BB is 36/3, 34% agg, 92 hands, $5.20 back after betting
Btn is 29/5, $9.30 stack
SB is 75/11, $35 stack
I cover

Just call. We don't want 2P to fold to a raise.

this, we can play fit or fold, dont think BB is ever bluffing into 3 players

We block most 2p. This is either AT or another set. I still don't know what to do here.

No you don't.

Also you have better equity against sets than against [KQ, KJ].

If you think the BB is leading [sets, AT] you are in great shape vs. his range specifically, at least. Blocking two pair is practically a non-factor, for at least two reasons.

I'm honestly not sure why the idea that it's possible to make correct and relevant statements about blockers without at least verifying them with PPT* has spread like wildfire in the poker community. I blame Phil Galfond.


*Except in the more obvious spots, like with nut flush blockers, a PP that reduces straight combos, etc.

Yeah, I've actually started to run out of gifs to show my confused disapproval concerning incorrect/out of scope statements as of late. Not a good sign/trend .

Easiest call ever imo

Well, verifying with PPT is not practical for in play analysis. I suggest counting two card combos.

16 combos of AT
16 combos of T9
3 combos of QQ
3 combos of JJ
3 combos of KQ
3 combos of KJ
9 combos of QJ

So there are 32 combos of straight, 6 combos of sets and 15 combos of two pairs. Most of the time, however, I won't expect villian to bet QJ here.

Vs a range of [AT, T9, set], we are in real bad shape when the money goes in. Vs [AT, set] is better, but we still do not have enough equity for raising.

This method certainly has flaws, as stuff like QQJx are double-counted, and there are more playable QQxx than T9xx. However it's probably good enough if you need to make your decision in 15 seconds.

dont know why this entire talk about blockers etc. started in this thread bc it doesnt really matter. You are certainly not folding top set here and you are also not raising bc you will a) get it in vs. straight which we are underdog against b) we give them the chance to fold out the hands we are crushing. easy call

You are not doing "in-play analysis" -- you are commenting on a forum thread.

I'm not sure what "real bad shape" was supposed to mean, but . . .



(Adjusting the preflop widths, to say, 8-25%, doesn't meaningfully change the equity figures.)

This is what happens when you make claims without checking them (or without having done related analysis in the past).

Its chief flaw is that it's nonsense.

It's going to hurt your ability to make good decisions in short windows of time.

If you have ~15 seconds to act, you should not be focusing on stuff like this.

Call. If anyone shoves behind you also call.

Just call.

I gotta admit spot is kinda annoying though. Its like initial villain is betting ~$10 into a ~$3 pot because we almost always expect to see an instant allin on the turn no matter what comes. So we need at least 40% something equity and I think JJ, QQ, and two pair (lol) are pretty heavily discounted here since mid-stackers generally don't just pot out those types of hands into multiple players. So we should be right around the equity range we need to call. The other players in the hand make things weird, especially the SB. Him shoving on us makes it an awkward call. But I guess I don't really hate giving players behind a chance (small one) at making some nonsensical shove, and being up against two players both with AT isn't such a bad thing.

Really I don't worry too much about spots like this. If folding is correct its almost never going to be by any significant amount.

Misc MATH (draw your own conclusions):

1. It looks like if we call knowing we are up against precisely [ATxx] (BB) and [ATxx] (SB) that will shove, with the BTN folding, we lose roughly $3.53. So that means getting it in after we call and the SB re-pots, if he does so with face-up ATxx, is a -$0.13 mistake. (Both #s should be slightly lower due to rake.) I hope I did the sidepot math correctly!

2. The BTN coming along in any capacity, or any silliness on the part of the SB, improves our EV, of course.

3. Unsurprisingly, the times when the SB ends up re-potting, it is advantageous for the BB to be never leading anything but straights. We end up doing worse in the main pot when the BB leads a wider range.

4. The SB's preflop range should be roughly 12-16% or so ATxx on this flop. If he has a leading range, or if he slowplays anything, we'll face a re-pot less often than that.

5. So EV_call the times the SB doesn't re-pot needs to be a bit less than +2 bb or so, assuming the GII/fold decision vs. a re-pot presents no option that is better than ~0 EV.

I agree with this.

This is one of the reasons alluded to here, if anyone was wondering:

So Rey you are calling and if anyone shoves and the original flop bettor calls, are you keeping on calling?

That's what I would do.