The fact is, it was folded to Barry after Dwan bet into two people who were repping trips+ and an overpair. This dramatically increases the strength of Dwan's repped hand, making it a pretty standard fold. Dwan has to be pretty sure Eastgate will lay down trips here for this to be a bluff. . . .

Take Eastgate out of the picture, and this is a much easier -- but still difficult -- call.

Furthermore, it's quite likely Barry 3bets the flop to 100k if Eastgate doesn't call.

Barry says he started the session knowing he might have to stick it in vs. Dwan in a marginal spot. I can't think why we would have any reason to doubt that's the case. Barry's certainly not afraid of the money, and Dwan came into the match with a reputation for extreme aggression and for pushing hard in marginal spots.

It was folded to him on the turn, not the flop, which is where he said he would go broke. Wtf?

Didn't anyone hear the bet after the hand, Durrr lost a $2000 bet that he had the 2nd best hand.

great hand.. haven't listened to barry yet (I will later today) or read any analysis on the hand.

I don't know how to say this without making it look like I'm minimizing what dwan did, but... the hand did kind of play itself once he decided to raise and not fold on the flop. he can't call flop with horrible relative position, so he chose to raise vs. fold. it makes no sense to shutdown on the turn after you pulled that move in a family pot.

I thought that he bet on Peter having the best hand?

I just listened to Barry's pod cast and I was wrong Durrr did put him on a big pair. So it was a great move by Durrrr.

If it was folded to him why 3 bet it? That's a situation where only a deuce is calling, the better play is to call and hope Durrrr continues on the turn.

Saying this implies Dwan is not capable of coming back over the top.

You're also implying that Barry couldn't make a 3bet with AK, trying to push Tom off a QT-type hand, or be inducing a bluff shove with an overpair.

It all becomes a big leveling war. . . Dwan knows Barry is solid, so he can't possibly call a shove with just an overpair, right? In the meantime, Barry knows that Tom is LAG, and that Tom's image of him is probably tight, so Tom doesn't necessarily need to have the nuts to put chips in the pot. Meanwhile, Tom knows that Barry knows that Tom thinks Barry is solid. Yada yada yada.

I thought he meant he would be willing to go broke on the turn IF it folded to him on the flop.

I think the point is that, without Eastgate in the hand, Dwan gives Barry a lot of chips.

Doyle said something similar when facing Eli's bluffs vs. his KK. . . . If a LAG player flops trips, they can win a lot of money from these guys in a HU pot. Thing is, it's hard to flop trips.

I don't think anything I said contradicts this.

I still think Dwan's flop raise is FPS against a tight UTG raiser and so many opponents. However if it works at isolating a deep QQ-AA, and he does it with the right balance of Tx and TT hands, it could be very +EV.

I have no way of knowing how he mixes his bluffs and monsters though. He certainly shouldn't do it with any Tx.

IMO

After geting called by the whole table, check fold if at least 2 players shows interest

Check ****ing fold your one pair

so is the flop bet bad or not?

I agree completely.

Except if the flop action is a small bet and a call from a loose player like Eli, then I think Barry could call and reevaluate turn. The only action he can beat is weak action from QT and 88, or something like that.

If Barry had moved in on the turn, I wonder how many people in this thread (and the other ones) would have evaluated durrr's play the same way. I'm guessing about 10%.

I like a flop lead from Barry. . . but my image is generally that I can't be bullied off an overpair, so it usually doesn't hurt me to rep AA.

There's a difference between telling the table you have an over pair and

a) I'm scared that you've got me beat

vs.

b) aces are the nuts, so bluff me at your own risk.

If you find yourself getting bluffed off your over pairs a lot, you have an image problem.

I can understand people criticizing Barry's flop play, but I don't understand how you can criticize his fold on the turn. Especially since after Eastgate folds, Barry is so likely to deduce that Easgate can't have 2X which makes it more likely that Dwan is the one who has it in this hand.

Well, I think a lot of the detail gets fleshed out after the hand. They aren't consciously thinking that much otherwise every decision would be a very long tank. I'm sure all of the hand combos and ranges get into their mind nearly instantly though, and things like blockers tweak their decision.

Like I said, the turn bet in itself wasn't that fantastic. Once you raise flop with QT after a guy blatantly reps JJ+ and you have 6 players behind, you aren't raising for value. You have to continue on the turn. Raising flop and checking turn is horrible. The real decision for Dwan was whether to fold or raise flop. He raised because he probably felt he could take it away in position from Barry later.

So it worked out great that he also got Eastgate to release, and it's a great hand to discuss for the 3-way theory... But he had to bet turn.

I think it was part of Dawn's strategy to pull of a big bluff early on to create an image for the rest of season 5. After this hand players will estimate there is at least a 30% chance dwan has complete air no matter how strong he plays a hand, and give him action throughout the whole season, and that's exactly what he wants. If you pay attention he mumbles every hand how he could have won this hand, could have won that... All of that is done for a reason, he wants people to think he is a bully and pay him off on his big hands.

Exactly. Dwan knew Barry was the least likely person to have a 2, so if no one else had one he could take the pot.

Where he got lucky is when Peter announced having a 2 with his call, Barry made a terrible call behind him.

Without that bad call putting the best hand in the middle, Dwan can't make that squeeze play on the turn.

For one thing, the pot would be smaller making the huge bet reek of bluff. Dwan would have had to make a "value" bet and then fire the big bullet on the river.

But at that point nothing short of "all-in" would have shaken Peter off the pot (assuming a brick) and I doubt even Durrr could pull the trigger on that one.

Why Barry is beating himself up for not winning a pot when he didn't have the best hand is what I don't get. He made a 27K mistake not the 230K mistake he is regretting.

I put you in the 10% then. I agree it wasn't a great play by Dwan, but one that he was more or less forced into on the turn. A desperation play that with a bit of luck ended up working.

Except this happened on the final day of taping.

So episode 2 was final day of taping? That's weird.

Yes, so was episode one.