BB's ftcb=100% in 3b pots is making me lose confidence, I'm putting BB on 2p/sets/wraps/NFD. Then my sim tells that the shove is a bit worse than breakeven as our EV is (0.316*$111.3+0.425*$66.62)-$65.41=($35.17+$28.31)-$65.41=-$1.93.
Simulated 100000 Omaha Hands (Monte Carlo)
Simulation by
Slice - The ev++ Equity Calculator
Board :: Jc3c6d
Code:
Pot 1:
Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Range
1 31.6 30.7 1.9 Jd3d8h4h
2 47.1 46.1 2.0 (J6,J3,63,JJ,66,33,754,542,Ac*c)&26%
3 21.3 20.9 0.9 (J,AA-QQ,63,66,33,54,*c*c)&20%
Pot 2:
Player Equity Win Hi Tie Hi Range
1 42.5 41.4 2.2 Jd3d8h4h
2 57.5 56.4 2.2 (J6,J3,63,JJ,66,33,754,542,Ac*c)&26%
3 0.0 0.0 0.0 (J,AA-QQ,63,66,33,54,*c*c)&20%
Intuitively, I'm prone to just fold in marginal spots like this and see their hands without swinging variance - we've got only 58-76 hands on them and solid reads are yet to be made. That's especially true if your gf sweats you
Btw there's a
scary thread on what happens if you tell your gf about swings. I like Doyle Brunson's advice to pay fixed amounts to her regardless of them. (I'm worried because she makes you post 5 hands in a row, which may harm your forum reputation.)
Edit: if we assume that SB cbet/calls with bare 6's and 3's too, it doesn't change our equities.