is due, so there's an option to stay out of it and let SB bust UTG, clearing a bit my way to the money. Plus unfortunately my 3rd FD can be dominated.

So here are my sims and you please correct the ranges and check my sanity. Thanks in advance.

Simulated 100000 Omaha Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
Board :: QcJc4s

Code:

Pot 1:
 Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                                       Range                                          
    
   1       34.2     31.9     4.7                                         Kh4hTc7c                                   
   2       40.2     38.5     3.5      (QQ,JJ,44,QJ,(KT,T9,AT8)&(Q,J,4),(Q4,J4,KT,T9,AT8)&*c*c,(Q,J,4,K,T)&Ac*c)&30% 
   3       25.6     23.9     3.5                          (AA-JJ,Ac*c,44,QJ,Q4,J4,KT,T9,AT8)&15%                    
Pot 2:
 Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                                       Range                                          
    
   1       45.6     44.1     3.0                                         Kh4hTc7c                                   
   2       54.4     52.9     3.0      (QQ,JJ,44,QJ,(KT,T9,AT8)&(Q,J,4),(Q4,J4,KT,T9,AT8)&*c*c,(Q,J,4,K,T)&Ac*c)&30% 
   3       0.0      0.0      0.0                          (AA-JJ,Ac*c,44,QJ,Q4,J4,KT,T9,AT8)&15%                    
Pot 3:
 Player   Equity   Win Hi   Tie Hi                                       Range                                          
    
   1       0.0      0.0      0.0                                         Kh4hTc7c                                   
   2       59.3     58.1     2.3      (QQ,JJ,44,QJ,(KT,T9,AT8)&(Q,J,4),(Q4,J4,KT,T9,AT8)&*c*c,(Q,J,4,K,T)&Ac*c)&30% 
   3       40.7     39.6     2.3                          (AA-JJ,Ac*c,44,QJ,Q4,J4,KT,T9,AT8)&15%

According to icmpoker.com, my €EV (tournament share) is:

if I fold and SB wins the AI - €8.62;
if I fold and BB wins the AI - €7.48;
if I shove and scoop both pots - €16.92;
if I shove and win the side pot only - €4.51;
if I shove and get busted - €0 ldo.

Thus (I ignore splits) if I fold my €EV is €8.62*0.59+€7.48*0.41=€8.15, if I shove my €EV is €16.92*0.34+€4.51*0.11=€6.25

- in a cash game it would be a breakeven shove but in the SnG prebubble it's clearly -EV.

BBV OT: I was such a spewtard last week as you've seen above but won €56 pre-RB (PLO25 on average), in the previous 4 days when I wasn't that spewy I lost €207 pre-RB. The universe is rigged.

sump · 06-11-2012, 01:31 PM

I don't mind just folding here. We are deep and close to the bubble. We don't have the greatest draw. If we are up against a NFD+pr we are in tough shape and a set is not out f the question. IMO it seems like SB has set/2pr and uTG can have Fd+pair so we are gambling more than anything here.