Is there anyone out there willing to look at the entire database of televised hands on the show and calculate everyone's All in EV compared to the actual result? I'm making a prop bet with someone that I've run a significant amount below expected value.

I'll ship $100 to your PokerStars account if you can do that and post it in this thread. I'm mainly concerned with my All in EV, so you don't have to do everyone's, but I think that would be an interesting stat nonetheless... This brings back memories of the first two seasons for me. A couple hands pop out:

Me: K-9 clubs
BarryG: Ac Js
Flop 3 clubs 200k

Me: 33
Sammy: Kh Qd
Flop J83 all diamonds

Me: K9
Sammy 4d 5d
Flop 10-J-Q two diamonds

HAHA so many awesome memories!!! :-)

Oh, and I guess we can't forget the 500k pot I ran twice with Matusow:

Me 10-10
Mike Ac Kc
Flop 3 small cards two clubs :-)

BBV is that way ---------->

Daniel,

Don't forget the pot vs. Eli last year, KQs vs. 87s, ran it twice and watched Eli make a straight on both runs (including the one where you made top two).

100k pot.

I fail

I'd be happy to do it since I have all the hands written down as part of the HSP Database effort posted in this forum. Not sure how long it will take since you (Daniel) were all in so often.

I quickly went through all your AI hands from season 5:

pot size DN equity

DN hand v villain hand street/board

villain

result

season-episode



1)
235,800 48%

AQ v 66 preflop

Eli Elezra

win

5-02


2)
416,200 0%

JJ v 44 on 2474 board

David Benyamine

lose

5-03


3)
487,700 33%

T9cc v AA on Q24cc board

lose

Eli Elezra

5-05


4)
229,900 50%

75ss v 75dd on 4s3dAc board

tie

Ilari Sahamies

5-06


5)
232,500 5%

KQ v J6 on Q636 board

lose

Ilari Sahamies

5-06



Hope this helps for starters..

I am doing it.
Results in a few hours.

I dont remember you being all in on this one? thought you made a sick fold on the river.

You are prob about expectation on the all ins but there were a lot of hands where you were well ahead but either not hitting or being sucked out on without being all in if that makes sense

And the graph doesn't even show Gus hitting his 1 out for quads, and obviously a lot of money's getting in either way.

Season 1

Hand 5
Farha raises to 3,000 with Kh Qd, Buss calls with 4c 4h, Negreanu calls 2,700 in SB with 3s 3c, Greenstein calls 2,600 in BB with Qs 10s.
Flop: 3d Ad 6d
Negreanu and Greenstein check, Farha bets 17,000, Buss folds,
Negreanu re-raises ALL IN, Farha calls 41,000 and is ALL IN
Board ($128,800): 2s 4d
Farha wins with flush.

Brunson, Harman, Elezra, Sheikhan: -100
Greenstein, Buss: - 3,100
Negreanu: -61,100
Farha: +64,600

EQ: +92K$
Hand EV:-92K$
EV= -92K$

/*-/*-/-*/-*

Hand 10
Elezra calls 600 with 6c 8c, Farha raises to 2,600 with Ks Jh, Sheikhan folds SB, Negreanu calls 2,000 from BB with Ad 10h.
Flop: 6s 10s 8h ($8,800)
Negreanu bets 5,000,
Elezra raises to 15,000, Farha folds,
Negreanu re-raises ALL IN, Elezra calls 86,000 and is ALL IN
Board: 2s 4h.
Elezra wins the pot with two pair.



EQ: +55K$
EV hand:-55K$
EV: -147K$

/*-/-*/-*/*-/-*

Season 1
Hand 4
Negreanu raises to 2,200 with Kc 9c,
Greenstein re-raises to 10,000 with Ac Jh, Brunson and Harman fold the blinds, Negreanu calls 7,800.
Flop: 3c 7c 2c ($21,600)
Negreanu checks, Greenstein bets 10,000,
Negreanu re-raises ALL IN to 91,100, Greenstein calls 81,100 more.
Board: 7h Jc ($203,800)
Greenstein wins with nut flush.

EV hand: -144K$$
EV total: -291K$

/-*/*-/-*/*-

(UTG)Stupak Folds -100 (bought in for 100k)
(UTG+1)DeeB FOlds -100
(MP1)Nasseri Folds -100
(CO)Chan (KdTD) Raises to 3500--folds -3600
(BTN)Negreanu (9cTc) Calls 3500 calls 15000 | Net -93,700
(Shieky) Leaves table Mimi Tran inbound
(SB)T.Brunson Folds -400
(BB)Farha (AdJd) Raises to 18500 |Net +98000

FLOP: (POT 41,500)

AcThJh

Farha bets 20K
DN Calls 20k

Turn: (Pot 81,500)
6c

Farha All in (55,100)
DN calls (55,100)

Farha wins pot (191,700)

EQ: +42K$
EV hand:-42K$
EV: -333K$

Season 1
Hand 4
Farha posts a 1,200 straddle.
Nasseri raises to 6,000 with 8h 3h, Negreanu calls from button with Ks 9s,
Elezra and Brunson fold blinds, Farha calls 4,800 more from straddle with 7d 5d.
Flop: Jd 10d Qs ($19,700)
Farha and Nasseri check, Negreanu bets 6,000,
Farha raises to 26,000, Nasseri folds,
Negreanu re-raises ALL IN to 93,300, Farha calls 67,300 and is ALL IN.
Board: 4d As
Farha wins with a flush.

EQ : 63% of 213K$
EV hand: -79K$
EV total: -412K$

/-*/-*/-*/-*/*-
Season 1
Hand 10

Negreanu straddles 1,200
Esfandiari folds
Deeb (As Ac) calls 1,200
Doyle folds
Elezra folds
(D) Greenstein (Ts Td) calls 1,200
(SB) Hellmuth folds (his cards are exposed when he mucks)
(BB) Sheiky folds
Negreanu (Kh Js) raises to 10,000
Deeb reraises to 35,000
Greenstein folds
Negreanu calls 25,000

Flop: Jc Th 9c
Negreanu checks (dark)
Deeb bets all-in 83,000
Negreanu calls 83,000

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: Ah
River1: 7s
------
Turn2: 3d
River2: Kd

(Greenstein tells Deeb that Negreanu's raise cost him a lot of money since Barry would have flopped a set and Deeb would have turned three aces)


EQ: 70K$ ( DN won 118K$ so +48K$)
EVhand +48K$
EV: -364K$

/*-/-*/-*/*-/*-/

Season 1
Hand 2

(Esfandiari away)

Doyle (Ac Ah) raises to 3,000
Elezra folds
Greenstein folds
Hellmuth folds
(D) Sheiky folds
(SB) Negreanu (8s 8h) calls 2,700
(BB) Deeb folds

Flop: Ks 8c 3c
Negreanu checks (dark)
Doyle bets 7,000
Negreanu raises to 27,000
Doyle reraises all-in to 172,700
Negreanu calls 145,700

Turn: 6h
River: 2d


EQ: 91% of 350K$
EV hand:+30K$
EV total -334K$

/*-/-*/-*/-

Season 1
Hand 5

Harman folds
Greenstein folds
Hellmuth (Ad 2s) raises to 3,200
Chan folds
Negreanu (Kd Td) calls 3,200
(D) Esfandiari (Jd Jc) reraises to 12,000
(SB) Buss folds
(BB) ToddB folds
Hellmuth folds
Negreanu calls 8,800

Flop: Qs Tc 6s
Negreanu checks (dark)
Esfandiari bets 15,000
Negreanu raises all-in to 650,000
Esfandiari calls all-in 57,500
(before Esfandiari calls, he and Daniel have lengthy discussion about their hands; after the hand was over Esfandiari says that Daniel gave his hand away)

Turn: 2d
River: Kh



EQ: 11% of 171K$
EV hand: +152K$
EV total:-182K$

/-*/-*/*-/-*/-*/-*/*-/

Season 2
Hand 7

ToddB folds
Esfandiari folds
Ly (Ah 5c) raises to 1,500
Farha (Td 9s) calls 1,500
Negreanu (Qd Th) calls 1,500
(D) Harman folds
(SB) Chamanara (6s 5s) calls 1,200
(BB) Matasow folds

Flop: Jd Ts 4s
Chamanara checks
Ly checks
Farha checks
Negreanu checks

Turn: 2c
Chamanara bets 3,000
Ly folds
Farha calls 3,000
Negreanu raises to 12,000
Chamanara calls 9,000
Farha reraises all-in to 33,300
Negreanu re-reraises to 54,600
Chamanara folds
(Negreanu takes back 21,300)

River: 6d


EQ 93.6% of 82K
Ev hand: +5K$
Ev total: -177K$

/-*/*-/-*/*-

Season 2
Hand 9

(Harman away)

Matasow (Kd Jh) calls 600
ToddB (Ac Kc) calls 600
(D) Ly (Tc 6c) calls 600
(SB) Negreanu (As Qd) raises to 5,500
(BB) Esfandiari folds
Matasow folds
ToddB reraises to 26,100
Ly folds
Negreanu calls 20,600

Flop: Qc 4d 2s
Negreanu checks (dark)
ToddB bets all-in 95,800
Negreanu calls 95,800

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 2c
River1: 6s
------
Turn2: Th
River2: 3s


EQ: 81% of 192K$
Ev hand :+36K$
EV total: -141K$

/-*/-*/-*/-

Season 2
Hand 7

(Doyle returns and posts 900 to be dealt in; Forrest away)

Lindgren folds
Greenstein folds
Juanda folds
Doyle (6c 3s) checks
(D) Elezra (Ks Qd) raises to 4,900
(SB) Grey folds
(BB) Negreanu (Qs Th) calls 4,300
Doyle folds

Flop: Kd Jc 8s
Negreanu checks (dark)
Elezra bets 15,000
Negreanu raises all-in to 54,200
Elezra calls 39,200

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 9h
River1: 5s
------
Turn2: 8d
River2: Ah

Lindgren -100
Greenstein -100
Juanda -100
Grey -400
Doyle -1,000
Elezra -59,200
Negreanu +60,900

EQ:32% of 120K$
Ev hand:+81K$
EV total: -60K$

/-*/-*/-*Hand 5

Season 2
Juanda folds
Laak folds
Elezra (Qs Jh) raises to 2,400
Grey folds
Forrest (9d 7d) calls 2,400
(D) Negreanu (Jd Jc) reraises to 12,000
(SB) Lindgren folds
(BB) Greenstein (As Ah) re-reraises to 79,500
Elezra folds (Qs is exposed when he mucks)
Forrest folds
Negreanu calls 67,500

Flop: Qc 6d 6h
Turn: 5s
River: 4h


EQ: 20% of 170K$
EV hand : -34K$
Ev total: -94K$

/-*/*-/-*/*-/-

/-*/*-/-*/-*/*-/*-/*-

Season 4
Harman straddles 1,200
Farha (As Qs) raises to 5,000
Baxter (5h 4h) calls 5,000
Gold (3s 2c) calls 5,000
(D) Safai (Kh Jc) reraises all-in to 49,900
(SB) Elezra folds
(BB) Negreanu (Ad Kd) calls 49,300
Harman folds
Farha folds
Baxter folds
Gold folds (and shows his hand)

(Players agree to run it twice)

Flop1: Th 2d 2s
Turn1: Qc (Farha announces he folded As Qs)
River1: Ah
------
Flop2: 9d 6h 2h
Turn2: 8c
River2: 6d



EQ: 85K$ ( tied so EV for this hand is -35K$)
EV hand:-35K$
EV: -123K$

/-*/-*/-*/-*/-*/-*/*-

Season 4
Hand 8


Safai straddles 1,200
Elezra double-straddles 2,400
Negreanu (Kh Qh) calls 2,400
Harman (Ts 7s) calls 2,400
(D) Farha folds
(SB) Baxter (Kc Jc) calls 2,100
(BB) Gold folds
Safai (8s 3c) calls 1,200
Elezra (8c 3d) checks

Flop: Kd Td 7c
Baxter checks
Safai checks
Elezra checks
Negreanu bets 8,000
Harman raises to 32,000
Baxter folds
Safai folds
Elezra folds
Negreanu reraises all-in to 67,400 (he puts Harman all-in)
Harman calls 35,400

(Players agree to run it twice; Safai asks if they are getting just the
last two cards twice or two entire boards)

Turn1: Js
River1: 9s
------
Turn2: As
River2: Qc



EQ: +41K$ ( DN won 148K$ pot so +105K$EV)
EV hand:+105K$
EV: -23K$

/-*/-*/-*/-*/*-

/-*/-*/-*/-*

Season 5
Hand 5

Ziigmund (Kc Jh) folds
Negreanu (Tc 9c) raises to 3,000
Eastgate (Th 7c) folds
Doyle (9s 2h) folds
Greenstein (Ts 3h) folds
(D) Dwan (8d 7s) calls 3,000
(SB) Benyamine (9h 3d) folds
(BB) Elezra (Ah Ac) reraises to 11,000
Negreanu calls 8,000
Dwan calls 8,000

Flop: Qc 4h 2c
Elezra bets 17,100
Negreanu raises to 44,100
Dwan folds
Elezra reraises to 119,100
Negreanu re-reraises all-in to 226,300 (he puts Elezra all-in, Daniel barely has Eli covered)
Elezra calls 107,200

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 5d
River1: 6s
------
Turn2: 3s
River2: Js


EQ:33% of 500K$
Ev hand: -165K$
Ev total: -188K$

/-*/-*/-*/*-/*-/-

Season 5
Hand 8

(Doyle and Greenstein away)

Benyamine (Kh 4s) folds
Elezra (4c 2s) folds
Ziigmund (Jd 6d) raises to 4,500
(D) Negreanu (Kc Qh) calls 4,500
(SB) Eastgate (Ts 5s) folds
(BB) Dwan (Qc 8s) folds

Flop: Qd 6s 3h
Ziigmund bets 8,000
Negreanu calls 8,000

Turn: 6h
Ziigmund bets 27,000
Negreanu raises all-in to 102,400
Ziigmund calls 75,400

River: 3c

(Daniel quits and walks out)



EQ 5% of 234K$
EV hand : -11K$
EV total : -199K$

/-*/-*/*-/*-/-*/-*

Season 6

(Hansen away)

Mercier (7c 2d) folds
Negreanu (9d 7d) raises to 3,000
Dwan (Qs Qd) reraises to 11,200
Esfandiari (7h 3c) folds
(D) Dario (Ah 4d) folds
(SB) Elezra (6h 4c) folds
(BB) Ivey (8s 8h) calls 10,400
Negreanu calls 8,200

Flop: Jd 9h 4s
Ivey checks
Negreanu checks
Dwan bets 18,200
Ivey folds
Negreanu raises all-in to 88,400
Dwan calls 70,200

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 2h
River1: Jc
------
Turn2: Ac
River2: 9c


EQ: 22% of 213K$ ( 47K$)
EV hand : +60K$
EV total: -139K$

/-*/*-/-*/-*/*-/*-

Season 6
Hand 3

Dwan (Qh 3d) folds
Esfandiari (Js 3h) folds
Dario (Jc 9c) raises to 3,500
Elezra (8d 7d) reraises to 11,000
Ivey (Kc 5s) folds
(D) Mercier (Kd 6c) folds
(SB) Negreanu (Ks Qs) re-reraises all-in to 46,900
(BB) Hansen (4s 2c) folds
Dario folds
Elezra calls (before calling Negreanu allows Eli to turn up one of his cards = Qs)

(Players agree to run it twice)

Flop1: 9h 6s 5c (!)
Turn1: 4c
River1: 2h
------
Flop2: Qc Th 6h
Turn2: 9d
River2: Kh


EQ: 62% of 105K$
EV hand : -65K$
Ev total: -204K$

/*-/*-/-*/*-/-*/-

Season 6
Hand 5

Negreanu (7c 5c) raises to 3,000
Hansen (Qs Qd) calls 3,000
Dwan (7h 3c) folds
Esfandiari (Kh 7s) folds
(D) Elezra (Jd 3h) folds
(SB) Ivey (4s 2c) folds
(BB) Mercier (Jc Th) calls 2,200

Flop: 7d 5s 2s
Mercier checks
Negreanu bets 6,500
Hansen raises to 21,000
Mercier folds
Negreanu reraises to 71,000
Hansen re-reraises all-in to 195,300 (Hansen has Negreanu covered)
Negreanu calls all-in 124,300

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 5h
River1: 8h
------
Turn2: Td
River2: As



EQ 70% of 405K$
Ev hand: +120K$
EV total : -84K$

/-*/-*/-*/-*/*-

Season 6
Hand 8

Matasow (Kd Kc) calls 800
Benyamine (7c 5s) folds
Elky (Qh 4s) folds
Galfond (5d 3s) folds
Negreanu (9c 8c) calls 800
(D) Elezra (Ad 7h) raises to 5,000
(SB) Dwan (Ac 2d) folds
(BB) Doyle (Jd 6s) folds
Matasow calls 4,200
Negreanu calls 4,200

Flop: Ks 9d 9h
Matasow checks
Negreanu checks
Elezra bets 8,800
Matasow calls 8,800
Negreanu raises to 28,800
Elezra folds
Matasow reraises to 68,800
Negreanu re-reraises all-in to 151,300 (Daniel has Matasow covered)
Matasow calls all-in 82,500

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 4c
River1: 7d
------
Turn2: 2c
River2: Jh


EQ 4% of 345K$
Ev hand: -14K$
EV total: -98K$

/*-/-*/-*/-*/-*/-*

Season 6
Hand 11

(Elezra away)

Doyle straddles 1,600
Matasow (Ac Qc) calls 1,600
Benyamine (Jd 5d) calls 1,600
Elky (Kd 8d) calls 1,600
(D) Galfond (7h 3h) calls 1,600
(SB) Negreanu (Th Tc) raises to 16,000
(BB) Dwan (9h 8s) folds
Doyle (4h 3c) folds
Matasow reraises to 45,000
Benyamine folds
Elky folds
Galfond folds
Negreanu calls 29,000

Flop: 7c 6h 4c
Negreanu checks (dark)
Matasow bets all-in 199,100 (Matasow has Negreanu covered)
Negreanu calls all-in 199,100

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: 2d
River1: 8c
------
Turn2: Td
River2: 2c


EQ: 48% of 504K$
EV hand : -242K$
EV total: -340K$
/*/-/-*/*-/-*/*-/*-

Season 6

Hand 12

(Matasow is leaving the table)

Elky (Qc 4d) folds
Galfond (7c 2h) folds
Negreanu (Jh 6h) raises to 4,200
Elezra (Th 6c) folds
(D) Dwan (Tc 2s) folds
(SB) Doyle (7s 5s) calls 3,800
(BB) Benyamine (Ac 5c) calls 3,400

Flop: 6d 4h 3d
Doyle checks
Benyamine checks
Negreanu bets 10,500
Doyle raises all-in to 69,800
Benyamine folds
Negreanu calls 59,300

(Players agree to run it twice)

Turn1: Td
River1: 8c
------
Turn2: 4c
River2: 2c


EQ:8% of 160K$
Ev hand: -13K$
EV total: -353K$

Sorted by season.
Daniel's bad luck in HSP is more on the cooler side of variance.
Still 600BB of EV.

I think there is one error In the JJ vs AA hand with Barry. I lost with JJ to AA and my EV total went from 88k down to 54k I think it's supposed to go from 88k to 122k. Either way I'm golden because I bet over 300k! Thanks man PM me your screen name on Stars.

waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah

give the guy 10% imo :P

and why would your EV go up when you lose a 19-81 when ur the 19? It should go up when you lose the 19-81 as the 81%

I think flopped nuts getting cracked multiple times were more brutal.
TT vs AQs against Matusow was pretty bad once the T hit on the turn, especially right after he gave the "This is how you play poker boys" speech after coolering you.(house vs trip 9s hand)

Your EV goes up when you lose any hand.. unless you're 0% to win. Think about it. It just goes up a lot more if you're the 81% than if you're the 19%.

EQ:32% of 120K$
Ev hand:+81K$
EV total: -60K$

/-*/-*/-*Hand 5

Season 2
Juanda folds
Laak folds
Elezra (Qs Jh) raises to 2,400
Grey folds
Forrest (9d 7d) calls 2,400
(D) Negreanu (Jd Jc) reraises to 12,000
(SB) Lindgren folds
(BB) Greenstein (As Ah) re-reraises to 79,500
Elezra folds (Qs is exposed when he mucks)
Forrest folds
Negreanu calls 67,500

Flop: Qc 6d 6h
Turn: 5s
River: 4h


EQ: 20% of 170K$
EV hand : -34K$
Ev total: -94K$

/-*/-*/-*/-*/

Corrected

It's not wrong to say that you run pretty bad in these situations

degen ITT

hmm l2read

all imma say is the beats daniel took has had an effect on his game. You can tell he is a little shell shocked. You know he should be betting but he will check because f his horrible luck.

IE: Daniel had KJ vs PA underpair (77 I believe)

flop came JJ ** A....and daniel pretty much played the check call game out of fear. I agree with Gabe Kaplan when he says he made way more money than he should have in that hand but he still played it scared/weak (which again I dont blame him)

I would bet barryg1 has run worse on all in in than anyone else on hsp.

100 dollars on ps

Fearmek, I think you missed the following DN All-In hand:

Season 2 Episode 6 Hand 2: DN A9cc < Farha AK on 7c2c2h flop (52,200 pot)

and you graciously left off a few hands where Daniel was drawing dead (and one chopped pot flip) that do not affect +EV calcs.

Plus I am a little peeved that you did not at least acknowledge the hand histories posted by me and others which took hundreds of hours to compile and post.

Anyway, good job bud.

Yeah especially when he got it in with J9 against Dwan's AA on Jxx for $550k and hit a 9 on the turn.