Originally Posted by oakton55
This hand is in reference to the 2nd episode posted in this thread, 21:20
Hand 1: 17bb shortstack open jams 17bb and I call with AK from the bb and lose a race vs a mid pair.
Hand 2: Literally the VERY NEXT HAND. Devonshire, who had been playing tight over the last 2 orbits since I got moved to his table, opens from MP (from the lo jack or possibly 1 position earlier than the lojack), to 130k at 30k/60k with 10k antes (big antes). I look down at JJ from the sb and game flow wise I am slightly inclined to "rep tilt." From these positions 48bb deep, JJ from the sb against a TAG is typically a flat call, but I thought I would get more credit than usual for being light here because I just lost a decent size pot the previous hand. Not only that, when I make it only 375k over a 130k open, given the size of the antes and the price he is getting, he should be defending a large portion of his opening range. I am happy to take it down pre flop and I also have an equity advantage against his calling range.
He 4bets to 775,000, however, which put me in a really awkward spot. I have 2,885,000 to start the hand and he covers. I expected that he would flat 99-TT, AQ, KQ, AJs, some weaker suited hands and some other lower pairs and weaker broadways. I expect his 4bet value range to be QQ+ AK, and JJ has 36.2% equity against that range, and I need him to fold 29% to my 5 bet jam to break even in terms of chip ev. Given game flow and what I perceived my image to be, jamming > folding, but I think it is really, really close because many players just don't mess around 4betting light over a sb 3bet from 3 or 4 off of the button.
The other option of course is calling. I need to realize 23.5% equity given the price I'm getting to break even. Let's assume that his 4bet value range is AK and QQ+, and conservatively say that he is only bluffing 26% of the time. If that is the case, folding is better than jamming because we need folds 29% of the time to for a jam to be break even. But if we assign him 12 bluff combos (A9s, A8s, 65s) to balance out his 34 value combos(QQ+ AK), JJ is going to the flop with 45.4% equity.
The problem, though, is that even though JJ might have over 45% equity against his 4bet range, we'll be out of position with an awkward stack to pot ratio with a range that is typically perceived as capped and includes basically 0 AK combos. But the good thing is that we only need to realize 23.5% equity, so JJ can profitably continue if it can realize 52% of its pre flop equity. It is really hard to know what R truly is in this spot (R is the percentage of equity that I'm able to realize post flop, knowing that I'm going to get owned a lot of the time while being OOP with a capped range). But I'm going to assume that R > 52%
Basically what this means is that because I only have to realize about half of my equity post flop to make my pre flop call profitable, that means that I don't need to win the pot that often to justify my preflop call. The flop comes Kh6s2s, c/c. Turn Qhh and he overbet jams 2.1M into 1.7M. It is a very strange line to take for value. Given my initial preflop assumptions, A9hh and A8hh make a lot of sense. QQ would take this line but is more likely to bet smaller on the turn. The SPR is such that he can easily get away with slowplaying a lot of his value range on the flop because he doesn't have to worry about building a pot to get stacks in. There is a lot of unpredictability in how randoms play. I had 0 history with Devonshire, so even though his line seems atypical to take for value, given my preflop read, I just didn't think he had enough bluff combos preflop for me to worry about defending JJ on this board runout. When I just learned that not only was he bluffing, he A) opened 64o from MP and B) 4bet over a sb 3bet with this trash, and C) isn't afraid to open the clip, I was surprised as f#ck. He was fortunate a scary board ran out against my particular hand, and over the long run his play might not show a profit against my range, but I give Bryan full credit for making a sick play on one of the biggest stages in poker.