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1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? 1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet?

10-24-2014 , 07:35 AM
$250 effective

HJ limps, Hero calls in CO with KQJ2, both blinds call.

Flop ($12): Q93
Loose but competent BB (seems to be a reg FWIW) bets $12, Hero calls

Turn ($36): 8
BB bets $25, Hero calls

River ($86): J
BB checks.

Seems unlikely that BB would check a straight here. Could be a set trying to get to SD. Do I have enough to SD or should I turn my hand into a bluff and try to rep the straight? Hero has a tight image so a bet would look pretty credible...
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote
10-24-2014 , 09:15 AM
check
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote
10-24-2014 , 11:23 AM
Check no value in betting worse 2pair folds and only hands that beat you will call or raise
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote
10-24-2014 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spennyn
Check no value in betting worse 2pair folds and only hands that beat you will call or raise
Well let's say you were BB and double barreled with a flopped set or a hand like KQ88 for TP and a turned set.

Turn completes a JT and river completes more straight draws. Would this be a standard c/c for you?

I imagine this wouldn't be an easy call as "Hero" likely wouldn't bet worse and would only bet a straight right?
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote
10-24-2014 , 06:23 PM
most obv str8 gets there on turn, most people would check with 2 pair/sets for pot control unless they hit NFD on turn - so he most likely has J10, and is worried about getting raised on river
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote
10-25-2014 , 07:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DTLB
Well let's say you were BB and double barreled with a flopped set or a hand like KQ88 for TP and a turned set.

Turn completes a JT and river completes more straight draws. Would this be a standard c/c for you?

I imagine this wouldn't be an easy call as "Hero" likely wouldn't bet worse and would only bet a straight right?
true, but i´d also imagine enough players would play Tx like that, and enough live fish might sigh call anyway with sets regardless of board run out and your image.

obv not quantifyable, but imho above happens often enough that turning a still quite showdownable hand into a bluff in this spot has to be -ev, comparing the times he calls TX or sets combined with those times you had the best hand anyway and he folds compared to the rare times you get him to fold a better hand.

one thing that is quantifyable is how often your bluff has to work to be profitable.figuere that out, and also keep in mind that you have blockers for sets and even KT which makes him having a naked non nut str8 he´s never folding more likely in this very spot
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote
10-25-2014 , 05:03 PM
^ Good answer. Thanks!
1/3 Live - Top two OTR. Check or bet? Quote

      
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