Villain is 42/25 over <50 hands.
Trying to get some stuff down playing 3b pots oop as they're def one of the toughest parts of omaha.
Once he flats the flop he can have Ax, straight draws & flush draws himself.
I size it to set up a jam on the turn.
My main question is what to do on blank turns, I'm assuming he doesn't have a tonne of gut shots in his range so count 456789 & basically 2/3 as well as blanks.
Set me straight if I'm wrong here but I think a good chunk of his flop peeling range is Ax, the weaker ones he'll fold ott when he doesn't hit 2p. And AJ/AK he'll prolly stick it in with. If he calls with a draw that's fine by us cause then we have the best hand.
I dunno how many draws he continues with but it's def safe to say he'll fold some of them at least.
Stove after the hand:
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Powered By Holdem Manager
- The Ultimate Poker Software
Hero (SB): $10 (100 bb)
BB: $10.96 (109.6 bb)
UTG: $19.57 (195.7 bb)
MP: $8.57 (85.7 bb)
CO: $6.32 (63.2 bb)
BTN: $11.65 (116.5 bb)
: Hero is SB with 9
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, BTN raises to $0.40
, Hero raises to $1.40
, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.00
: ($3) 4
Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80
, BTN calls $1.80
: ($6.60) 7 (2 players)
Not sure how accurate this stove is, not sure how to use weights either, so could be way off, but this is his get it in range:
|Hand ||Pot equity ||Wins ||Ties |
|A7, AKT, AJT, A4, KhTh, Ah3h, AJ, AK||75.16% ||740,732||20|
I'm getting 33% from the pot on the turn jam, so he'd need to fold just less than 1/10 for us to be marginally +EV if my stove is close to correct.
Given his range I'd say he could fold 1/5 times & that's a conservative estimate I think. Like the bad fd's, pear+sd that he peeled & bad Ax too. Thoughts?
Thanks to all who reply.