2014 WSOP Main Event - Oct 19 - 9p ET on ESPN - Page 2 - Poker Card Room

My guess is that Newhouse watched Cole play really passive on the river, so he may tought his range was polarized. He either had a 2pair hand + or air, so his call with A4 is ok

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10-21-2014 , 09:13 AM

#27

TieDyePanda~

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 109

Cole had a sick run in August. 63k between 3 tourneys. Grandpa was on a heater!

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10-21-2014 , 04:07 PM

#28

ZeckoRiver

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,590

Those side events with matusow are pretty annoying and tilting, fast forward them all.

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10-21-2014 , 05:59 PM

#29

There Is A Light

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,923

Most boring main event to watch.

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10-22-2014 , 12:59 AM

#30

tuq

TEEJ

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 46,365

The side game series is routinely the most enjoyable part of each broadcast. Get legit lols out of most of them. The thing where Hellmuth got called out for his atrocious math on the last episode was great.

But I suppose it's cooler to posture and be all like ME BROADCAST IS SRS BZNS rather than admit something on ESPN made you laugh.

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10-22-2014 , 01:08 AM

#31

SpursDynasty

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 610

what a boring wsop this year.

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10-22-2014 , 02:50 PM

#32

There Is A Light

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,923

Was rewatching the 2011 broadcasts recently and forgot how sick it was. Every other hand on day 7 seemed to a 5-bet levelling war. This year 75% of the hands they've shown have been flips.

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10-22-2014 , 04:55 PM

#33

ZeckoRiver

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 5,590

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuq

I love a good laugh as much as anyone. Trying to slide cards into dealer box or rifling chips just doesn't do it for me.

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10-22-2014 , 05:48 PM

#34

NWAF99

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 284

Quote:

Originally Posted by oakton55

This hand is in reference to the 2nd episode posted in this thread, 21:20

Hand 1: 17bb shortstack open jams 17bb and I call with AK from the bb and lose a race vs a mid pair.

Hand 2: Literally the VERY NEXT HAND. Devonshire, who had been playing tight over the last 2 orbits since I got moved to his table, opens from MP (from the lo jack or possibly 1 position earlier than the lojack), to 130k at 30k/60k with 10k antes (big antes). I look down at JJ from the sb and game flow wise I am slightly inclined to "rep tilt." From these positions 48bb deep, JJ from the sb against a TAG is typically a flat call, but I thought I would get more credit than usual for being light here because I just lost a decent size pot the previous hand. Not only that, when I make it only 375k over a 130k open, given the size of the antes and the price he is getting, he should be defending a large portion of his opening range. I am happy to take it down pre flop and I also have an equity advantage against his calling range.

He 4bets to 775,000, however, which put me in a really awkward spot. I have 2,885,000 to start the hand and he covers. I expected that he would flat 99-TT, AQ, KQ, AJs, some weaker suited hands and some other lower pairs and weaker broadways. I expect his 4bet value range to be QQ+ AK, and JJ has 36.2% equity against that range, and I need him to fold 29% to my 5 bet jam to break even in terms of chip ev. Given game flow and what I perceived my image to be, jamming > folding, but I think it is really, really close because many players just don't mess around 4betting light over a sb 3bet from 3 or 4 off of the button.

The other option of course is calling. I need to realize 23.5% equity given the price I'm getting to break even. Let's assume that his 4bet value range is AK and QQ+, and conservatively say that he is only bluffing 26% of the time. If that is the case, folding is better than jamming because we need folds 29% of the time to for a jam to be break even. But if we assign him 12 bluff combos (A9s, A8s, 65s) to balance out his 34 value combos(QQ+ AK), JJ is going to the flop with 45.4% equity.

The problem, though, is that even though JJ might have over 45% equity against his 4bet range, we'll be out of position with an awkward stack to pot ratio with a range that is typically perceived as capped and includes basically 0 AK combos. But the good thing is that we only need to realize 23.5% equity, so JJ can profitably continue if it can realize 52% of its pre flop equity. It is really hard to know what R truly is in this spot (R is the percentage of equity that I'm able to realize post flop, knowing that I'm going to get owned a lot of the time while being OOP with a capped range). But I'm going to assume that R > 52%

Basically what this means is that because I only have to realize about half of my equity post flop to make my pre flop call profitable, that means that I don't need to win the pot that often to justify my preflop call. The flop comes Kh6s2s, c/c. Turn Qhh and he overbet jams 2.1M into 1.7M. It is a very strange line to take for value. Given my initial preflop assumptions, A9hh and A8hh make a lot of sense. QQ would take this line but is more likely to bet smaller on the turn. The SPR is such that he can easily get away with slowplaying a lot of his value range on the flop because he doesn't have to worry about building a pot to get stacks in. There is a lot of unpredictability in how randoms play. I had 0 history with Devonshire, so even though his line seems atypical to take for value, given my preflop read, I just didn't think he had enough bluff combos preflop for me to worry about defending JJ on this board runout. When I just learned that not only was he bluffing, he A) opened 64o from MP and B) 4bet over a sb 3bet with this trash, and C) isn't afraid to open the clip, I was surprised as f#ck. He was fortunate a scary board ran out against my particular hand, and over the long run his play might not show a profit against my range, but I give Bryan full credit for making a sick play on one of the biggest stages in poker.

That is fantastically in depth anaylsis, thanks for sharing........did you think all of that whilst playing or more after the event?

Another question I have is, and forgive me if this has been asked before, but how do ESPN know the hands if it doesnt get to showdown?

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10-22-2014 , 07:27 PM

#35

kt2210

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 19

Quote:

Originally Posted by There Is A Light

Was rewatching the 2011 broadcasts recently and forgot how sick it was. Every other hand on day 7 seemed to a 5-bet levelling war. This year 75% of the hands they've shown have been flips.

I just watched a few of the great old ones myself and am hoping the main event final table brings some excitement this year.

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10-22-2014 , 10:29 PM

#36

oakton55

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 491

Quote:

Originally Posted by NWAF99

I usually have a pretty decent feel for how equities run in real time from analyzing similar hands away from the table and that was the gist of my thought process in real time, but I used ball park equity estimates instead of the the precise numbers I worked out away from the table.

Any hand played on the ESPN Main Stage or the 4 other secondary feature tables have hole card cams built into special tables.

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10-23-2014 , 12:43 AM

#37

vazdog33

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 522

+1 to being insanely tilted by Dan Smith and figuratively wanting to bash his face in with pretty much everything he does.

And same for Selbst FWIW (she was mentioned earlier in this thread in a similar way)

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10-23-2014 , 01:45 AM

#38

Nwildcat

see red

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by tuq

The side game series is routinely the most enjoyable part of each broadcast.

This is the problem.

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10-23-2014 , 05:37 PM

#39

tuq

TEEJ

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 46,365

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neemahb

This is the problem.

Ha. Yeah, good point...

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10-23-2014 , 09:53 PM

#40

Munchkins Hero

journeyman

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 278

Quote:

Originally Posted by TieDyePanda~

Hahaha yes! I'm exactly the same way with Selbst. Just something about her that's always rubs me the wrong way.. Now back to Dan... He comes off pretty smug IMO. Just his tone of voice when speaking to others at the table makes me want to bash his face in. But I do respect his game he's a very SOLID player.

Definitely respect his game but you nailed my feelings watching him perfectly.

Not often I root for someone to take a bad beat, but happened watching him. Lmao

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10-24-2014 , 12:03 AM

#41

slowkey

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 270

Nobody shot Rystadt in the parking lot?

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10-24-2014 , 10:41 AM

#42

BruceWizayne

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 902

Cole was entertaining at the table. I didn't find him to be annoying.

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10-24-2014 , 09:15 PM

#43

KansasCT

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 10,074

me neither. people in this forum are just annoyed by everything.

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10-24-2014 , 10:05 PM

#44

vazdog33

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 522

Annoyed by everything?!???

Let's see, just off the top of my head:

Dan smith (extremely annoying)
Side bet series (extremely annoying)
Cole (mildly annoying)
Maria Ho (mildly annoying)
Matt Waxman (mildly annoying)
Jack Effel's face in the background (extremely annoying)

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10-24-2014 , 10:13 PM

#45

KansasCT

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 10,074

...you just proved my point

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10-25-2014 , 11:02 AM

#46

peterpjames

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 5,833

Politano seemed like a good guy asking KingDan why he called clock

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10-26-2014 , 02:30 AM

#47

YappingYoda

banned

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 779

Quote:

Originally Posted by vazdog33

Wow, you sound a fun person to be around, since everything seems to annoy you.

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10-27-2014 , 12:07 AM

#48

Nwildcat

see red

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,256

Quote:

Originally Posted by YappingYoda

Wow, you sound a fun person to be around, since everything seems to annoy you.

That's the thing, he is the fun person. It's a shame everyone around him has to be so damn annoying.

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10-27-2014 , 04:21 PM

#49

Flartels

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 484

Quote:

Originally Posted by vazdog33

Annoyed by everything?!???

Let's see, just off the top of my head:

Dan smith (extremely annoying)
Side bet series (extremely annoying)
Cole (mildly annoying)
Maria Ho (mildly annoying)
Matt Waxman (mildly annoying)
Jack Effel's face in the background (extremely annoying)

I concur. What a annoying guy....even when he was with his friends

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10-29-2014 , 06:11 PM

#50

bork_bork

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 64

Quote:

Originally Posted by peterpjames

Politano seemed like a good guy asking KingDan why he called clock

I thought the same thing. IDK how long it took and I guess kingdan was right on his read but it would take a loooong time before I'd call the clock on someone in that spot

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