Villain is a reg. 31/18 and 3betting 8% (8% vs steal). We have no history together.
Preflop I 4bet/fold b/c I have an A blocker and we are slightly deep so I am not priced into calling a shove or anything. Like or should I just call pre?
OTF I obv cbet once it get's checked to me. I wasn't sure about the sizing. Since the flop was so dry (sept FD) I chose to bet smallish.
Vs his shove I need 32% to call. He shouldn't have any sets, straights and also no 2pairs (maaaybe 4567ds) so ez call?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($159)
BB ($81.03)
UTG ($49.25)
CO ($59.57)
Hero ($133)

Dealt to Hero T K K A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, fold, BB raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $13.75, BB calls $9.25

FLOP ($27.75) 2 6 4

BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB raises to $67.28 (AI), Hero calls $52.28

4bet std, flop std b/c

Hi All,

Okay I agree pre-flop is absolutely standard and fine. Post-flop I disagree, we have naked kings, little chance of a redraw to a better hand (2 kings and runner runner for a strange set), no straight, no flush.

We have to think what are up against, if it's AA we are a 20% dog

ProPokerTools 5-Card Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 264

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
tdkckhac	17.68%	101,998	8,177
AA	82.32%	489,825	8,177

If it's a wrap we are 50:50

ProPokerTools 5-Card Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 264

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
tdkckhac	49.68%	296,850	2,471
5678,6789,789t,89,89tj,9tjq	50.32%	300,679	2,471

And the villian may have flopped a flush which means we are really screwed. Looks at the villains stats, I think it is pretty much weighted to AA or a wrap, with AA being likely 70% of the time. So for me this is either a b/f or c/f. I'm not stacking off in this situation.

Anyone disagree or is this a leak in my game?

There is about 0,32 % possibility that he has AA.

He should have some 3467, 3567, 5689 etc. combos in hes range, but most likely outing is that he has AsXs and just goes with it. After we bet flop there's no room for us to back up anymore, so we just have to go with it.

if we have 50% equity (I still think your sim is wrong btw (very very wrong actually)) we cannot fold.

Just noticed a rogue 89 in the straight sim.

I suppose my real question is if he does this with aces we only have 18% equity, thats a pretty dumb call in that situation. If he has straights in his range then I could stack off, but deep down I'd know every time he'd have aces and I'd end up crying.

We need 48% equity to call each and every time, if we assume his straights are 50:50 (roughly true), if he is playing his AA and wraps an equal number of times we are only getting around 35%. For me it's still a fold, a crying fold.

Mind you I am an idiot fish.

You seem to be missing that villain cannot have AA because he would jam pre.

Yes I was. I can not read

I very much doubt he has AA.

^^ I agree with this.

I think (in most cases) this is an easy call.

OK, I am surprised no one mentioned this yet. But he is only 3 betting 8% of hands.
Now about 4-5% are aces, what is left is basically premium rundowns. He could be the type that just never 3 bets KK and AA there and instead chooses to 3 bet rundown hands,( read oop. and deep) but that is impossible to tell by the stats.

I would def bet get it in on the flop and there is 0 chance im folding this flop.

You gave no information about his post flop game but I would expect him to show up here with any A high flush draw, possibly even weaker that just did not what to do and shipped it.
Since you posted this hand Im guessing he probably did show up with the low rundown hand, but just take a note of it, and next time your in similar pot vs him, it is safe to assume that he probably never 3 bets KK there and most likely not even AA ( atleast nothing but very premium.). Instead he chooses rundown hands.

BET CALL IT OFF MAN!

suprised no one mentioned doublepaired hands. Pretty sure he shows up with random QQ66 and JJ44 here a bunch. That being said, pretty sure this is still a bcall because he also shows up with like AKQ6ds with no spades that we crush.

b/c>>>c/f>>>b/f. He never ever has AA here so our equity is fine vs. his range. If ur a huge nit u can c/f here but its not really good. pls dont b/f here worst possible option.