2nd nut flush vs posible recreational - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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2nd nut flush vs posible recreational

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02-27-2016 , 06:51 PM

Mindead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,030

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25, $0.05 ante Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $33.81 (135.2 bb)
BB: $142.30 (569.2 bb)
UTG: $55.33 (221.3 bb)
MP: $68.52 (274.1 bb)
Hero (CO): $25.51 (102 bb)
BTN: $39.65 (158.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9

UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.40, 3 folds, MP calls $1.15

Flop: ($3.45) Q

(2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.45) 5

(2 players)
MP bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

River: ($6.95) 8

(2 players)
MP bets $3.25, Hero ?

Villain 43/9/400hands

I would never raise here against a regular, but against a player with this numbers likely to be recreational could we think about raise for value hoping to get calls with worse flushes? Or is it just too optimistic?

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02-27-2016 , 07:04 PM

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,158

The problem with raising to like $10 is if he jams with the 9 high flush or something, heh

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02-27-2016 , 07:05 PM

OmahaFanatical4

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5,123

That scenario seems unlikely. If we do raise we should fold to a reraise.

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02-27-2016 , 07:16 PM

F_Ivanovic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,658

Why wouldn't you raise against a reg?

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02-27-2016 , 08:32 PM

thsheriff

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 199

Jamming the 9 high flush seems pretty unlikely tbh. Raising against any aggro opponent, reg or otherwise, seems ok. Against an average opponent calling is the standard.

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02-28-2016 , 03:01 PM

Mindead

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,030

Quote:

Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic

Why wouldn't you raise against a reg?

I just see myself raising here against a reg with the nutfd and the naked ace, I didn't tought there was room to add value raises with Khigh and still balanced. I didn't the numbers but I will... or try it...

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02-28-2016 , 07:25 PM

Ollieeeee

adept

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 971

Yeah would be very weird if he showed up with 9 high flush here. I would be contacting PS personally.

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02-28-2016 , 09:33 PM

SuperMario7

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 630

Value raising is a very good play, you just need to be disciplined enough to fold if he comes over the top. I don't think anyone but very loose aggro tards (which is a very small % of overall player pool) will ever bluff raise you with a naked A. Not even sure any reg would do it at those stakes.

The problem is when you move up you will face villains who def will come over the top when they know you can't have the nuts. Vs those opponents you actually want to encourage them so value raising then calling it off is a very profitable play vs these types of players.

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02-28-2016 , 10:46 PM

OmahaFanatical4

banned

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 5,123

good players don't really try to make people fold near nut hands

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02-28-2016 , 11:50 PM

#10

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ollieeeee

Yeah would be very weird if he showed up with 9 high flush here. I would be contacting PS personally.

I'd just call because I'm a nit and we don't have the nuts when a seemingly passive player's betting into us and even these players can lay down "the 9-high flush".

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03-01-2016 , 05:02 PM

#11

pucmo

adept

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,187

I would raise a big fish for value. Not sure what the nit would be betting here as I don't play plo25 at stars, and barely elsewhere, but I would raise him with the ace blocker. This average more passive player is somewhere in between.

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03-01-2016 , 07:54 PM

#12

OmahaDonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 4,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperMario7

I don't think anyone but very loose aggro tards (which is a very small % of overall player pool) will ever bluff raise you with a naked A.

I would be surprised if this were true

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperMario7

The problem is when you move up you will face villains who def will come over the top when they know you can't have the nuts. Vs those opponents you actually want to encourage them so value raising then calling it off is a very profitable play vs these types of players.

Very optimistic given that when they have the ace and choose to play the hand it will not be dry that often.

Odds of a Axxx being dry:
39/51 * 38/50 * 37/49 = 44%

I dont' know how to break down what % of wet/dry aces are played (given a VPIP) but I'd guess this ratio is going to be very high and this raise/call on river will be very bad. Even against someone who will always keep raising with dry ace.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OmahaFanatical4

good players don't really try to make people fold near nut hands

When I bet with the dry ace and get raised by someone capable, I assume they're bluffing more often than value betting

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03-03-2016 , 05:09 PM

#13

Wealth$

adept

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 1,162

We should min-raise this on river and fold to re-raise right? This is a really good question BTW. 2nd nuts. Where do we draw the line between raising and only calling the river?

Q high flush and we should only be calling riv?

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03-03-2016 , 10:53 PM

#14

FrankyRizzo

adept

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 971

just flat and hope

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03-04-2016 , 12:18 AM

#15

ziggyzaooo

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,936

raise to 7$ fold to jam

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03-04-2016 , 04:21 AM

#16

naggeri

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 957

Hero raise 11.25 fishy villian snaps w any flush (limps and play w 40 vpip so if he has a flush that would be ~80% lower than 2nd nuts)

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03-04-2016 , 01:24 PM

#17

OmahaDonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 4,911

Quote:

Originally Posted by naggeri

Hero raise 11.25 fishy villian snaps w any flush (limps and play w 40 vpip so if he has a flush that would be ~80% lower than 2nd nuts)

He's probably passive and his flush draw was good enough to bet turn. If he has a flush it's going to be higher more often than his pf range suggests.

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03-04-2016 , 03:17 PM

#18

sauhund

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 5,936

Quote:

Originally Posted by F_Ivanovic

Why wouldn't you raise against a reg?

If i had smaller flush in villains spot and got raised, I would be often enough annoyed and tilted enough to shrug call it off.

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