High Stakes Poker S5 Episode 2 thread

[jjshabado]

Originally Posted by josecuervos

This fold by Eastgate is so exploitable it's not even funny. If everytime a LAG double barrels you fold trips on that board you are gonna get owned all day. Terrible lay down by Peter Eastgate.

lol, if you call off your stack there every time it's also exploitable.

[blankoblanco]

what's funny to me is that there probably wouldn't have been one single person who called eastgate's fold bad if dwan had held A2 there. everyone would say "well yeah, it's not that hard of a fold... even tom is not crazy enough to make a play there when PE obviously has trips and BG is strong too"

[FullTimeGrinder]

How long before the 3rd season is up? Its today right?

[Joseph Hewes]

Originally Posted by blankoblanco

what's funny to me is that there probably wouldn't have been one single person who called eastgate's fold bad if dwan had held A2 there. everyone would say "well yeah, it's not that hard of a fold... even tom is not crazy enough to make a play there when PE obviously has trips and BG is strong too"

That is funny.

[Akileos]

What from now on will be known as "The Hand" was a tough spot for greenstein

It boils down to this

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

376,992 games 0.066 secs 5,712,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:


Hand 0: 23.903% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 10.627% { Jd9s }
Hand 2: 16.274% { QcTc }
Hand 3: 02.833% { As9c }
Hand 4: 05.290% { 4h2d }
Hand 5: 11.325% { Kd4d }
Hand 6: 13.333% { 7h6s }
Hand 7: 16.415% { 3c3d }

That's a brutal fact that cannot be escaped.
_________________
put on a bold face and play your hand for a hundred times what it is worth
Mark Twain

[jjshabado]

Originally Posted by Akileos

What from now on will be known as "The Hand" was a tough spot for greenstein

It boils down to this

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

376,992 games 0.066 secs 5,712,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:


Hand 0: 23.903% { AcAh }
Hand 1: 10.627% { Jd9s }
Hand 2: 16.274% { QcTc }
Hand 3: 02.833% { As9c }
Hand 4: 05.290% { 4h2d }
Hand 5: 11.325% { Kd4d }
Hand 6: 13.333% { 7h6s }
Hand 7: 16.415% { 3c3d }

That's a brutal fact that cannot be escaped.
_________________
put on a bold face and play your hand for a hundred times what it is worth
Mark Twain

I don't get it.

[markksman]

Stay tuned for episode 3 when Durrrr puts Eastgate on the spot with his pocket jacks when flop comes Jc Kc 10c then a Jd shows up on the turn but Eastgate gets spooked when Durrrr follows up his big flop raise with 120k more on the turn. Eastgate realizes Durrrr must have the Royal Flush and folds. Standard.

[Carnivore]

Originally Posted by jjshabado

I don't get it.

The point is when the flop is 8 way AA usually won't be the best hand. Not even 1/4 of the time.

[blankoblanco]

but the action didn't take place on a random flop, it took place on a specific flop. it happened to come T22 which as barry pointed out is one of the few non-A flops where his hand is probably still best most of the time, since TT probably wouldn't have raised and most of his opponents have very few 2s in their range

[Akileos]

Originally Posted by blankoblanco

but the action didn't take place on a random flop, it took place on a specific flop.

From my perspective, I was making a fairly accurate observation. When 8 rational players see a flop those that don't hit fold to aggression those that hit remain.

Even though against 2 players preflop AA has a 60 plus chance of prevailing, after 8 players see the flop and 5 fold leaving a total of 3 remaining players battling for the pot, then AA chances of prevailing do not move up from approximately 30 to approximately 60 plus. They remain at approximately 30, barring any additional information.

Once one player bets substantially and the second remaining opponent flat calls, AA has additional information to conclude that its chances of prevailing have been further reduced. Assuming rational players.

IMO

[josecuervos]

Originally Posted by jjshabado

lol, if you call off your stack there every time it's also exploitable.

Against an oponnent like Durrr you should probably call it off a high percentage of the time. The fact that the stakes are high should not matter that much. If you are scared to play that deep, buy in shorter.

[Veil]

Originally Posted by blankoblanco

okay, my bad, veil is leveling. should've been obvious nobody could be that much of a tool, but my level detector was broken or something

wp, sir, wp