Seem's passive even w made hands unless nuts. Not sure if capable of bluffing here but doubt it. I feel like he has some weird 3 here a lot. I feel like if he didn't have anything he bets $1 on the turn and after I call shuts down on river.
why are we calling turn and folding river? afraid of 99?
I feel like people can make a weird 1/5 pot bet enough with like KKxx, or like AQxx to justify calling even though you have like 7% equity vs a tighter value range of full houses and rando trips. Obviously the 9 doesn't change much but the bigger river bet definitely narrows his range quite a bit in my mind.
good spot to 3bet to 9 preflop, let utg shove and reopen the betting to 80bb or w/ever it is.
+1 to this.
Post flop play I'm not sure why you're HP this flop and then checking turn? It's like as soon as you were called on the flop you suspected you might be behind. What worse hands were you expecting to call flop bet? Like if you think any Qx is calling then you're still ahead a large % OTT. Now there's a FD out there I'd be wanting to bet again and shipping is going to be un-exploitable. If you don't think he's calling flop bet that wide then you want to be looking at your flop bet sizing. There's no need to HP this flop especially in a side pot unless it is purely for value. We have little to protect against on this flop and a bet of 1/4-1/3 pot achieves the same job of getting him to fold his misses (that might pick up equity OTT) or will make him more likely to call with Qx and maybe some other stuff.
Calling turn to fold river is fine as played - yeah, we could fold turn and it's probably correct but no need to compound a small mistake OTT by a bigger mistake OTR.
Post flop play I'm not sure why you're HP this flop and then checking turn? It's like as soon as you were called on the flop you suspected you might be behind. What worse hands were you expecting to call flop bet? Like if you think any Qx is calling then you're still ahead a large % OTT. Now there's a FD out there I'd be wanting to bet again and shipping is going to be un-exploitable. If you don't think he's calling flop bet that wide then you want to be looking at your flop bet sizing. There's no need to HP this flop especially in a side pot unless it is purely for value. We have little to protect against on this flop and a bet of 1/4-1/3 pot achieves the same job of getting him to fold his misses (that might pick up equity OTT) or will make him more likely to call with Qx and maybe some other stuff.
Calling turn to fold river is fine as played - yeah, we could fold turn and it's probably correct but no need to compound a small mistake OTT by a bigger mistake OTR.
I HP because if I pot then I get most of the hands I'm a ahead of to fold. I guess I HP for value here because that board is kind of tough to connect with. A weak Q comes along but these players are capable of folding just a Q without any big side cards to too much strength.
I check turn because villains range is polar at this point. If I jam I get Q to fold or could be jamming into a 3. If he check's turn then I feel confident enough to extract a little more value on the river from a Q W/ 1/3rd pot bet.
Please let me know if this is overthinking it or if my thought process is a little off here.
Last edited by IStackDeadPeople; 08-20-2014 at 12:45 PM.