BTN: $3.79
SB: $1.77
Hero (BB): $2.00
UTG: $2.15
MP: $1.54
CO: $2.13

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 6 J T 8
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 5 J Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.13) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.10, BTN calls $0.10

River: ($0.33) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.18, BTN raises to $0.67, Hero folds

Preflop: Looks like a standard defend to me

Flop: Not much to be said

Turn: I'm not sure if betting here is ok. I figured he has a ton of air in his range after checking back this flop so I figured a stab OTT could get him to fold often enough.

River: Is this value bet just way too thin?


I have been messing around with pokerjuice a bit for this hand

Cbetting range OTF: J5+,(J,5,Q):8T+,Kdd+,KT9+
which is about 53% of villains preflop range (FI30%)

OTT: Calling range of (5,J,Q):A2+,dd,54+ (Only 33% of the hands he has, so this was a profitable stab OTT! Or is my calling range a little bit too narrow)

Now OTR first of all I looked at my, possibly, thin value bet:

Villain has a straight 28% of the time
I'm going to assume hes only going to call with J4 to 8 and Q4 to 8 the rest he folds
Now onto calculating the overall EV of the bet. This is where I'm not exactly sure how to calculate it

So 28% of the time he raises and we have to fold
EV=0,28*-0,18$=-0,0504$ (To calculate the EV of the bet do I have to take into account the money I already invested?)

4,5% of the time he calls and we win
EV=0,045*0,69$= 0,0311$

2,6% of the time he calls and we chop
EV= 0,026*0,35= 0,009$

11% of the time he calls and we lose
EV= 0,11*-0,18 = 0,020$

The other 53% of the time he folds
EV= 0,53*0,55= 0,292$

Overall EV of the bet 0,35$ or +17,5bb!

So (if I calculated the EV correctly) betting here hardly too thin!

When I played this hand I didnt even realise I had a 6 blocker (lmao monkey clicking buttons cant even read his own hand). Turns out this is quite important as it decreases the likelyhood of villain having a straight by 5%!

So the main reason why I made this post is to see if I made any mistakes in my hand review. I haven't ever gone this in depth before with a single hand so I had a hard time putting an unknown on a specific range. I also am not quite sure if this is how you would calculate the EV of a bet OTR.

Any feedback would be much appreciated!

Yeah the 6 and T blockers are good in this spot and I am almost always leading river for value, only exceptions being against players I expect to have like missed diamonds here or other players that I expect to bet when checked to on this river a lot.

Your math is wrong in quite a few places*. Turn continuing range is too narrow as well. But this is the right way to analyze a hand -- quantitatively!



*Don't have time to spend, but just one example:

You win 51 cents, not 69.

river value bet is slightly too thin

You have to compare the ev of betting to checking. If he's only calling with one worse hand then betting is clearly not going to be better than checking (without the need to do any maths) - Villain likely has to be calling with all 2 pair hands for value betting to be good.

Ok to start off with the bet OTT:

For this to be a profitable stab we need him to fold 56,7% of the time.
The new range I assigned to him is (5,J,Q):A2+,dd,45+,67+. Or 61,4% of his turn range.
However it's very possible villain is going to fold some of his pair+gutter combos.

(5,J,Q):T8+,dd,45+,67+ might be a better range. This is 54% of his turn range.

Which of these ranges is more close to reality, no idea.

Something to note though, against both of these ranges we have about 55% equity. Maybe the bet OTT was decent, as a semi value/protection bet, or is this really pushing it?

I think x/c OTT is definately a line that could be considered. I think I personally prefer betting over x/c.


EV of the river bet.

I always tought that once we put a bet out, we no longer count that money as part of our stack, but rather just more money in the pot. (for example when we bet out OTT it has to work 10/(10+13) x100% of the time). This is why I assumed we win 69, and not 51. Anyhow, taking Rei s correction into account here is(what I believe to be) the corrected EV of betting this river (with the new turn range, the 61% one).


32% of the time he raises and we have to fold
EV=-0,32*0,18$ = -0,0576$

2,5% of the time he calls and we win
EV=0,025*0,51$= 0,01275$

1,4% of the time he calls and we chop
EV= 0,014*0,26$= 0,00364$

6% of the time he calls and we lose
EV= -0,06*0,18$ = -0,0108$

58% of the time he folds
EV= 0,58*0,51= 0,2958$

Total EV = 0,24$ or 12bb


Checking the river.

Definately agree that we don't really have to do any simulations to figure out checking is probably better than value betting when we only get called by 1 worse hand. Also we beat 100% of villains air and 50-60% of villains checkback range (depending on what 2p he value bets OTR, if at all) and no better hands fold (debatable, but let's assume a readless 2PLO villain won't fold any better hands). So there really is no reason to bluff (which this bet essentially accomplishes).

I wanted to see how often villain has to bluff before we can call a river bet after we check. However I ran into a problem.

I tried starting off with simulating when villain only bets straights and Q8.

"EV Call : $0,24 ????
This made me very confused. How can calling be +EV? Villain literally only bets with better hands.. Am I misunderstanding how the bluff catching tool works?

Correction 43.3%*

Also found that the bluff catching module assumes villain bets all his air which would explain the EV.