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08-22-2016 , 03:58 AM
#1
Mindead
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[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $71.10 (284.4 bb)
BB: $67.95 (271.8 bb)
UTG: $25.86 (103.4 bb)
MP: $56.89 (227.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)
BTN: $26.38 (105.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A A 3 5
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN raises to $2.60, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8.15, BTN calls $5.55

Flop: ($16.65) 8 K J (2 players)
Hero ?

Is ok to check/fold here? Villain seems std reg, just with a high 3bet of 20%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 8KJ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsAc3h5c29.51% 171,30811,465
20%70.49% 417,22711,465
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08-22-2016 , 06:51 AM
#2
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You can jam here 100% and be +EV.

It's a ****ty board, but I'm sure you can get him to maybe fold a few hands that do ok against you equity wise.

Martin would fold, due to instincts.

P.S. If you'd open pot pf instead of 3x you'd have an even better argument for jamming. But I don't think it makes much of a difference.
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08-22-2016 , 07:30 AM
#3
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It's pretty disgusting, but not bad enough to c/f,
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08-22-2016 , 08:47 PM
#4
Mindead
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Thanks guys
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08-22-2016 , 11:42 PM
#5
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To calculate it simple:

Pot is 17$ and you have 17$ left. That means: You need 33% equity in this spot. Based on the numbers you have "only" 30% but villain will fold for sure fold some hands, that would have enough equity against your hand and this will make it a +EV spot for you.

My feeling says: Checking is bad because of gametheory. By checking you are giving villain the opportunity to put you in the situation where you can make mistakes because you don`t know which kind hands he will bet against you.

You need to make him fold his equity-hands in this spot. Thats your only possibility here.
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08-23-2016 , 12:05 AM
#6
Mindead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Controlling
To calculate it simple:

Pot is 17$ and you have 17$ left. That means: You need 33% equity in this spot. Based on the numbers you have "only" 30% but villain will fold for sure fold some hands, that would have enough equity against your hand and this will make it a +EV spot for you.

My feeling says: Checking is bad because of gametheory. By checking you are giving villain the opportunity to put you in the situation where you can make mistakes because you don`t know which kind hands he will bet against you.

You need to make him fold his equity-hands in this spot. Thats your only possibility here.
Wrong.

Villain folding some hands doesn't mean necessarily it is autoprofit. Villain could be folding hands that have 20% of equity against us but calling with all hands that have the enough equity and that would be actually worse for us.
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08-23-2016 , 12:49 AM
#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mindead
Wrong.

Villain folding some hands doesn't mean necessarily it is autoprofit. Villain could be folding hands that have 20% of equity against us but calling with all hands that have the enough equity and that would be actually worse for us.
I think your thought is flawed. If we gii every time and villain calls every time we have 30% equity.

Villain will never ever make perfect decisions here. Take the hand below i.e..

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ8
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
8s7h6h9s52.56% 4310
asac5c3h47.44% 3890

You sure you would call?

and by the way: i didn`t say that every fold of villain is good for us. I said he will fold some hands that would have enough equity. And these folds makes it +ev for us.
Last edited by Controlling; 08-23-2016 at 01:09 AM.
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08-23-2016 , 01:52 AM
#8
Mindead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Controlling
I think your thought is flawed. If we gii every time and villain calls every time we have 30% equity.

Villain will never ever make perfect decisions here. Take the hand below i.e..

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: KJ8
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
8s7h6h9s52.56% 4310
asac5c3h47.44% 3890

You sure you would call?

and by the way: i didn`t say that every fold of villain is good for us. I said he will fold some hands that would have enough equity. And these folds makes it +ev for us.
I didn't say shoving was wrong. Just that villain folding some hands doesn't make it autoprofitable. He could make it actually worse for us if he would fold just the right hands.

Anyway, I am agree with you that in this spot he will fold some hands he should not fold. Then the argument work there.

I did the simulation on Poker Juice. if we give villain a calling range of K+, our shove is break even
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08-23-2016 , 02:30 AM
#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mindead
I didn't say shoving was wrong. Just that villain folding some hands doesn't make it autoprofitable. He could make it actually worse for us if he would fold just the right hands.

Anyway, I am agree with you that in this spot he will fold some hands he should not fold. Then the argument work there.

I did the simulation on Poker Juice. if we give villain a calling range of K+, our shove is break even
I doubt that we are break even with a calling range of K+. I think with a calling range of K+ we should have a very high EV, because that means that villain is folding a lot of good hands in this spot and all these folds would increase our EV in this situation. Or not?
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08-23-2016 , 02:50 AM
#10
Mindead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Controlling
I doubt that we are break even with a calling range of K+. I think with a calling range of K+ we should have a very high EV, because that means that villain is folding a lot of good hands in this spot and all these folds would increase our EV in this situation. Or not?
He will be folding hands with less than 33% of equity too. I think that balance numbers
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08-23-2016 , 02:56 AM
#11
gay_on_tse
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Villain calls much wider than K+
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08-23-2016 , 03:15 AM
#12
Mindead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gay_on_tse
Villain calls much wider than K+
That would make our shove -ev

Villain will wide his calling range toward board pairs and wraps. Not toward 5567
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08-23-2016 , 03:35 AM
#13
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It's close but it's a fold according to pokerjuice, even if you give him as tight of a range as
only 2 pairs and wraps or better calling the shove on the flop it's still -$1.58 EV before rake.
(Stack-off range of 8J+, 9T+).
He needs to be either folding 2 pairs (+$1.02) for it to be profitable, even if we only get called by all 2 pairs and wrap+ it's -.80

Also this thread really confused me about situations where you have an SPR of 1 and ~33% equity vs. their preflop entire range, is it possible to be exploited by shoving every flop?
What is the correct move by hero/villain in this type of situation?
Last edited by tofurocks; 08-23-2016 at 03:52 AM.
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08-23-2016 , 03:51 AM
#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tofurocks
It's close but it's a fold according to pokerjuice, even if you give him as tight of a range as
only 2 pairs and wraps or better calling the shove on the flop it's still -$1.58 EV before rake.
(Stack-off range of 8J+, 9T+).
He needs to be either folding 2 pairs (+$1.02) for it to be profitable, even if we only get called by all 2 pairs and wrap+ it's -.80
Interesting. I assume now that vallian is calling almost his entire range here. Or not?
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08-23-2016 , 04:04 AM
#15
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It's actually not, I would have thought that the shove would be profitable if he was folding this much of his range (although I assume he would call much wider in practice). I think I'm doing this correctly though?


If villain stacks off 100% of the time we lost $-1.99, can we lose more than this if they exploit us? Or should they theoretically be calling every hand if they know they have an EV advantage against all of our preflop range?
Edit: Nevermind, if they stack off with 8+,9T+ we actually lose $-2.23, so does that mean that the BTN can exploit by only calling when they have at least enough equity on the flop (assuming they know our hole cards)?
Last edited by tofurocks; 08-23-2016 at 04:13 AM.
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08-23-2016 , 04:15 AM
#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tofurocks
It's actually not, I would have thought that the shove would be profitable if he was folding this much of his range (although I assume he would call much wider in practice). I think I'm doing this correctly though?


If villain stacks off 100% of the time we lost $-1.99, can we lose more than this if they exploit us? Or should they theoretically be calling every hand if they know they have an EV advantage against all of our preflop range?
Don`t know if it makes much of a difference but i would use $FI20 ($4b4 excluded) for his preflop range.
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08-23-2016 , 04:45 AM
#17
Mindead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tofurocks
It's close but it's a fold according to pokerjuice, even if you give him as tight of a range as
only 2 pairs and wraps or better calling the shove on the flop it's still -$1.58 EV before rake.
(Stack-off range of 8J+, 9T+).
He needs to be either folding 2 pairs (+$1.02) for it to be profitable, even if we only get called by all 2 pairs and wrap+ it's -.80

Also this thread really confused me about situations where you have an SPR of 1 and ~33% equity vs. their preflop entire range, is it possible to be exploited by shoving every flop?
What is the correct move by hero/villain in this type of situation?
Yes it is possible. You can have 33% equity against a range, but that doesn't mean shoving will not be a losing play.

As I said, if villain folds hands with less than 33% equity against our range, then he is getting profit in the spot.
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08-23-2016 , 04:47 AM
#18
Mindead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tofurocks
It's actually not, I would have thought that the shove would be profitable if he was folding this much of his range (although I assume he would call much wider in practice). I think I'm doing this correctly though?


If villain stacks off 100% of the time we lost $-1.99, can we lose more than this if they exploit us? Or should they theoretically be calling every hand if they know they have an EV advantage against all of our preflop range?
Edit: Nevermind, if they stack off with 8+,9T+ we actually lose $-2.23, so does that mean that the BTN can exploit by only calling when they have at least enough equity on the flop (assuming they know our hole cards)?
Calling everyhand from villain perspective would be stupid. He can estimate the equity of his hand against our 4bet range (wich uses to be AA** with some other few premium hands) and call only with more than 33% of equity against such range.
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08-23-2016 , 04:48 AM
#19
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I am not a Juice-expert, but i tried also something. Looks like that villain is here calling almost his entire range. obv i overvalued the % of good hands that he could fold. Please correct me, if there is something wrong with this juice calc.

thx op for posting this hand by the way. Nice one for training. again something learned. ;-)

[IMG][/IMG]
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08-23-2016 , 05:17 AM
#20
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You can use 9T+ for all OESD's and 8+ for all hands with a pair of aces or better, etc. to make this easier
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08-23-2016 , 05:33 AM
#21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tofurocks
You can use 9T+ for all OESD's and 8+ for all hands with a pair of aces or better, etc. to make this easier
hmmm. But when i put 8+ in there then this would also include hands like QQ77 i.e. or not? just wanted to exclude these...
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08-23-2016 , 09:51 AM
#22
Mindead
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Yes it will include them
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