Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
This is definitely wrong. His raise on the flop was of an UTG raiser with like 5 people left to act behind him. He's not doing this with air that often. His bet on the turn followed two really strong calls on the flop... again he's not doing this with air that often.
I think that to assume that's he's bluffing over 90% of the time here is ridiculous.
Well first, he didn't have air technically. His original raise of barry was to test barry's will to continue with whatever pair that barry had and just in the case that barry had 88ish or AKs AQs, he had the best hand. It's not totally unreasonable to find out where Q10 is even with that many people behind.
Once Eastgate called, he knew he had a 2 and barry had a big O/P. Given all that information, obviously it is really strong to try to bluff the turn, but again his p/f range matters in deciding what he has because it is exteremely unlikely that he has 2x in EP. Could he have 1010, possibly, but you can tell me whether it is +/-EV to give up pots with aces and trips on a 21027 board against durrr after he raised the flop strong and continued with a gross bet on turn (on tv).
Another way of putting it is do you think he makes that bet against any1 else at the table if he puts someone else at the table specifically on a big O/P or trips? Noone else gives up.
On the numbers, his p/f range indicates 10 to 1 air / monster, what his air / monster range is after he makes that bet I don't know, but I strongly suspect any other player at the table or knows how he plays will gladly stack off with aa or 24.