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Red line in small stakes matter? Red line in small stakes matter?

05-04-2017 , 05:38 PM
I've been winning at plo10, but my red line is pretty bad.

I know I obviously have tons of leaks, could bluff more/better, maybe 3bet + cbet more. But I'm still having 7~10bb/100 winrate.

So I question, does it REALLY matter in nano stakes/small stakes where people call super light?

Or should I focus on getting better post flop situations at plo10 and later on, maybe plo25 or plo50 focus on having better red line?
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-04-2017 , 05:49 PM
7-10evbb/100? Over what sample
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-04-2017 , 07:55 PM
Does it really matter? I think it was around 20k hands., maybe more,maybe less
Can't open my pt4 this month to check stats, i've decided to play this month without checking session results or how im doing overall.
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-04-2017 , 08:11 PM
20k hands is not a sample you can say anything meaningful about. Stop worrying about your red line there are other things you should prob worry more about
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-04-2017 , 11:27 PM
only green line matters, if you are winning at a decent amount obviously you are doing something right (or heater obv if small sample size)
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 01:34 AM
There's only one line that matters.

Spoiler:
That is the red line.
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 04:33 AM
Red line is idiotic. Order is following. Orange>blue>red>green
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 04:42 AM
Given your sample, your true winrate is somewhere between -14.21 bb/100 and 28.21 bb/100 (http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/)

€: imo, red line doesn't really matter, work on your game, no matter how your lines look.
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 04:51 AM
Yeah it's nothing to pay too much attention to, it varies from stakes and as long as green line is going up, it's all good.
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 07:10 AM
Yah just keep studying & playing, 20k hands is nothing and you can't draw anything reliable from it
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 07:42 AM
What sample would be enough? 100k?
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 08:05 AM
I've had 100k hand streaks where I look like a 15bb/100 crusher, and I'm far from that

Last edited by z0mgtiltz; 05-05-2017 at 08:10 AM. Reason: But it is probably enough to tell that you're a winner or not
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 08:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gallagher99
What sample would be enough? 100k?
300k at the very least. 500k you start to know more. Thing is, it might take you such a long time to get that sample size, that your relative skill to the games you play have changed.

In PLO you never really know your winrate. You just dont. You will have an idea if you are winning or losing, but estimating your wr within a couple of bb/100 is just not happening. Deal with it
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 09:23 AM
As an example: Last month I played 40k hands in total. I were -3bb/100EV over the first 20k hands. The last 20k hands I won 16bb/100 EV. Samplesize matters.
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-05-2017 , 12:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oink
300k at the very least. 500k you start to know more. Thing is, it might take you such a long time to get that sample size, that your relative skill to the games you play have changed.

In PLO you never really know your winrate. You just dont. You will have an idea if you are winning or losing, but estimating your wr within a couple of bb/100 is just not happening. Deal with it
This, the only way to gauge your actual winrate properly would be to find out how much you are winning or losing with each hand in the environment you are playing (I don't mean going in to HEM and pulling a stat from there) and multiply by the frequency you are dealt each holding. If you had this information you would know your raw expectation over a subset of n unknown hands dealt preflop. When you are dealt 4 cards face down your expected winrate for being dealt in would be your aggregate winrate of all preflop holdings from that position, if your position is unknown as well than it would be an aggregate of your winrate across all positions. If you sum everything and you are a .1bb per hand winner, you would be winning at 10bb/100 in actuality. It wouldn't ever matter what your AIEV line says your "expected" winrate is, if over 50K hands and win 46bi, but your EV was only at 40bi, you actually ran 4bis below your expected 50bi, not 6 buyins above EV for that 50K hand sample.

Redline does not matter, you want to focus on playing in a manner that wins you the most amount of real money possible.
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote
05-06-2017 , 12:01 PM
I love you all
Red line in small stakes matter? Quote

      
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