Quote:
Originally Posted by Oink
300k at the very least. 500k you start to know more. Thing is, it might take you such a long time to get that sample size, that your relative skill to the games you play have changed.
In PLO you never really know your winrate. You just dont. You will have an idea if you are winning or losing, but estimating your wr within a couple of bb/100 is just not happening. Deal with it
This, the only way to gauge your actual winrate properly would be to find out how much you are winning or losing with each hand in the environment you are playing (I don't mean going in to HEM and pulling a stat from there) and multiply by the frequency you are dealt each holding. If you had this information you would know your raw expectation over a subset of n unknown hands dealt preflop. When you are dealt 4 cards face down your expected winrate for being dealt in would be your aggregate winrate of all preflop holdings from that position, if your position is unknown as well than it would be an aggregate of your winrate across all positions. If you sum everything and you are a .1bb per hand winner, you would be winning at 10bb/100 in actuality. It wouldn't ever matter what your AIEV line says your "expected" winrate is, if over 50K hands and win 46bi, but your EV was only at 40bi, you actually ran 4bis below your expected 50bi, not 6 buyins above EV for that 50K hand sample.
Redline does not matter, you want to focus on playing in a manner that wins you the most amount of real money possible.