https://www.pokerstars.com/en/blog/t...a-155038.shtml

Hey guys,

Just wondering what you think about the laydown of Panka 3-handed.
I think in the long term it isn't profitable to lay down 10's there.
Ok, the guy on his left was playing tight but still, in the long run I guess its a 5-bet all in, your toughts?

in the article he says he had picked up on some of his tells so i think its irrelevant whether or not its profitable in the long run or not because he knew what do do at the very moment and thats what counts

just my opinion.

Oh, oke, didnt red that article, makes sense yeah

Would have been more impressive if he had given the speech from Rounders before mentioning Oreo cookies and folding his tens face up.

This is not a long term situation , its a FT of an EPT.

Yeah but my toughts were: IF he 3bets there with 10's with 29 bb's, can you lay it down 3-handed when you 3bet a "wide-opener" on the button?

I that particularly relevant? I mean I'm not trying to say that it affects nothing but a +/- ev play will be a +/- ev play right?

I'm always confused when people make a distinction between long term and short term plays?

Play poker a little longer, and maybe one day , after enduring variance and undestanding how ****ed up it can be, you will have the chance to be in a situation where you can turn it all around on a few decisions.

If you can t picture this, then try picturing playing for your wife life or zny loved ones, you loose she die, you win she get to live. Would you understand the disctinction better?

This makes little sense to me. So you are in a spot on an FT and want to win. We want to make =ev decisions to do this. Now a spot occurs, take this spot with TT as an example. If, given the information that we have, laying it down is the best play then won't this always be the case? If laying it down is -ev long term then that must be because each time we are doing it we are making a -ev play and hence in the short term it is also -ev?

Not all inputs in poker are mathematical. If, as he said, Dominik had a read from a physical tell that (correctly!) induced him to lay down the hand, then this is information no mathematical model can really account for, yet it clearly has an influence on the ev of his decision.

In other words, live poker =/= theoretically perfect poker. And Pańka is a beast.

Yes so given this information every time in this spot this is a fold. So it's a fold short and long term.

Unless by long term people mean against any opponent without any reads and non-situation dependent.

Why is this -ev in the long run without a tell? What is he four-betting from the BB that 10 10 is beating? He might have AK or AQs, but he's also pretty likely to have JJs+. I think Panka was right, he could find a better spot to get it in.

no you are not understanding it at all, its a short turn +EV fold, but a long term -EV fold. These folds are very situational about how and when we wanna get the money and that depends on how +EV they are

Just wondering, I dont say this is -ev . Just analysing the hand sir...
Starting 30 bigs with 10's 3-handed and on the button someone with a wide range there. So just wondering what everyone's toughts are about this hand

Lol. That's an adorable 4bet range you constructed there.

he definitely could have JJ there, ya theres alot in the middle but if we think we have an edge then we dont really want to be flipping and we def dont want to be behind

Please explain how the fold in this spot is +EV short term but -EV long term, thank you.

maybe he wants to indicate the read of Panka? Dunno...

There is no "long term" when you know the hole card (physical tell).

You think your wife dying if you lose makes it right to play some strategy other than the best one?

Maybe he's married to my first wife...

, funny

To me, it makes no sense to distinguish between long term and short term here.
Your goal is to always make the most +EV decisions, based on all the information you have. So in the seemingly same spot you might make two different decisions based on how much you know about your opponent.
And the source of that knowledge doesn't matter as well - it can be betting pattern, betsizing, live tell, timing tell, or you could just peek at their cards. You make adjustments based on that info, and incorporate it into the math to make the most profitable play. That's what poker is all about.
Pańka just happened to have more information than you usually do, especially when playing online, but that doesn't mean his fold was "not mathematical" or something like that.