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10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD 10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD

08-21-2014 , 05:00 PM
This seems like a really obvious spot to me but I keep questioning it for some reason. There is literally no reason to do anything else but shove this flop now, right? I think I'm just being results oriented and I have to imagine with only 40bb's pre, SB is potting this flop with any piece of it he has... even if it is into two people that cover him. But it seems like such a -EV play from his point of view. Like, I don't see how it is +EV for him to pot this flop with worse than two pair here. My hand is 30-35% equity against his sets, straight, overpair + FD, and some combo draws. Against a pair + FD I'm still only nearing 40%. How light do we think he is potting this flop given two people are in the pot who will more than likely put his whole stack in when they have part of this board?

Also some questions in "what if" scenarios:
  1. If BB calls, we just flat behind him, right?
  2. If BB repots, are we going to have to fold?

    Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.11 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #29839211

    SB: $4.51 (41 bb)
    BB: $13.14 (119.5 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $15.63 (142.1 bb)
    MP: $9.48 (86.2 bb)
    CO: $11.17 (101.5 bb)
    BTN: $19.71 (179.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 T 8 T
    Hero calls $0.11, MP calls $0.11, CO folds, BTN calls $0.11, SB calls $0.05, BB raises to $0.64, Hero calls $0.53, 2 folds, SB calls $0.53

    Flop: ($2.13) 7 8 4 (3 players)
    SB bets $0.93, BB folds, Hero raises to $4.85, SB calls $2.94

    Turn: ($9.87) 4 (2 players)
    River: ($9.87) 6 (2 players)

    Spoiler:
    Results: $9.87 pot ($0.26 rake)
    Final Board: 7 8 4 4 6
    SB showed 6 5 K J and lost (-$4.50 net)
    BB mucked and lost (-$0.64 net)
    Hero showed 9 T 8 T and won $9.61 ($5.10 net)



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    10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD Quote
    08-21-2014 , 07:31 PM
    With that stack size if u call or fold on the flop its a big mistake.

    Dont limp man, just dont! If u wanna play smaller pots just min raise.
    10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD Quote
    08-21-2014 , 07:49 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mecantplay
    With that stack size if u call or fold on the flop its a big mistake.

    Dont limp man, just dont! If u wanna play smaller pots just min raise.
    Yeah I thought so. I was just psyching myself out I guess.

    And I rarely limp, esp UTG but I'm against weak players who 3bet a ton and I felt like if I was going to play this hand UTG that I should be limping it rather than opening it if there is a good chance it will get 3bet since it isn't that strong of a hand from my position. Not something I do much.
    10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD Quote
    08-22-2014 , 11:19 AM
    raise or fold pre. can probs just about gii with an spr of 1.4ish. defo fold vs bb jam. flat after bb flat.
    10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD Quote
    08-22-2014 , 04:57 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mutilation
    Yeah I thought so. I was just psyching myself out I guess.

    I'm against weak players who 3bet a ton
    dont sound that weak to me, getting 3b a tonne is annoying as **** and would prefer my table to full of weak non 3bing players

    this is not a hand to limp UTG with, in fact I have a zero limp range, but if i had it would be nutty A high FD type hands like Ad8d54 or weak KKxx, so we can nut over 2nd nut them, but still raising is the way fwd
    10PLO Simple Spot with TP+OESD Quote

          
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