Quote:
Originally Posted by Moya
I don't understand the Durr/Eastgate/Barry. Especially from Barrys point of view.
I could kinda see EastGate folding, because of his 4 kicker. 100% Durr would have reraised if he had TT, and with Eastgate sticking around Barry certainly put him on the 2.
Eastgate folded leaving Barry heads up with Durr, and especially with Durr's image I don't see how Barry could possibly fold.
There's a lot to this hand which goes beyond what most of the 2+2 community can really decipher, including myself, so I'll do the best I could to explain my version of the thought process.
Barry wanted callers for his aces, knowing that he was the tightest player at the table, he figures he could raise the standard 3X BB and get 2 callers, most likely Dwan and Eli (who were the most active at the table). The problem is that no one really took his image into consideration and that's what started the family pot of 20,000.
The flop is a
standard bet from Greenstein's analysis. Of course there are 8 people in the pot, and the only hands that has him beat are 2x, 2-2, and 10-10 has him beat. You can logically knock out all 7-2, 8-2, 9-2, 10-2, J-2, Q-2, and K-2 combinations, which leaves us with 34 combinations of hands which beat AA out of about 1,100, or 3% of total hands. With 8 people in the pot with those odds, he felt he could take down the pot right there.
Durr's raise is
standard for him because he knows these calculations, and by representing that he has a 2x hand to Barry would really freeze him. As it worked out, everyone behind him folded except for Eastgate who just calls. Any competent poker player knows when a player calls with that texture of the board, chances are very likely that he has a 2x hand, but not too powerful a kicker. When it comes back to Barry, he's almost 100% sure that one of these players has a 2, but from his thought process, he called an additional 20,000 or so with 90,00 in the pot, hoping to spike an A when he has the wrong pot odds to call. I believe even the implied odds were not in his favor because Dwan and Eastgate basically knew he had an overpair from his lead-in bet on the flop.
The turn works out for Dwan when Eastgate checks. If Eastgate bet into that pot about 85 to 90,000, Tom would give up that hand, and Barry would ship his stack over to Eastgate, but by Eastgate checking, he basically tells Dwan "I have a weak deuce, and a big bet in relation to my stack would push me out of the pot". And that's exactly what Dwan did.
Also, Dwan must've realized that Eastgate plays a straightforward game and hasn't played higher than 25-50 online, and was not prepared for that move from Dwan that many high stakes online players would do looking at the images of Eastgate and Greenstein. The images of Eastgate and Greenstein worked perfectly in Dwan's favor. In a sense it's a pretty logical concept that could go back to high school math.